2018 Orioles Wins Poll

[Dark Helmet]

I say they win 89 games and get the 2nd WC spot. 

[webbrick2010]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I think our outfield defense will be better than last year.    Rasmus is a big upgrade over Seth Smith defensively, and is in fact a plus outfielder.     Mancini will never be great, but with a year’s experience under his belt, figures to be a little better than last year, during which he improved quite a bit as the season progressed and he got used to playing there.    Granted, Jones is not likely to get better, and may get worse.    

Your faith in Rasmus, misplaced me thinks

The reports from ST have been very negative, I don't think Rasmus will be very good but perhaps he'll be league average.

His defensive WAR has been all over the place in this last 5 years

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

Your faith in Rasmus, misplaced me thinks

The reports from ST have been very negative, I don't think Rasmus will be very good but perhaps he'll be league average.

His defensive WAR has been all over the place in this last 5 years

Overall, he’s +4.7 dWAR in his career (+0.3 last year in limited action) compared to Smith’s -7.8 (-1.1 last year).    There’s no doubt in my mind that Rasmus is considerably better than Smith, who was much better than Trumbo but still below average.

[Number5]

1 hour ago, webbrick2010 said:

Your faith in Rasmus, misplaced me thinks

My posts have been very negative, I don't think Rasmus will be very good but perhaps he'll be league average.

His defensive WAR has been all over the place in this last 5 years

FTFY.

WAR is cumulative, and will naturally vary as the number of games played varies.  Rasmus played only 30 games in the outfield last year.  Rasmus is considered to be a decent outfielder by pretty much everyone.  Your negativity is, yet again, misplaced.

For someone that tries so hard to be overly negative, you're really not very good at it.

[yeoledugger]

So far, 83% of the OH’s believe that the 2018 O’s will play at a .500 or better win rate.  I love the optimism on this board.  I do not share that optimism because the starting pitching is not deep enough for potential injuries and performance issues.  Also, last September’s swoon still lives hard in my memory.  I selected 75-77 wins.

[webbrick2010]

26 minutes ago, Number5 said:

FTFY.

WAR is cumulative, and will naturally vary as the number of games played varies.  Rasmus played only 30 games in the outfield last year.  Rasmus is considered to be a decent outfielder by pretty much everyone.  Your negativity is, yet again, misplaced.

For someone that tries so hard to be overly negative, you're really not very good at it.

Well I was looking at UZR/150 where he has been anywhere from -15.3 to +30... but whatever you're obviously a smart guy with all the answers that thinks a guy available on a minor league contract is going to be an asset to a contending team like the O"s

[Redskins Rick]

46 minutes ago, yeoledugger said:

So far, 83% of the OH’s believe that the 2018 O’s will play at a .500 or better win rate.  I love the optimism on this board.  I do not share that optimism because the starting pitching is not deep enough for potential injuries and performance issues.  Also, last September’s swoon still lives hard in my memory.  I selected 75-77 wins.

Every single pitcher on every single team, is always one throw from short/long term DL trip.

I think there are lots of younger arms around now, and this is not last season's pitching crew.

[foxfield]

The Orioles have managed to do almost everything they said they would do in the offseason.  It certainly wasn't pretty and I would be much more confident if there were more starting pitching options.  That said, on paper, this pitching staff looks pretty competitive and it has upside.  Yes, for the Orioles to be a contender the starting pitching will have to be significantly better than it was in 17 and frankly will need to be as good as it appears on paper or better.  The lack of options will make the roster moves we have become accustomed to will not be available.  I think the depth that was stored in the minors could impact the non pitching staff as much as we have seen the pitchers moved in the past.  Whether that is a good thing or not may well depend on Buck.  If Trumbo or Davis do not rebound, this team cannot be successful with them taking 1000+ at bats.  But if either rebounds...

All in all, I am pretty optimistic that this team can compete, but as always, is going to be more vulnerable to big injuries.  I can see Manny carrying this team all the way if the pitching exceeds expectations.  Who knows, the prognosticators said the O's were not very good for years and they won anyway.  I definitely see this team capable of doing the same.  Would losing 90 surprise me?  Yes.  But it would be foolish to think it could not happen.  

In sum, I'll take the O's to make a run for the AL East and grab at least a WC.  From there....we'll see.  I'll take 90 wins.  And I'll have another glass of that Kool-Aid.  Orange please!

[OFFNY]

On 3/27/2018 at 10:01 AM, webbrick2010 said:

 

Your faith in Rasmus, misplaced me thinks

The reports from ST have been very negative, I don't think Rasmus will be very good but perhaps he'll be league average.

His defensive WAR has been all over the place in this last 5 years

 

 

 

On 3/27/2018 at 12:11 PM, Number5 said:

 

FTFY.

WAR is cumulative, and will naturally vary as the number of games played varies. Rasmus played only 30 games in the outfield last year. Rasmus is considered to be a decent outfielder by pretty much everyone. Your negativity is, yet again, misplaced.

For someone that tries so hard to be overly negative, you're really not very good at it.

 

 

 

On 3/27/2018 at 12:40 PM, webbrick2010 said:

 

Well I was looking at UZR/150 where he has been anywhere from -15.3 to +30 ........ but whatever, you're obviously a smart guy with all the answers that thinks a guy available on a minor league contract is going to be an asset to a contending team like the O"s

 

o

 

He's a smart guy.

He never claimed (ar acted as though) he has all the answers.

You're a malcontent that would go so far as to defend the pitching of Ubaldo Jimenez if it assisted your (constant) narrative of taking as many shots as you possibly can against the players and the organization known as the Baltimore Orioles.

 

o

[SeaBird]

78 wins; a few more (3) than last year.  Pitching is a big question mark in my mind.

[Frobby]

Bumping this in case anyone hasn’t voted.   Poll closes at 2 pm Thursday.    

[Ohfan67]

I voted for 85 (84-86). I think the best we can realistically hope for is a 10 game improvement. If that happens, then the Orioles will probably miss the wildcard. I unrealistically hope for more wins, but...

[Frobby]

The poll is closed!   The median point falls at 85 wins.    Past medians (and actual):

2012: 75 (93)

2015: 89 (81)

2016: 85 (89)

2017: 87 (75)

I’m sure there were polls in 2013-14, but I haven’t found them.   

 

 

 

 

 

[Number5]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The poll is closed!   The median point falls at 85 wins.    Past medians (and actual):

2012: 75 (93)

2015: 89 (81)

2016: 85 (89)

2017: 87 (75)

I’m sure there were polls in 2013-14, but I haven’t found them.   

 

 

 

 

 

So, since it thus proven that whenever the median point is 85 or below the Orioles outperform the poll, is is a scientific fact that the Orioles will win more than 85. 

[Frobby]

As long as we’re dredging up old threads today, I thought this one would be pretty hilarious to review.    Median answer was that we’d win 84-86 games, and only one voter said we’d win 71 or fewer.   (No, it wasn’t webbrick2010 — even he predicted 75-77 wins!)

A lot of people who are saying now that it was obvious the O’s would be bad this year, weren’t saying that in March.