2018 Orioles Wins Poll

[Frobby]

With apologies to OFFNY, who has a narrative thread going asking for predictions, I’m asking the same question but in the form of a poll.    So, what do you say?    The poll closes Thursday at 2 pm.

[theobird]

I am gonna go with 85 wins.

[Moose Milligan]

I went with 72-74 wins.  But I should have done 75-77 or 78-80.

Offense goes long spells with power outages, therefore this team doesn't score runs.  Davis and Trumbo repeat their performances.  

Bundy regresses (luckiest pitcher in the majors last year), Gausman is the same, Cashner is better than Miley but not by a wide margin, Cobb is easily our best starter.  Tillman is out of the rotation and released by mid May - the 5th rotation spot is constantly in flux.  

Bullpen blown out and tired by mid-July.

 

[LookitsPuck]

78-80.

Bullpen ERA by year for the O's:

2012: 3.00

2013: 3.52

2014: 3.10

2015: 3.21

2016: 3.40

2017: 3.93

The main outlier in that progression was 2013, but we've seen a bullpen that has been trending worse and worse in the totality.

I actually think they have a chance to be as bad as 2017 as far as the bullpen goes. 

Britton out, Brach ineffective w/ decreased velocity in spring training...and the O's are banking on a slate of Pedro Araujo (rookie), Mike Wright, Miguel Castro, Donnie Hart (who regressed quite a bit in 2017) as well as Richard Bleier. Basically they're going to desperately need O'Day, Brach and Givens to be elite otherwise the rotation is going to really put a spell on a set of middle relievers that just don't strike out many people coupled with a defense that just isn't good.

They'll need the bullpen to be nails to compete. That's what it comes down to me for a rotation that is most likely going to be average...or above average if Cashner and Cobb put up solid numbers. 

The offense hasn't changed. They're entirely built on being feast/famine. And they've done very little, if anything, to help team speed or OBP. Defense is still the O's fielding an aging OF coupled with a bunch of DH's littered throughout the field. 

We shall see. I could see them winning between 78-80...at most 84-85. And they have the potential to repeat last years W-L total.

[Babypowder]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

78-80.

Bullpen ERA by year for the O's:

2012: 3.00

2013: 3.52

2014: 3.10

2015: 3.21

2016: 3.40

2017: 3.93

The main outlier in that progression was 2013, but we've seen a bullpen that has been trending worse and worse in the totality.

I actually think they have a chance to be as bad as 2017 as far as the bullpen goes. 

Britton out, Brach ineffective w/ decreased velocity in spring training...and the O's are banking on a slate of Pedro Araujo (rookie), Mike Wright, Miguel Castro, Donnie Hart (who regressed quite a bit in 2017) as well as Richard Bleier. Basically they're going to desperately need O'Day, Brach and Givens to be elite otherwise the rotation is going to really put a spell on a set of middle relievers that just don't strike out many people coupled with a defense that just isn't good.

They'll need the bullpen to be nails to compete. That's what it comes down to me for a rotation that is most likely going to be average...or above average if Cashner and Cobb put up solid numbers. 

The offense hasn't changed. They're entirely built on being feast/famine. And they've done very little, if anything, to help team speed or OBP. Defense is still the O's fielding an aging OF coupled with a bunch of DH's littered throughout the field. 

We shall see. I could see them winning between 78-80...at most 84-85. And they have the potential to repeat last years W-L total.

I agree with most of what you have here, but I disagree on the defense. I think it is actually likely to be improved, which is why I went with 78-80. I had them around 75 wins before Cobb. Mancini, Jones, and Davis to me are likely to be the only defenders to be well below average. I think everyone else is average (Schoop , Joseph/Sisco) or above (Beckham, Machado, Rasmus). Rasmus is a major improvement for the outfield defense that was horrendous last year. 

[LC_O's_87]

I went with 84-86 but it wasn't hard to being even more bullish.

Just doing some comparison of 2017 to 2018 and it's not hard to build at least 12 more wins.

The keys for me on offense are how much more they can get out of the left side of the infield in 2018 as compared to 2017; how much more can they get out of RF; and how much closer to average Trumbo and Davis return this year and how much of drop off they suffer at Catcher.

Between 3b and SS last year, they were around 4.1 WAR according to Baseball Reference.  You've got to believe that, at a minimum, they double the number of wins from those 2 positions.

In RF, they had perhaps .8 -.9 WAR, in 2017.   Safe to bet that Rasmus alone will add a win, maybe 2.  Who knows with Santander as he's a big wild-card this season.

Trumbo and Davis combined for - .6 WAR last year.  Davis was 1.7 WAR in 2014 when he batted .196, so going conservative and not relying on Trumbo for anything more than not playing any RF (-1.6 DWAR in 2017), you can probably safely hope for 3 more wins from these two.

Now they got 3.7 WAR from Beef and Caleb last season.  I'd assume at least 1.5 less wins at the Catcher spot, unless Sisco magically improves his throwing/blocking in the course of a couple months.

Still this is realistically 8 more wins without even considering the pitching, which was the worst (SP-wise) in franchise history last year.  And you could argue I am way low on Machado who seems poised for a career year and could add another 2-3 wins himself.

 

 

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, LookitsPuck said:

 

78-80.

Bullpen ERA by year for the O's:

2012: 3.00

2013: 3.52

2014: 3.10

2015: 3.21

2016: 3.40

2017: 3.93

The main outlier in that progression was 2013, but we've seen a bullpen that has been trending worse and worse in the totality.

I actually think they have a chance to be as bad as 2017 as far as the bullpen goes. 

Britton out, Brach ineffective w/ decreased velocity in spring training...and the O's are banking on a slate of Pedro Araujo (rookie), Mike Wright, Miguel Castro, Donnie Hart (who regressed quite a bit in 2017) as well as Richard Bleier. Basically they're going to desperately need O'Day, Brach and Givens to be elite otherwise the rotation is going to really put a spell on a set of middle relievers that just don't strike out many people coupled with a defense that just isn't good.

They'll need the bullpen to be nails to compete. That's what it comes down to me for a rotation that is most likely going to be average...or above average if Cashner and Cobb put up solid numbers. 

The offense hasn't changed. They're entirely built on being feast/famine. And they've done very little, if anything, to help team speed or OBP. Defense is still the O's fielding an aging OF coupled with a bunch of DH's littered throughout the field. 

We shall see. I could see them winning between 78-80...at most 84-85. And they have the potential to repeat last years W-L total.

 

o

 

The Orioles' bullpen pitched more innings than every team in the Major Leagues last season, except for the Reds and the Blue Jays.

The 2017 starting rotation was historically bad, leading to that significant overworking of the bullpen.

I believe that that is much less likely to that happen this season with the additions of Cashner and Cobb, although not having Britton for at least 2 months will add a significant amount of pressure to the bullpen at-large.

 

o

[VeveJones007]

Bottom 3rd of the AL is absolute trash. Have to add in a multiplier for that.

[maybenxtyr]

I picked 90 wins because I didn't want to take 90 losses. I still believe there will not be a whole lot of in between for this team. The starting pitching will as always be the deciding factor in their success. 

[scOtt]

90. So 90-92 in the poll.

[TouchemAll]

Well with Cobb I am in for 87-89 and a WC spot. I gotta stay positive

[TouchemAll]

3 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

I went with 72-74 wins.  But I should have done 75-77 or 78-80.

Offense goes long spells with power outages, therefore this team doesn't score runs.  Davis and Trumbo repeat their performances.  

Bundy regresses (luckiest pitcher in the majors last year), Gausman is the same, Cashner is better than Miley but not by a wide margin, Cobb is easily our best starter.  Tillman is out of the rotation and released by mid May - the 5th rotation spot is constantly in flux.  

Bullpen blown out and tired by mid-July.

I agree with your assessment of Tillman although I give him maybe till the break, only because he's a Buck guy.

Quote

 

 

[Finisher]

Betting sites still have us at 72 wins. Seemed lowish to begin with but now they're assuming no win change going from Mike Wright to Cobb??

[MarylandAaron]

I went 87-89. I think this rotation will be the best O's rotation since 2014.

[DJHJR86]

87-89

IMO, this season is reminiscent of 2 years ago.  I see us in contention for a wild card.  Although I do think the rotation going into this season is better than what we had in 2016.