Question for everyone on Posey

[bluehens45]

Lets just say Tampa takes Beckham, Pitt takes Alvarez, and KC takes Matusz. Will the O's take Posey? I know he excels all over, so he is a steal at 4. In my opinion im all over him. How does everyone else feel? Where would he play as an O?

[allstar1579]

Lets just say Tampa takes Beckham, Pitt takes Alvarez, and KC takes Matusz. Will the O's take Posey? I know he excels all over, so he is a steal at 4. In my opinion im all over him. How does everyone else feel? Where would he play as an O?

Probably about as much of a chance that they take Smoak, GBeck, or Matusz. I think there is a logjam depending on who is left at 4 between those players.

[allstar1579]

Just exactly what does that mean. If he graded out as a plus defender at SS, it's hard to believe his college coach would have moved him to catcher. If Posey and Smoak are available I think it's a no-brainer to take Smoak. I haven't seen Posey's bat described as a potential power impact bat like Smoak's has. A lot of Posey's value comes from being a catcher. We already have one on the way. If we're going offense, let's take the best bat available. Until someone tells me that Posey grades out as a better offensive player than Smoak, I"m Smoaking.

Posey grades out above avg. at SS, but has limited range which is why he was moved to C. He has shown he can handle almost any position pretty well while still maintaining a solid bat.

Posey grades out VERY well with the bat, and has advantages over Smoak. Smoak will likely hit for more power, but Posey will hit for a better average. Think of Posey as a Casey Kotchman/Kevin Youkilis kind of bat. Should hit .300+ with 10-15 HR, unless he develops a bit more pop later. Of course his bat is much more desirable at C, but only grades behind guys like Smoak at 1B, or Alvarez at 3B because of the lack of power for a power position. At 2B, if he could play it well it would also play well, think Placido Polanco with a bit more pop.

[markpolis]

Just exactly what does that mean. If he graded out as a plus defender at SS, it's hard to believe his college coach would have moved him to catcher. If Posey and Smoak are available I think it's a no-brainer to take Smoak. I haven't seen Posey's bat described as a potential power impact bat like Smoak's has. A lot of Posey's value comes from being a catcher. We already have one on the way. If we're going offense, let's take the best bat available. Until someone tells me that Posey grades out as a better offensive player than Smoak, I"m Smoaking.

Edit. Forgot that Smoak & Weiters played for the same HS team. Sorry.

Agree with everything above, but FYI, Smoak and Wieters played summer ball together in high school, not for the same high school team.

[crawdad]

Posey grades out above avg. at SS, but has limited range which is why he was moved to C. He has shown he can handle almost any position pretty well while still maintaining a solid bat.

Posey grades out VERY well with the bat, and has advantages over Smoak. Smoak will likely hit for more power, but Posey will hit for a better average. Think of Posey as a Casey Kotchman/Kevin Youkilis kind of bat. Should hit .300+ with 10-15 HR, unless he develops a bit more pop later. Of course his bat is much more desirable at C, but only grades behind guys like Smoak at 1B, or Alvarez at 3B because of the lack of power for a power position. At 2B, if he could play it well it would also play well, think Placido Polanco with a bit more pop.

Wow, I never associated Kevin Youkilis with Placido Polanco.

[markpolis]

Lets just say Tampa takes Beckham, Pitt takes Alvarez, and KC takes Matusz. Will the O's take Posey? I know he excels all over, so he is a steal at 4. In my opinion im all over him. How does everyone else feel? Where would he play as an O?

In trying to maintain Tony's request to limit redundant threads, you may want to read the threads below that discuss the merits of selecting Posey and if/how he projects at other postitions.

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63639

http://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/showthread.php?t=63253

[allstar1579]

Wow, I never associated Kevin Youkilis with Placido Polanco.

Yeah, I know, it looks funny when I re-read it too. I was more making reference to the high average ability with not so much pop. Youk is hitting for a bit more power this year, but I still think he tops out between 15-20. When you compare their stats Youkilis versus Polanco they are actually pretty similar except for Youk having a bit more pop. Polanco had 2 decent power years, but that was mostly fluke since he hasn't hit more than 10 any other year.

[allstar1579]

Agree with everything above, but FYI, Smoak and Wieters played summer ball together in high school, not for the same high school team.

Thanks, I couldn't remember if it was the same school or not, I knew it was something like that.

[LookinUp]

The simple answer to your question is that it depends where Jordan projects him playing. Obviously, if we think he profiles well at 2b for example, his relative value to the organization is higher than it is at catcher.

Many will disagree, saying that we should draft purely on our board versus on need. In theory, I don't disagree at all. However, with the relative valuation between someone like a Posey and others like GBek and Smoak being quite small (I assume), and the obvious elephant in the room (Weiters), drafting for need, or at least away from Weiters, is quite reasonable.

So, if they view him as a catcher only, his relative value to the O's goes down. If they view him as capable of playing any other position, his value remains high. It's all a matter of what Jordan et al think.

[markpolis]

Lets just say Tampa takes Beckham, Pitt takes Alvarez, and KC takes Matusz. Will the O's take Posey? I know he excels all over, so he is a steal at 4. In my opinion im all over him. How does everyone else feel? Where would he play as an O?

How do you know he "excels" all over? Do you know something no one else does? Are you saying this because he played all nine positions in one game? That hardly means he "excels" all over.

If Posey were still playing SS scouts project he would be a mid-first round pick (behind Tim Beckham and Gordon Beckham) so that should answer your question right there on whether or not he would be a "steal" at #4. If he projects as a mid-first round pick at SS he would project even lower at the other positions (2B,3B,1B,OF).

If you are going to move Posey from behind the plate then it would be a wasted pick. If the Orioles intend to move Wieters to 1B then they may consider selecting Posey. I have serious doubts the Orioles want to move Wieters from the catcher position this early in his career.

[Greg Pappas]

Lets just say Tampa takes Beckham, Pitt takes Alvarez, and KC takes Matusz. Will the O's take Posey? I know he excels all over, so he is a steal at 4. In my opinion im all over him. How does everyone else feel? Where would he play as an O?

We've discussed Posey quite a bit, with varying opinions, but there are a few things it seems that most would agree on...

*Posey is an outstanding prospect at catcher.

*Posey is a good prospect at SS/2B.

*Posey projects to hit roughly .280-.300 as a pro, with HR's ranging from as low as 10 to as high as 20, with good production and few SB's.

Okay, now there are a couple of thoughts about how the O's could use him.

A) We draft Posey to develop him as a catcher, where he has the most value. While Wieters is among the best prospects in baseball and our near certain future catcher, Posey could eventually be the backup/second catcher for us, playing 60 games behind the plate and perhaps DH'ing or filling in occassionally at SS/2B or even in the outfield. Posey would be used somewhat as other ML regulars have been used, whereas they are regular contributors, but don't play exclusively at one position. Wieters would catch 100'ish games or perhaps a bit more, but would DH or spot start at 1B most of the remaining games, allowing him to get 500+ AB's. This would allow both Wieters and Posey to extend their careers.

B) We draft Posey to develop him as a catcher and then when he is rocking the minors and a sure-thing-quite-ready-for-the-majors backstop, WE TRADE HIM. Catchers are in high demand, and a potential all-star and near certain quality catcher like Posey would garner serious value.

C) We draft Posey to play 2B or possibly SS. This is the most unlikely scenario.

[Mackus]

A) We draft Posey to develop him as a catcher, where he has the most value. While Wieters is among the best prospects in baseball and our near certain future catcher, Posey could eventually be the backup/second catcher for us, playing 60 games behind the plate and perhaps DH'ing or filling in occassionally at SS/2B or even in the outfield. Posey would be used somewhat as other ML regulars have been used, whereas they are regular contributors, but don't play exclusively at one position. Wieters would catch 100'ish games or perhaps a bit more, but would DH or spot start at 1B most of the remaining games, allowing him to get 500+ AB's. This would allow both Wieters and Posey to extend their careers.

B) We draft Posey to develop him as a catcher and then when he is rocking the minors and a sure-thing-quite-ready-for-the-majors backstop, WE TRADE HIM. Catchers are in high demand, and a potential all-star and near certain quality catcher like Posey would garner serious value.

Both of these options seem like terrible wastes of a #4 pick to me.

[Greg Pappas]

Both of these options seem like terrible wastes of a #4 pick to me.

I wouldn't call either choice "terrible wastes" in any regard, but I totally agree in that I would take another player over Posey at #4. I was merely trying to answer bluehens OP in a way that gave an overview of the possibilities.

[markpolis]

Both of these options seem like terrible wastes of a #4 pick to me.

Enough to say drafting Posey would be "a draft pick you did not want"? :rofl:

Just referencing a hotly debated earlier thread regarding Posey.