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The Wildcard Race

NCRaven

By NCRaven
in Orioles Talk

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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19 minutes ago, SeaBird said:

True that they are only 3 games out but they are in 8th  place in the WC standings trailing the Yankees, Angels, Royals, Twins, Mariners, Rangers and Rays.  That's a lot of climbing.

I'm not worried about climbing.    I'm worried about winning.    It's a pretty low bar this year but we are managing to shimmy under it.

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bpilktree Hangout Grand Counsel

bpilktree

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29 minutes ago, O's are Legends said:

Royals lose 3-2 to the Rockies, ChiSox defeat the Twins, Rangers up 3-0 on Anaheim.

All we have to do is get hot but time is running down seems like somebody gets hot for week then stinks for week and go up and down.  We have been the most consistent team actually just hanging around 1-5 games under .500.

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Frobby Hangout Grand Counsel

Frobby

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BP has our odds at 1.7%, down from about 8% last week.   That's what going 4-5 with the majority of games at home, and a shrinking number of games, will do.   With about 6 weeks left in the season, we're past the point where one 5-2 week is going to put us back in the thick of things.     We're going to need some sustained good play.    I don't see us getting it done.   

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

BP has our odds at 1.7%, down from about 8% last week.   That's what going 4-5 with the majority of games at home, and a shrinking number of games, will do.   With about 6 weeks left in the season, we're past the point where one 5-2 week is going to put us back in the thick of things.     We're going to need some sustained good play.    I don't see us getting it done.   

I agree.  The good news is no one has put us away.  The bad news is that failing to gain ground while the finish line is rapidly approaching has begun to eliminate opportunities.  We may not be at a point where we have to sweep Boston, but the large lady of the opera is clearing her throat and going 1-2 or 0-3 in bean town will bring forth a sound that removes doubt.  Keep plugging and win series...and your chances survive.  Yeah its a long shot.  But there were times last year that our odds were pretty low too.  

I would add that what concerns me the most is that we have had some dramatic turns that could be seen as a spark, and yet it seems like forever since we won even two in a row.  That just isn't gonna do it.  Gotta have a streak of you are playing to be above .500.  Bleah.

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MDK02 Hangout Grand Counsel

MDK02

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3 minutes ago, foxfield said:

I agree.  The good news is no one has put us away.  The bad news is that failing to gain ground while the finish line is rapidly approaching has begun to eliminate opportunities.  We may not be at a point where we have to sweep Boston, but the large lady of the opera is clearing her throat and going 1-2 or 0-3 in bean town will bring forth a sound that removes doubt.  Keep plugging and win series...and your chances survive.  Yeah its a long shot.  But there were times last year that our odds were pretty low too.  

I would add that what concerns me the most is that we have had some dramatic turns that could be seen as a spark, and yet it seems like forever since we won even two in a row.  That just isn't gonna do it.  Gotta have a streak of you are playing to be above .500.  Bleah.

I think we need to take 1 from Boston this weekend and just tread water until we get back home for our 10 game stand. At that point, we have to take 6-7 of 10. If we do that, I think we'll find ourselves with a legit shot at making a run. I just hope we make it interesting and sneak in. 

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Ohfan67 Hangout Grand Counsel

Ohfan67

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On 8/17/2017 at 7:23 AM, Frobby said:

I'm not worried about climbing.    I'm worried about winning.    It's a pretty low bar this year but we are managing to shimmy under it.

Such a disappointing year. The Orioles are going to spend around 2 million per win this year (assuming they stay on same pace). 10th highest payroll in baseball and on pace to win 79 games in the year that the organization sort of "predicted" peak performance. Under a regular ownership-management structure, this performance would provoke serious thoughts of management changes. 

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Tx Oriole Hangout Grand Counsel

Tx Oriole

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40 minutes ago, MDK02 said:

I think we need to take 1 from Boston this weekend and just tread water until we get back home for our 10 game stand. At that point, we have to take 6-7 of 10. If we do that, I think we'll find ourselves with a legit shot at making a run. I just hope we make it interesting and sneak in. 

The team still has games against the Yankees. How many of those are at home? And if the O's lose 2 against the BoSox. Sorry but I don't see how the O's can make to the WC. Still below .500 ball. I guess crazier things have happened. 

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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19 minutes ago, MDK02 said:

I think we need to take 1 from Boston this weekend and just tread water until we get back home for our 10 game stand. At that point, we have to take 6-7 of 10. If we do that, I think we'll find ourselves with a legit shot at making a run. I just hope we make it interesting and sneak in. 

The key number is going to be 83-85 and at 62-65 the Orioles need to win 20-23 of their remaining 35 games.  If they win 1 and lose 2 in Boston they are 63-67 and then the Orioles would have to win 19-22 of the remaining 32.  

So...again, as the opportunities dwindle, the bar gets even higher and the chances lower.  I am as optimistic as anyone here.  But that noise you hear in the background is a clock and that clock is saying that the Orioles have pissed away a chance to get the ball rolling and that time is running out.  Hanging in this weekend is probably enough to leave a glimmer, but anything short of punching the Sox in the nose for a series win or sweep is likely the last flicker of hope.  

Tick tock tick tock...

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spiritof66 Hangout Grand Counsel

spiritof66

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On 8/17/2017 at 8:23 AM, Frobby said:

I'm not worried about climbing.    I'm worried about winning.    It's a pretty low bar this year but we are managing to shimmy under it.

Kind of like a limbo bar --  it gets gradually lower but our level of play keeps scrunching down to make sure we don't bump into it. Very frustrating -- as it must be for the other AL teams who could have put themselves in line for the WC by playing just a little better.

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foxfield Hangout Grand Counsel

foxfield

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Well we got another series opening win.  And for the first time since Aug 6-7 our first two game winning streak.  Time is running out, but winning last night was a punch in the face and a great way to open.  Tonight isn't a must win, but it's a really need this one kinda a game.  For those grasping at hope that this can somehow be a magical season this is the moment.  We don't HAVE to win tonight, but winning tonight means a sweep is possible and a series win is guaranteed.  

Just for grins.  Win tonight and the Orioles are 64-65 and would need 19 wins out of 33 remaining games to hit 83 and 21 of 33 to hit 85.  That's where they are. That is what it takes.  That is .576 or .636 the rest of the way.  Doable? Yes.

Sweep and the Orioles get back to .500 and head home for a stretch.  To hit 83 wins they would need to win 18 of 32 games or .562.  85 wins would take 20 of 32 or .625.  

Keep in mind that the Orioles with Buck have typically played .600 ball.  Again, I am not a fan of must win games, but winning here in this series sets the O's up pretty well.  Of course good streaks start small.  Last night was another great series opening win, but again also a 2nd win in a row.

Let's make it 3 and go from there!

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