Where does Gausman go from here?

[Frobby]

First 15 starts: 1-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, .316 BABIP.

Last 15 starts: 8-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, .305 BABIP.

On the one hand, you could say he was the victim of bad run support in the first half, and got a little unlucky with his runs allowed considering his other peripherals, and his luck was better in the second half. On the other hand, you could say that he did a better job of bearing down in close games in the second half, got deeper into games and seemed more composed. Any way you look at it, the bottom line results were better in the second half.

So what do we think of Gausman for next year? His FIP (4.10) was much higher than his ERA (3.61), mostly because Gausman pitched very well with men on base (.207/.249/.323), which may not be a sustainable skill. You could look at his FIP and say you expect him to regress, you could look at his second half results and say you think he can sustain that over a full year, or you could look at his entire 2016 and say that this is about who you expect him to be, but perhaps with a better record due to better run support.

I'm an optimist. I thought Gausman's breaking stuff got much better as the season progressed and to me that was a big reason why he got better results in the second half. He doesn't have great breaking stuff, but it was respectable and he had better command of it, and that kept the hitters honest and not just up there guessing fastball or change-up or blasting the occasional hanging breaking pitch. I look for Gausman to take another step forward in 2017.

[canonfaz]

I agree that his breaking stuff improved as the year went on. Hopefully that is something that he starts out with next year. Sometimes though pitchers just pitch better as the year goes on. I'm hoping that is not the case with Gausman. I'm confident that he will have a sub 3.50 ERA next year.

[Phantom]

He was the exact same pitcher the entire year (if anything he was a little worse in the second half) he just had his luck turn from bad to good. His xFip was 3.75 in the first half and 3.78 in the second half. If he can get his HR/FB down to league average, I think we can expect an ERA below 4 next season.

[Aristotelian]

Incremental improvement would be fantastic. Just a little more consistency. I think he can get by without a wipeout slider if he can pitch ahead in the count and command the FB. Fangraphs has him at 3.0 WAR which is pretty darn good.

[CanadianOriole]

1.30ish WHIP won't get him into the ace tier. He needs to shave .12-.15 off of that - then we're talking. It's pretty much all on the hits side - he makes too many mistakes and gives up too many hits. It's pretty well all righties too. Righties hit .288 with an .812 OPS off Gausman this year. It pretty much falls on his breaking stuff. If he can beat the production of RH batters off him down to a reasonable level - he can be a true #1 starter at the MLB level.

[backwardsk]

Did he throw his splitter as much in the first half as he did in the second half? His fastball plays better when he has a good feel for the split.

His consistency, along with Bundy, will be the biggest key in 2017, IMO.

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[Ohfan67]

He was the exact same pitcher the entire year (if anything he was a little worse in the second half) he just had his luck turn from bad to good. His xFip was 3.75 in the first half and 3.78 in the second half. If he can get his HR/FB down to league average, I think we can expect an ERA below 4 next season.

I think this is the most accurate assessment. I think overall Gausman had a good year and the second half "improvement" is a mirage. He was basically the same pitcher all season, especially if you look at the stats that are best at predicting the future. We should expect a 3.75-ish ERA next year if he keeps it up. Maybe a little lower if he gets his HR's' down and certainly he will win more games if he gets better run support.

[Il BuonO]

First 15 starts: 1-6, 4.15 ERA, 1.30 WHIP, 8.5 K/9, .316 BABIP.

Last 15 starts: 8-6, 3.10 ERA, 1.29 WHIP, 8.9 K/9, .305 BABIP.

On the one hand, you could say he was the victim of bad run support in the first half, and got a little unlucky with his runs allowed considering his other peripherals, and his luck was better in the second half. On the other hand, you could say that he did a better job of bearing down in close games in the second half, got deeper into games and seemed more composed. Any way you look at it, the bottom line results were better in the second half.

So what do we think of Gausman for next year? His FIP (4.10) was much higher than his ERA (3.61), mostly because Gausman pitched very well with men on base (.207/.249/.323), which may not be a sustainable skill. You could look at his FIP and say you expect him to regress, you could look at his second half results and say you think he can sustain that over a full year, or you could look at his entire 2016 and say that this is about who you expect him to be, but perhaps with a better record due to better run support.

I'm an optimist. I thought Gausman's breaking stuff got much better as the season progressed and to me that was a big reason why he got better results in the second half. He doesn't have great breaking stuff, but it was respectable and he had better command of it, and that kept the hitters honest and not just up there guessing fastball or change-up or blasting the occasional hanging breaking pitch. I look for Gausman to take another step forward in 2017.

Agree with this assessment. And keeping them honest with it and sequencing will go a long way.

[ChuckS]

Really happy with Gausman in the second half. Think he could be a solid no. 2ish starter for this team for a long time. Never thought he was going to be an ace with only two plus pitches and a fastball that catches the middle of the plate a little too often.

Bundy can be the no. 1 and Gausman can be the no. 2. I am perfectly fine with that.

[MDtransplant757]

[esmd]

I think he has a breakout season next year and wins somewhere around 15 games with an ERA in the mid-3's. Maybe more wins if we're lucky.

[MDtransplant757]

I think he has a breakout season next year and wins somewhere around 15 games with an ERA in the mid-3's. Maybe more wins if we're lucky.

Or hit when he starts

[VeveJones007]

Fastball command has been a little too inconsistent. If he can make some more strides in keeping the ball out of the middle of the plate, he'll take the next step. Otherwise, he'll remain an up and down #3/4.

[brianod]

I expect him to become a solid 2 next year. May never progress above that, or he may become an ace. I don't expect an ace next year but won't rule it out for the future.

[Ohfan67]

He was the exact same pitcher the entire year (if anything he was a little worse in the second half) he just had his luck turn from bad to good. His xFip was 3.75 in the first half and 3.78 in the second half. If he can get his HR/FB down to league average, I think we can expect an ERA below 4 next season.

Frobby - I'm curious what you think about this take on Gausman's year? It seems that you are relying more on intangibles in your assessment of Gausman. Not trying to be critical, but honestly curious about your view of Gausman.