Trading Manny Machado - Buster Olney Article

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, MDtransplant757 said:

Something like that. That's why the Caps never do well against Pittsburgh or the Rangers. What i was getting at was that the format has the potential to really punctuate how awesome playoff baseball is. 

That doesn't seem better to me.

I'd rather they have less days off and have to use their whole pitching staff. 

[MDtransplant757]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

That doesn't seem better to me.

I'd rather they have less days off and have to use their whole pitching staff. 

That's what they do in hockey unless it's shifting to somewhere else or the series is over. That would be covered in this scenario. 

[weams]

Sometimes it's best just to go out on top.

[CheeryO]

3 hours ago, Hallas said:

I don't really subscribe to this theory.  People in Maine probably don't really care that much about baseball, and carriage fees on cable tv are becoming less important.  This logic could stretch pretty far to nonsensical positions, such as the Blue Jays media market being the largest of them all, with the entire ~35 million person population of Canada being counted as part of its region.

edit to add: I don't doubt Boston's revenue potential, but it's not because of its market size.  It's because the Red Sox are a founding member of the AL, and they've had many more years to develop a following, and because their century of marketing efforts by the team have resulted in the team becoming part of Boston's cultural fabric.

What makes you say people in Maine don't care about baseball?  There are people in Maine who commute all the way to Boston.  Ryan Flaherty is from Maine.  And Maine doesn't even have 1.5 million people, meaning in terms of population it's a smaller part of New England.  

And there's nothing nonsensical about saying the Blue Jays have Canada all to themselves.  Presumably the big networks in Canada are paying for the rights to Blue Jays games every day -- and not to some team in the U.S. like the Red Sox, Yankees or Mariners.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

Sometimes it's best just to go out on top.

There is going out on top and there is going out in the WC game.

[weams]

It's Baltimore, just winning is the top. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

It's Baltimore, just winning is the top. 

So 2013 felt like the top to you?

[CheeryO]

1 hour ago, esmd said:

I don't think it's an issue of the Orioles not being able to sign Manny.  I think they certainly could.  Problem is, they wouldn't have anything left to put a decent team around him.  These huge megadeals almost always end badly for the team.  Manny is a helluva player, but is one guy on your 25 man roster really worth 15% of your payroll?  Even for a team like the Dodgers, at 223M.  Let's say it costs 35M AAV to sign Manny as FA.  That's 15% (almost 16% really) of your payroll for one guy.  That leaves 188M for 24 other guys.  And that's really too simplistic, as it doesn't account for the rest of the 40 man roster, guys on the DL, etc.  It's also further complicated by the O's not being a team that can or will spend 223M.  Let's say the O's go 170M.  That 35M is 21.8% of the payroll.

It's just a terrible value, one that only the top two or three teams can begin to afford.  As good as Manny is, it's just a bad value.  They're better off trading him and (hopefully) getting a good return that can allow them to contend.

Yeah I argued this as well in an earlier post.  

I'd add that, if the O's are struggling in 2017, it would make more sense to extend Manny if the O's farm system was strong with a Red Sox or Dodger caliber pipeline of players on the way to join him.  If they feel they need to start trading, their thinness in the minors points in the direction of trading Manny (in addition to Britton, Jones, Tillman, etc.) even more than the fact that being a mid-market team on its own points to trading him.  

 

[weams]

16 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

So 2013 felt like the top to you?

Yep. Top.

[weams]

23 minutes ago, CheeryO said:

What makes you say people in Maine don't care about baseball?  There are people in Maine who commute all the way to Boston.  Ryan Flaherty is from Maine.  And Maine doesn't even have 1.5 million people, meaning in terms of population it's a smaller part of New England.  

And there's nothing nonsensical about saying the Blue Jays have Canada all to themselves.  Presumably the big networks in Canada are paying for the rights to Blue Jays games every day -- and not to some team in the U.S. like the Red Sox, Yankees or Mariners.

I know. And what if your team had that much of it's budget tied up in Jason Heyward! 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, weams said:

I know. And what if your team had that much of it's budget tied up in Jason Heyward! 

I'd be happy they just won the World Series.

[Hank Scorpio]

Given how top heavily this organization has been run the last 5 years, I have to think there's a better, more balanced sustainable way to do things. Winning and being organizationally responsible don't have to be mutually exclusive, do they?

I would be shopping both Machado and Britton this offseason to get a feel for possible return possibilities. If they're not traded by Spring Training - re-evaluate at the halfway point. In my humble opinion, two more winning seasons without a World Series, then losing Machado to market for whatever comp-pick it entails would be grossly irresponsible. With the right return, you can be equally competitive in the next two years.

 

[weams]

6 minutes ago, Hank Scorpio said:

Given how top heavily this organization has been run the last 5 years, I have to think there's a better, more balanced sustainable way to do things. Winning and being organizationally responsible don't have to be mutually exclusive, do they?

I would be shopping both Machado and Britton this offseason to get a feel for possible return possibilities. If they're not traded by Spring Training - re-evaluate at the halfway point. In my humble opinion, two more winning seasons without a World Series, then losing Machado to market for whatever comp-pick it entails would be grossly irresponsible. With the right return, you can be equally competitive in the next two years.

 

Yeah, the guys in charge until 2018 aren't doing it that way. 

[Hallas]

3 hours ago, cimota said:

It doesn't matter if people in Maine care about baseball or not. If they are in the Red Sox area and they have cable then the Red Sox are getting money.  Just like here where most people never watch an Orioles game yet they pay MASN if they have satellite or cable package. 

My understanding is that cable companies are not compelled to include regional sports networks if they don't want to.  They usually end up doing it because the market dictates as much, but it's not a requirement. As I said, all of Canada is in the Blue Jays' media market, but they certainly aren't getting a lot of viewers (or carriage fees) from Manitoba or British Columbia.

I believe parts of North Carolina is part of the Orioles' media region (and DC's) but I don't think your average North Carolina cable company includes MASN in their standard coverage.

[waroriole]

There just doesn't seem to be anything to talk about related to the O's this offseason. We can discuss a Machado trade, but they're just not going to do it. 

We're running basically the same team out there next year, and hope our luck improves. I can understand taking one more shot this season and trading him next offseason. Unfortunately, I don't see that happening either. I bet we're in the exact same position in 1 year, with the FO taking one more shot. 

Odds are 50/50 that Manny leaves and we get a pick to show for it.