Grade the Gausman Deal

drjohnnyfeva · August 24, 2018

16 minutes ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

It doesn't bother you that OUR team, one that has been absent (re. clueless) from this market, suddenly, now, with a mere change of "who's in charge" knows enough to invest in trading a controlled asset - AND a salary dump - to acquire money to invest where they have NO presence?

Come on. This ownership is clueless about how to run a MLB team. They change course like the wind. Old Pete has always had final say, after all. Now the son(s)... I think trading assets is the way to go, but this one, in particular, could have been done in the winter like Cobb and Cashner will be. Ultimately, it is a salary dump.

What kind of international money and a prospect or two would have been gained w/o O'Day in the deal? Sometimes you gotta eat bad investments................

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

My estimation is that taking on O'Day lowered the total package value by 9M

It would not have been my preferred strategy.

That's fair enough and I accept that view. I don't think ownership knows strategy. I think they blow like the wind with (their) feelings about this or that. It's not the way to run a club.

Ohfan67 · August 24, 2018

2 hours ago, weams said:

Adam Jones had been a full time MLB outfielder for two seasons by the age that Mullins made the majors. He had 31 home runs and ~.750 OPS by that time too.

I think everyone sees the difference. If Mullins has a career that’s close to Jones’, then he overperformed expectations quite a bit. Jones was a much more elite prospect than Mullins and I’m not even sure the big colleges even looked at him. He went to a very small school.

maybenxtyr · August 24, 2018

26 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

His K/BB is disasterous.

He's certainly a raw player.

weams · August 24, 2018

10 hours ago, tntoriole said:

That is just a joke...Milt actually remained an excellent pitcher for years on Reds, Cubs, etc.

weams · August 24, 2018

10 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

It doesn't bother you that OUR team, one that has been absent (re. clueless) from this market, suddenly, now, with a mere change of "who's in charge" knows enough to invest in trading a controlled asset - AND a salary dump - to acquire money to invest where they have NO presence?

Come on. This ownership is clueless about how to run a MLB team. They change course like the wind. Old Pete has always had final say, after all. Now the son(s)... I think trading assets is the way to go, but this one, in particular, could have been done in the winter like Cobb and Cashner will be. Ultimately, it is a salary dump.

What kind of international money and a prospect or two would have been gained w/o O'Day in the deal? Sometimes you gotta eat bad investments................

Many people say the Orioles can't afford to eat investments. Many people say the Baltimore part of the Baltimore/Washington market is not sustainable.

Ohfan67 · August 24, 2018

2 minutes ago, weams said:

Many people say the Orioles can't afford to eat investments. Many people say the Baltimore part of the Baltimore/Washington market is not sustainable.

Does “many people” refer to your multiple personalities?

wildcard · August 24, 2018

Gausman talks about he adjustments the Braves have him make. J

This may have been posted in these 35 pages but I did not see it.

https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/video/new-brave-gausman-on-mlb-central/c-2380127383?tid=7417714

Ohfan67 · August 24, 2018

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Gausman talks about he adjustments the Braves have him make. Just needed a better pitching coach.

This may have been posted in these 35 pages but I did not see it.

https://www.mlb.com/cardinals/video/new-brave-gausman-on-mlb-central/c-2380127383?tid=7417714

Kevin's good years with the O's Wallace was the pitching coach. He did not do as well when McDowell was coaching.

Did the Braves coach up that .238 BAPIP? I'm not trying to defend McDowell, but there's no evidence that Gausman is really pitching much better with the Braves. His K% is lower than it was earlier in the season, his walk % is the same, etc. He has allowed fewer home runs with Atlanta and balls are being hit at defenders. Part of the reduction in BABIP could be better defense, but most of it is probably luck. He is a little bad luck away and about one home run a week away from being the same ole Gausman.

wildcard · August 24, 2018

24 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Did the Braves coach up that .238 BAPIP? I'm not trying to defend McDowell, but there's no evidence that Gausman is really pitching much better with the Braves. His K% is lower than it was earlier in the season, his walk % is the same, etc. He has allowed fewer home runs with Atlanta and balls are being hit at defenders. Part of the reduction in BABIP could be better defense, but most of it is probably luck. He is a little bad luck away and about one home run a week away from being the same ole Gausman.

It is early to know but the Braves telling him to throw up in the zone instead on low and away. And changing where he is on the rubber could be making a difference. They shown him on tape how he looked when he was pitching well. He says it made a difference. Sounds simple but apparently the O's did not show him that video on when he was doing well.

Frobby · August 24, 2018

31 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Did the Braves coach up that .238 BAPIP? I'm not trying to defend McDowell, but there's no evidence that Gausman is really pitching much better with the Braves. His K% is lower than it was earlier in the season, his walk % is the same, etc. He has allowed fewer home runs with Atlanta and balls are being hit at defenders. Part of the reduction in BABIP could be better defense, but most of it is probably luck. He is a little bad luck away and about one home run a week away from being the same ole Gausman.

I really hate the use of BABIP in very small sample sizes. Let’s say Gausman has a game where he induced 20 soft fly balls and weak grounders. Well, then his BABIP is going to be low, and it’s not necessarily related to luck or chance. In another game, he might allow 10 screaming liners that happen to go right to fielders. In that case, he’s gotten lucky. Over a long season that stuff tends to wash out, but in 3-4 games it may not. And unless you’ve watched his four starts, you wouldn’t really know why his BABIP was low.

Ohfan67 · August 24, 2018

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I really hate the use of BABIP in very small sample sizes. Let’s say Gausman has a game where he induced 20 soft fly balls and weak grounders. Well, then his BABIP is going to be low, and it’s not necessarily related to luck or chance. In another game, he might allow 10 screaming liners that happen to go right to fielders. In that case, he’s gotten lucky. Over a long season that stuff tends to wash out, but in 3-4 games it may not. And unless you’ve watched his four starts, you wouldn’t really know why his BABIP was low.

There are new analyses showing incredibly weak relationships between exit velocity and other associated variables and BABIP. Weak contact and screaming outs turn out to be pretty randomly distributed. A start with weak contacts may look better, but it ultimately actually says nothing more about a pitchers ability than the one with screaming outs. What do you think about ERA in small sample sizes? That and comments to reporters about a few good starts with a new organization are the justification for a coaching-induced change in Gausman.

P.s. BABIP is actually a great stat to keep evaluations more accurate with small sample sizes. Study after study shows that pitchers have little to no control on what happens after the bat leaves the ball, especially if it is not a home run or a ground ball. If a pitcherhas unusually good results and doesn’t strike out more hitters, doesn’t walk fewer hitters, but has an unusually low BABIP then that tells you a lot about the future. I think you have the small sample size thing totally backwards.

Hallas · August 24, 2018

Just now, Ohfan67 said:

There are new analyses showing incredibly weak relationships between exit velocity and other associated variables and BABIP. Weak contact and screaming outs turn out to be pretty randomly distributed. A start with weak contacts may look better, but it ultimately actually says nothing more about a pitchers ability than the one with screaming outs. What do you think about ERA in small sample sizes? That and comments to reporters about a few good starts with a new organization are the justification for a coaching-induced change in Gausman.

There is a definite relationship between BABIP and launch angle, though. pop-ups suppress BABIP by a lot, and groundballs suppress them by a little bit (though they mostly suppress SLG.)

Ohfan67 · August 24, 2018

3 minutes ago, Hallas said:

There is a definite relationship between BABIP and launch angle, though. pop-ups suppress BABIP by a lot, and groundballs suppress them by a little bit (though they mostly suppress SLG.)

So you think the Braves coaches were able to coach Gausman to induce a .238 BABIP? If so, then they should be fired for not coaching their entire pitching staff to do likewise.

Luke-OH · August 24, 2018

1 minute ago, Hallas said:

There is a definite relationship between BABIP and launch angle, though. pop-ups suppress BABIP by a lot, and groundballs suppress them by a little bit (though they mostly suppress SLG.)

Always a good excuse to post this from xstats.org. Check out the site, it's worth it.

Dribble Balls

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	107,594	13,385	12,528	834	21	2	.128	.137	.124	.112
2015	35,630	4,465	4,179	279	5	2	.130	.138	.125	.114
2016	33,555	4,088	3,852	228	8	0	.126	.133	.122	.110
2017	34,150	4,321	4,023	292	6	0	.130	.139	.127	.114
2018	4,259	511	474	35	2	0	.123	.133	.120	.111

Dribble balls consist of weakly hit ground balls, and bloops that rarely leave the infield. They typically have low exit velocity and/or extremely low launch angles. These batted balls are reasonably prevalent, consisting of about 25% of all batted balls, but have limited value given their extremely low extra base hit rate and low batting average. This stat may be represented as a fraction of total Balls In Play (DB%).

Ground Balls

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	81,285	29,943	27,262	2,510	169	2	.368	.404	.368	.337
2015	27,171	10,080	9,188	829	61	2	.371	.406	.371	.340
2016	26,323	9,627	8,776	805	46	0	.366	.400	.366	.333
2017	24,428	9,048	8,226	765	57	0	.370	.406	.370	.338
2018	3,363	1,188	1,072	111	5	0	.353	.389	.353	.329

Ground Balls fall somewhere between Dribble Balls and Low Drives, both in terms of exit velocity and launch angle and in terms of value. These are a common class of batted ball, composing about 20% of all batted balls, and they are largely composed of sharply hit balls on the ground, but some of them may be softer hit bloops that just barely clear the infielder's reach. They rarely result in extra base hits, except when hit down the line and into the corner. This stat may be represented as a fraction of total Balls In Play (GB%).

Low Drive

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	68,420	51,962	41,589	9,526	837	10	.763	.928	.760	.727
2015	22,161	16,765	13,349	3,121	291	4	.760	.928	.757	.729
2016	21,852	16,562	13,350	2,923	288	1	.761	.922	.758	.723
2017	21,554	16,441	13,119	3,086	231	5	.766	.932	.763	.727
2018	2,853	2,194	1,771	396	27	0	.772	.930	.769	.745

Low Drives have very high success rates and overall value, but are largely composed of singles as opposed to extra base hits. Low Drives can have low exit velocity and higher launch angle, or a higher exit velocity and a lower launch angle. Just about 17% of batted balls fall into this class, but this number may not be stable or predictive for any given batter. In essence, this is a class of batted ball that embodies the "BABIP is luck" aspect of DIPS theory. Batters with high or low LD% will likely regress towards the mean. This stat may be represented as a fraction of total Balls In Play (LD%).

High Drive

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	39995	27256	1131	9140	1135	15850	.691	2.186	.472	1.154
2015	11901	7958	309	2758	395	4496	.677	2.127	.468	1.147
2016	13016	8934	382	3052	372	5128	.697	2.193	.483	1.156
2017	13078	9162	391	2902	323	5546	.710	2.274	.480	1.178
2018	2000	1202	49	428	45	680	.612	1.915	.396	1.037

High Drives are the highest quality batted balls. They only represent about 10% of batted balls, but 90% home runs and 34% of doubles. High Drives should be seen as a measure of power, and give good insight on the raw skill of a batter. The number of High Drives is largely driven by exit velocity, but it is constrained by the launch angles most likely to produce high value batted balls. Increases of batted balls in this class represent either an increase in these ideal launch angles, an increase in exit velocity, or both. This stat may be represented as a fraction of total Balls In Play (HD%).

Fly Ball

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	41,535	9,724	3,997	3,574	474	1,679	.242	.480	.202	.291
2015	13,346	2,944	1,168	1,133	166	477	.229	.454	.192	.277
2016	13,160	3,132	1,340	1,120	145	527	.246	.481	.206	.293
2017	13,276	3,263	1,298	1,184	147	634	.254	.517	.208	.307
2018	1,753	385	191	137	16	41	.227	.400	.201	.260

Fly Balls represent batted balls that are close to having high value, but don't quite hit the mark, either due to exit velocity being a tough too low or launch angle being a touch too high. When pulled down the lines, these batted balls can supply solid value, but when hit towards the middle third of the field they will often turn into easy outs. About 10% of batted balls fall into this class. This stat may be represented as a fraction of total Balls In Play (FB%).

Pop Up

Year	BIP	H	1B	2B	3B	HR	AVG	SLG	BABIP	wOBA
All	70,771	1,515	595	749	100	71	.022	.039	.020	.025
2015	22,119	457	188	222	27	20	.021	.037	.020	.024
2016	22,680	459	184	225	24	26	.021	.037	.019	.023
2017	22,913	539	199	273	43	24	.024	.043	.023	.027
2018	3,059	60	24	29	6	1	.020	.035	.019	.023

Pop Ups represent the weakest class of batted balls. These are balls that either lack the exit velocity to enter the High Drive section, and thus fall into the "dead zone", or they have launch angles that exceed the acceptable range for batted balls. About 17% of batted balls fall into this class. This stat may be represented as a fraction of total Balls In Play (PU%).

Going Underground · August 24, 2018

8 hours ago, weams said:

Did anyone post the article on the third basemen we got from the Gausman trade? It was in the Sun and was positive from the Braves and Orioles side.

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Grade the Gausman Deal