Gausman's velocity

[Luke-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’ll worry if Gausman is still throwing 92-94 when the weather warms up, and if he’s getting poor results.    

Yeah, that's fair, I'm concerned, not freaking out or anything.

[MDtransplant757]

His velocity was fine in Florida during ST. I'll chalk it up to the weather

[Drifter]

Is it also possible he is finally figuring out that if he is going to get MLB hitters out more consistently, he's gonna have to change speeds more often as well?

[ChuckS]

1 hour ago, 25 Nuggets said:

It's a common thing for pitchers to lose velocity from a very early age.  Averaging numbers out, it's a straight trend downwards for the fastball.

Unless you are Charlie Morton.  Journey man starter throwing high 90's heat at age 34....as a starter.  Someone will have to explain that one to me.  

[joelala]

47 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

Unless you are Charlie Morton.  Journey man starter throwing high 90's heat at age 34....as a starter.  Someone will have to explain that one to me.  

Me too, please.  I thought the radar gun was broken when I watched him pitch against us.

[weams]

6 hours ago, Drifter said:

Is it also possible he is finally figuring out that if he is going to get MLB hitters out more consistently, he's gonna have to change speeds more often as well?

But where is the 98  MPH changed speed as well?

[Can_of_corn]

7 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

His velocity was fine in Florida during ST. I'll chalk it up to the weather

I don't recall seeing 95-98 from him in ST.

[interloper]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’ll worry if Gausman is still throwing 92-94 when the weather warms up, and if he’s getting poor results.    

Why would the weather matter? It doesn't matter for other pitchers.

[interloper]

9 hours ago, MDtransplant757 said:

His velocity was fine in Florida during ST. I'll chalk it up to the weather

It wasn't, though. Like at all.

[spiritof66]

The lower velocity may reflect an adjustment designed to enable him to throw more pitches/innings per start and stay off the DL. Let's see how the next few starts unfold.

At least for now, I'm devoting all my worrying about the starting pitching to the #5 spot. 

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, interloper said:

Why would the weather matter? It doesn't matter for other pitchers.

I think it matters for lots of pitchers.   Not for all.   And I can’t say about Gausman; it’s just something I’ll be watching.   In any event, I’m probably about the least concerned about velocity as an overall factor in a pitcher’s success of any poster here.    Just throw to good spots and get outs is all I care about.   

[interloper]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I think it matters for lots of pitchers.   Not for all.   And I can’t say about Gausman; it’s just something I’ll be watching.   In any event, I’m probably about the least concerned about velocity as an overall factor in a pitcher’s success of any poster here.    Just throw to good spots and get outs is all I care about.   

While I agree velocity isn't everything, I tend to worry about pitchers who SHOULD have good velocity and now do not. Because that means they need to compensate somehow, or it means they are injured or compromised in some way. Guys like Bleier who don't naturally have velocity and are effective, obviously we're not worried about that.

Bundy, for example, is a guy who has figured out how to work around his loss of velocity. And that's great, BUT there are two things that differentiate him from Gausman: 1) We know WHY he lost velocity (TJS), and 2) He has 3 above-average breaking pitches. 

We can't say either of those two things about Gausman, so I think the loss of velocity is incredibly concerning until/unless proven otherwise.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

While I agree velocity isn't everything, I tend to worry about pitchers who SHOULD have good velocity and now do not. Because that means they need to compensate somehow, or it means they are injured or compromised in some way. Guys like Bleier who don't naturally have velocity and are effective, obviously we're not worried about that.

Bundy, for example, is a guy who has figured out how to work around his loss of velocity. And that's great, BUT there are two things that differentiate him from Gausman: 1) We know WHY he lost velocity (TJS), and 2) He has 3 above-average breaking pitches. 

We can't say either of those two things about Gausman, so I think the loss of velocity is incredibly concerning until/unless proven otherwise.

I don’t really disagree with what you’re saying.     However, over the years it seems to me that Gausman’s fairly high velocity hasn’t been the determining factor in whether he succeeded or failed. Here are Gausman’s five worst games from last year in terms of runs allowed.

1.   8 runs: 95.6 ave., 98.9 top

2.   8 runs: 96.1 ave., 98.6 top

3.   7 runs: 95.9 ave., 98.2 top

4.   6 runs: 96.6 ave., 99.2 top

5.   6 runs: 94.0 ave., 97.2 top

For me, I care more about results in the game than I do about velocity.    I’d rather have a guy hitting his spots and getting movement at 92-94 than throwing straight pitches down the middle at 95-98.    And we’ve all see Gausman do the latter, enough to know it doesn’t work.

 

[interloper]

16 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t really disagree with what you’re saying.     However, over the years it seems to me that Gausman’s fairly high velocity hasn’t been the determining factor in whether he succeeded or failed. Here are Gausman’s five worst games from last year in terms of runs allowed.

1.   8 runs: 95.6 ave., 98.9 top

2.   8 runs: 96.1 ave., 98.6 top

3.   7 runs: 95.9 ave., 98.2 top

4.   6 runs: 96.6 ave., 99.2 top

5.   6 runs: 94.0 ave., 97.2 top

For me, I care more about results in the game than I do about velocity.    I’d rather have a guy hitting his spots and getting movement at 92-94 than throwing straight pitches down the middle at 95-98.    And we’ve all see Gausman do the latter, enough to know it doesn’t work.

 

For sure, and that's good news for KG I guess. I'm mostly worried that we don't have a clear answer about why he's lacking velocity. I mean he threw some straight up 89 mph fastballs last night according to Gameday. That's weird! He as one point has thrown fastballs a full 10 mph faster! Not that he should be doing that, and certainly my memory aligns with your data here in terms of bad starts where he was lighting up the radar gun.

So, if he's throwing a 2seamer, or using a different grip on the 4seamer, we'd like to know for sure. What's weird to me is he hasn't reach back and gotten 97 when it might be useful to do so for one or two pitches per game. When he reaches back, he seems to get 94. 

I guess we just wait and see how it all shakes out. Ultimately, it might make him a better pitcher, but at the end of the day, it's a ton of lost velocity for unclear reasons.

[weams]

I agree with Frobby, it's not all about velocity. But until the next Greg Maddux comes along... It's important. 

Maybe Zac Lowther will be able to pinpoint and repeat.