2018 Orioles Wins Poll

[ChuckS]

These projections are overly optimistic for the most part and aren't taking into account how good the Yankees and Red Sox are likely to be.  I think we would have to play considerably better than last season just to match that win total considering how fortunate we were in the first half of the season.  

I think we will have a better season than last year in the runs scored and runs allowed department, but that's only going to be good enough for 75-78 wins. 

It's all going to come down to the SP.  

[carolinaoriole]

92 wins

[DJHJR86]

23 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

Bundy regresses (luckiest pitcher in the majors last year), Gausman is the same, Cashner is better than Miley but not by a wide margin, Cobb is easily our best starter.  Tillman is out of the rotation and released by mid May - the 5th rotation spot is constantly in flux.  

Bullpen blown out and tired by mid-July.

We have 2 pitchers with career ERA's lower than 4, which is already an upgrade over the rotation from 2016 (Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, yuck).  Even if Bundy were to regress and Tillman gone with the 5th rotation spot a carousel, I still say this is a better rotation than 2016 (where we won a wild card).  Cashner/Cobb > Wright/Wilson/Gallardo/Jimenez.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, DJHJR86 said:

We have 2 pitchers with career ERA's lower than 4, which is already an upgrade over the rotation from 2016 (Mike Wright, Tyler Wilson, yuck).  Even if Bundy were to regress and Tillman gone with the 5th rotation spot a carousel, I still say this is a better rotation than 2016 (where we won a wild card).  Cashner/Cobb > Wright/Wilson/Gallardo/Jimenez.

I get that, but the Yanks/Sox are better than they were in 2016.

[Redskins Rick]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get that, but the Yanks/Sox are better than they were in 2016.

But at the end of the day, paper is only so good, and you go out on the field and see what happens.

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

But at the end of the day, paper is only so good, and you go out on the field and see what happens.

Yep.

Based on that, who do you want to bet the farm on this year?  

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

But at the end of the day, paper is only so good, and you go out on the field and see what happens.

Wow man, that's deep.

 

 

[DJHJR86]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get that, but the Yanks/Sox are better than they were in 2016.

Maybe for the Yanks, but I think the Sox are roughly the equivalent that they were in 2016.  

[esmd]

I went with 87-89.  I feel a lot better about this rotation with Cobb and Cashner in it, and I think we're going to hit plenty.  the 'pen will be solid as always, especially when Britton returns.  Maybe I'm overly optimistic, but hey, we're just over 48 hours from Opening Day.  :-)

[Redskins Rick]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Wow man, that's deep.

 

 

smart arse.

[Redskins Rick]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Yep.

Based on that, who do you want to bet the farm on this year?  

I see this team with potential to make a run at it.

Yes, it will be a dog fight, but typically the AL East is.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

I see this team with potential to make a run at it.

Yes, it will be a dog fight, but typically the AL East is.

After living through 1989 and 2012 I won't discount the possibility that the O's will be in the hunt.

But I expect them to finish under 500.

[Redskins Rick]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

After living through 1989 and 2012 I won't discount the possibility that the O's will be in the hunt.

But I expect them to finish under 500.

I understand, there are question marks.

Usually with the exception of last season, when it went to hell in a hand basket. Buck typically has his team in the mix of things.

No reason, to think this will be any different.

[webbrick2010]

I voted 75-77, and I think that is really optimistic:

This remains a very flawed team, but they should stack up some wins against the teams that are in full re-build mode (like the O's should be).

The starting rotation can be good if Gausman & Bundy are good, I don't think we will get anything from Tillman, and I think Cashner will be almost as bad as Miley/Ubaldo.

The bullpen will struggle, we don't have an established closer, O'day will spend his 30+ days on the DL, be limited to ~45 IP and continue to be prone to gopher balsl against LH power hitters. Givens is really the only plus guy and the rest of the bullpen is a bunch of Rule V and AAAA guys that will be inconsistent at best.

The offense will  score slightly below average runs assuming that Davis & Trumbo get 500+ PA's each. The only thing that will push it above average would be the emergence of 2/3 of Santander, Hays or Sisco.

The biggest weakness will be putrid defense. Manny is the only plus defender and we're not even sure how he will grade out at short. Beckham will be bad at 3B and his hitting will not make up for it, I expect he will be in some kind of platoon/rotation by June 1st. Schoop and Davis are average, Joseph is unproven as a starter,  but the real problem is that all 3 OF positions are below average, with Jones being perhaps the worst CF'er in MLB

With a staff that doesn't miss bats the OF defense will be too much to overcome and their will be a lot of crooked numbers put up in long innings where balls are landing all over the OF

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, webbrick2010 said:

 

The biggest weakness will be putrid defense...the real problem is that all 3 OF positions are below average, with Jones being perhaps the worst CF'er in MLB

With a staff that doesn't miss bats the OF defense will be too much to overcome and their will be a lot of crooked numbers put up in long innings where balls are landing all over the OF

I think our outfield defense will be better than last year.    Rasmus is a big upgrade over Seth Smith defensively, and is in fact a plus outfielder.     Mancini will never be great, but with a year’s experience under his belt, figures to be a little better than last year, during which he improved quite a bit as the season progressed and he got used to playing there.    Granted, Jones is not likely to get better, and may get worse.