Gausman's velocity

[Camden_yardbird]

15 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

I'm concerned about his velocity. He was good the second half, why start throwing your fastball differently? Unless his velocity is down and he's going for movement to try and cope with the loss of stuff. I don't know, we'll have to wait and see.

Looking at fangraphs and it's not showing more movement on the H or V.  It's certainly concerning.  His average velocity has capped out at 93.1 on the FB.  He was never lower than 94 before this and he is not one of those pitchers who needs to ramp up, he frequently has put up 97 mph avg FBs right out of the gate before.

[esmd]

I'm definitely concerned, UNLESS he's doing it on purpose for some reason (pacing himself for a long season, for better endurance, trying to get better movement, 2 vs 4 seamer, etc.).  I've heard some people say it's because it's early in the season and he's not fully loosened up and the velocity will come back when it warms up, but I'm not buying that.  You don't go from 95-97 down to 92-94 just because it's April and it's cold.

[esmd]

9 hours ago, weams said:

But where is the 98  MPH changed speed as well?

This.  If he was mixing in 92-93mph 2 seamers with the 96-97 mph 4 seamer, great.  But I've not seen anything over 93 or 94 from him.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

22 minutes ago, esmd said:

I'm definitely concerned, UNLESS he's doing it on purpose for some reason (pacing himself for a long season, for better endurance, trying to get better movement, 2 vs 4 seamer, etc.).  I've heard some people say it's because it's early in the season and he's not fully loosened up and the velocity will come back when it warms up, but I'm not buying that.  You don't go from 95-97 down to 92-94 just because it's April and it's cold.

Yeah I mean if he had shown this pattern in the past, maybe. But he hasn't. He's usually even up a bit to start the season. 

[Frobby]

20 minutes ago, esmd said:

This.  If he was mixing in 92-93mph 2 seamers with the 96-97 mph 4 seamer, great.  But I've not seen anything over 93 or 94 from him.

Per pitch f/x, he topped out at 95.6 yesterday.   http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2018&month=4&day=11&pitchSel=592332.xml&game=gid_2018_04_11_tormlb_balmlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2018_04_11_tormlb_balmlb_1/

[Luke-OH]

1 hour ago, Camden_yardbird said:

Looking at fangraphs and it's not showing more movement on the H or V.  It's certainly concerning.  His average velocity has capped out at 93.1 on the FB.  He was never lower than 94 before this and he is not one of those pitchers who needs to ramp up, he frequently has put up 97 mph avg FBs right out of the gate before.

I wasn’t aware Fangraphs had movement data. Where are you seeing this?

I agree he is usually upper 90s out of the gate and I’m concerned whether or not it’s a different pitch or grip.

[esmd]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per pitch f/x, he topped out at 95.6 yesterday.   http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2018&month=4&day=11&pitchSel=592332.xml&game=gid_2018_04_11_tormlb_balmlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2018_04_11_tormlb_balmlb_1/

Right and last year he was topping out at 97 or 98.  So as said, what happened to that 2-3 mph?

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Per pitch f/x, he topped out at 95.6 yesterday.   http://www.brooksbaseball.net/pfxVB/pfx.php?s_type=3&sp_type=1&batterX=0&year=2018&month=4&day=11&pitchSel=592332.xml&game=gid_2018_04_11_tormlb_balmlb_1/&prevGame=gid_2018_04_11_tormlb_balmlb_1/

It wasn't that long ago he was hitting triple digits.

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It wasn't that long ago he was hitting triple digits.

I mean last year he didn't have any sort of dip and was probably hitting triple digits here and there. His whole career he hasn't shown any sort of dip. That's what's so weird. 

All that said, 92-95 certainly will play just fine if he can control the split. Probably more important than his velocity a few ticks higher. I'd love both though. 

[LC_O's_87]

Buck's comment in the post-game was perhaps telling as well:

"Getting better. When he had to reach back toward the end he went and got it. "

Of course,  only last year he could carry hi-90s into the late inning of his starts.   And Buck's commenting on a max of 95.   There's no way Diaz is turning and burning on an insider heater from Gausman last year.

However, I do agree with some of the other posters that it sure looks like he's throwing a 2 seamer.  Esp. in the later innings last night.

[maybenxtyr]

The Yankee announcers were saying that someone affiliated with Baltimore told them it was on purpose. He was trying to cut down on walks and long pitch counts.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

The Yankee announcers were saying that someone affiliated with Baltimore told them it was on purpose. He was trying to cut down on walks and long pitch counts.

I would still expect to see it showcased a few times a game in appropriate counts.

It isn't as if it is a bad pitch.

[maybenxtyr]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would still expect to see it showcased a few times a game in appropriate counts.

It isn't as if it is a bad pitch.

I was just repeating what John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman were saying. The were told that by someone in the organization.

[Can_of_corn]

11 minutes ago, maybenxtyr said:

I was just repeating what John Sterling and Suzyn Waldman were saying. The were told that by someone in the organization.

I don't doubt they said it. Was just saying I don't think what they were told is entirely truthful.

[Sessh]

For someone like Gausman, it does worry me because he's basically a fastball/changeup pitcher with no legitimate third pitch. Losing that much velocity is a big deal especially considering Gausman has flirted with shoulder problems the last two seasons. I hope he's not pitching through something.

I also noticed Brach's velocity is down significantly as well. He's usually consistently up around 95-97 and every time I've seen him during the season, he's in the 91-94mph range. Either it's on purpose or guys are already seeing major velocity declines. Givens' velocity seems to be fine, though.