Trade Kim and replace him with Mancini

[Beef Supreme]

Whoops. you did PAs. I thought you did ABs because of my faulty memory.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Mancini averaged 14.6 HRs per 500 ABs across all levels. His past two season he has hit 20+ across two levels in the minors -- a rate of 17.3 HR/500. And that includes Norfolk last year -- a ballpark that seems to suppress power and overall offensive production.

Kirby Puckett averaged 6.5 HR/500 in the minors. He went on to hit over 200 HRs in his career for a 14.3 HR/500 rate. That's more than double his minor league rate. Sometimes the power increases as players mature.

Not to belabor the "comparison," but Puckett walked at a Jones/Mancini rate in the majors just as he did in the minors. I don't expect Mancini's BB rate to improve but I think the HR rate will improve from his minors stats.

If Mancini can hit .270, he easily can hit 25 homers if he plays regularly.   He clearly can hit the ball a long way.    It's just a matter of how frequently he makes contact.   

[Beef Supreme]

Puckett MLB HR/500AB = 13.2, still double his minors rate.

 

The other ratios listed are correct for HR/500PAs, not HR/500ABs.

[Beef Supreme]

Again, i mistyped:

Puckett MLB HR/500PA = 13.2, still double his minors rate.

[SilverRocket]

Trey did work with Brady to change his stance spring training 2015, and credits that for his power increase. He's at 17.3 HR/500PA since then in the minors. Add in the MLB numbers and it's 19.7.

[LA2]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How about some Kim love.  Dropping down the bunt against the shift the other day.  Talk about the bat control.  He also got on base and Gentry pinch ran for him, which led to us getting our only run on saturday.  

After all the inept attempts at burning we've seen the last few seasons, that was a pure pleasure to watch.

The headline game-winning single vs. the Yankees was pure Kim--or Markakis--and a good example of why the lineup needs a hitter like him: <http://m.mlb.com/video/v1263504183/nyybal-kim-gives-os-the-lead-with-an-rbi-knock/?game_pk=490172>

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Mancini averaged 14.6 HRs per 500 ABs across all levels. His past two season he has hit 20+ across two levels in the minors -- a rate of 17.3 HR/500. And that includes Norfolk last year -- a ballpark that seems to suppress power and overall offensive production.

Kirby Puckett averaged 6.5 HR/500 in the minors. He went on to hit over 200 HRs in his career for a 14.3 HR/500 rate. That's more than double his minor league rate. Sometimes the power increases as players mature.

Not to belabor the "comparison," but Puckett walked at a Jones/Mancini rate in the majors just as he did in the minors. I don't expect Mancini's BB rate to improve but I think the HR rate will improve from his minors stats.

Sometimes it happens as a player matures and sometimes they use steroids.

[LA2]

4 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

How about some Kim love.  Dropping down the bunt against the shift the other day.  Talk about the bat control.  He also got on base and Gentry pinch ran for him, which led to us getting our only run on saturday.  

Here's some, published today: <https://www.pressboxonline.com/2017/04/17/orioles-hyun-soo-kim-what-a-difference-a-year-makes>

[Frobby]

36 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sometimes it happens as a player matures and sometimes they use steroids.

Both Manny and Schoop hit a homer about every 40 PA in the minors and once every 25 PA in the majors.   Trumbo hit one every 25 PA in the minors, once every 19 in the majors.   Joey Votto hit one every 31 PA in the minors, once every 20 PA in the majors.   I'll stop there, but it suffices to say there are plenty of guys whose HR rate was higher in the majors.    (And yes, I know some of these guys were younger than Mancini when they were in the minors.)

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Both Manny and Schoop hit a homer about every 40 PA in the minors and once every 25 PA in the majors.   Trumbo hit one every 25 PA in the minors, once every 19 in the majors.   Joey Votto hit one every 31 PA in the minors, once every 20 PA in the majors.   I'll stop there, but it suffices to say there are plenty of guys whose HR rate was higher in the majors.    (And yes, I know some of these guys were younger than Mancini when they were in the minors.)

I was just saying I am a tad bit suspicious of Kirby's spike in power.  Same with someone like Steve Finley.

Have to be careful using comps from certain periods.

[El Gordo]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Both Manny and Schoop hit a homer about every 40 PA in the minors and once every 25 PA in the majors.   Trumbo hit one every 25 PA in the minors, once every 19 in the majors.   Joey Votto hit one every 31 PA in the minors, once every 20 PA in the majors.   I'll stop there, but it suffices to say there are plenty of guys whose HR rate was higher in the majors.    (And yes, I know some of these guys were younger than Mancini when they were in the minors.)

Yes but they must have all used steroids.

[LA2]

53 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Both Manny and Schoop hit a homer about every 40 PA in the minors and once every 25 PA in the majors.   Trumbo hit one every 25 PA in the minors, once every 19 in the majors.   Joey Votto hit one every 31 PA in the minors, once every 20 PA in the majors.   I'll stop there, but it suffices to say there are plenty of guys whose HR rate was higher in the majors.    (And yes, I know some of these guys were younger than Mancini when they were in the minors.)

This is all great to know, but I think Kirby Puckett was a unique case:

1984 (rookie season): 0 (zero) homers / 583 PAs

1985: 4 homers / 744 PAs

1986: 31 homers / 783 PAs

1987: 28 homers / 668 PAs

1988: 24 homers / 691 PAs

A beloved, always hustling player, but the big leap after two full, successful seasons begs the question.

[El Gordo]

56 minutes ago, LA2 said:

This is all great to know, but I think Kirby Puckett was a unique case:

1984 (rookie season): 0 (zero) homers / 583 PAs

1985: 4 homers / 744 PAs

1986: 31 homers / 783 PAs

1987: 28 homers / 668 PAs

1988: 24 homers / 691 PAs

A beloved, always hustling player, but the big leap after two full, successful seasons begs the question.

This guy was definitely juiced

1959 16 HR / 499 PA

1960 39 HR / 578 PA

1961 61 HR / 698 PA

1962 33 HR / 687 PA

1963  23 HR / 351 PA

[LA2]

13 hours ago, El Gordo said:

This guy was definitely juiced

1959 16 HR / 499 PA

1960 39 HR / 578 PA

1961 61 HR / 698 PA

1962 33 HR / 687 PA

1963  23 HR / 351 PA

I don't think the two trend lines are really comparable. Puckett began with a full season during which he hit ZERO home runs.

Plus it helped the guy cited above to have someone batting behind him that season who hit 54 homers.

It was fun to look back at old box scores and find out that the Orioles sometimes batted Brooks lead-off. He was third in MVP votes that season.

[InsideCoroner]

8 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I was just saying I am a tad bit suspicious of Kirby's spike in power.  Same with someone like Steve Finley.

Have to be careful using comps from certain periods.

FWIW, I always found Puckett's overnight power highly suspicious as well. It depends whether or not you believe in the "juiced ball" story. I don't. Baseballs weren't juiced... baseball was.