An Early Look at the 2019 Draft

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, weams said:

It's a B pick this year. Correct?

Yep.

[Jammer7]

4 hours ago, Greg Pappas said:

He may be the safest pick among HS players. Very good player.

I’ve seen him many times over the years. Not a premium athlete, but he will hit. Average corner OF defensively, but will likely be below average runner when fully grown. 

[Greg Pappas]

6 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

I’ve seen him many times over the years. Not a premium athlete, but he will hit. Average corner OF defensively, but will likely be below average runner when fully grown. 

Cool. Taking into consideration what you feel he profiles at as a major-leaguer, is there a MLB player that he reminds you of?

[Jammer7]

6 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Cool. Taking into consideration what you feel he profiles at as a major-leaguer, is there a MLB player that he reminds you of?

Not a huge fan of comps, so don’t hold me to this. And he could work out with Brady to maximize his ability and be like a Christian Yelich type. But Shawn Green comes to mind for me. The swing is nice, and a really good kid. 

[Frobby]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That is what you or I would do.

They would trade for International slot money and then offer less for the top remaining players.

The O's have twice used competitive balance picks as a way to dump bad contracts.

I've not seen evidence that stockpiling talent is a priority over lowering costs.

I don't think they've earned the benefit of the doubt.

Different situation IMO.   O’s were bumping up against their payroll limit and wanted some flexibility to take on salary at the deadline in competitive seasons.    That’s not where they are now, IMO.   But we’ll see.  

[Can_of_corn]

39 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Different situation IMO.   O’s were bumping up against their payroll limit and wanted some flexibility to take on salary at the deadline in competitive seasons.    That’s not where they are now, IMO.   But we’ll see.  

My take on how they handled the Mesa and Gaston deals leads me to believe little has changed.

[foxfield]

15 hours ago, weams said:

The Orioles Draft First in Each of the Rounds. They don't get any comp picks this year. Except the competitive balance, which they will probably trade to offload payroll. 

This would be colossally stupid, in the midst of a rebuild, but would help take the pressure off of the whole "Hey were gonna do this the right way" kinda thing.  

[Ruzious]

On 11/11/2018 at 6:43 AM, Luke-OH said:

Some people have a 30 or 40 on his future hit tool. I've read reports of him swinging through 91 straight middle middle at times. 

Now all the other tools are plus, but the hit tool is often the crux of a player's profile. The swing is fine and the bat speed is plus, so it's apparently just a concerning lack of consistent bat to ball. It might just be a focus thing, or getting too big trying to crush everything. It definitely adds risk to the profile though.

I like Witt Jr and I haven't seen him live so I'm just going off of scouting reports. He's not a tier above Rutschman or some of the top prep bats, so it's far from a foregone conclusion even if you are high on Witt Jr.

For example, CJ Abrams is faster, has a similar arm, also plays SS, is more physically projectable, and has a better feel to hit currently. Witt Jr has more present power and more polished defense. 

Plus, we don't know what the HS players will look like in the spring, players can change their profile quickly with added strength, size, or general physicality at that age.

I am no scout, but from everything I've read by people who seem to be knowledgable about them, I'm not sure there's a reason - other than the Witt hype and chicks digging the long ball - that Witt is rated higher than Abrams.   

[eddie83]

 

[bpilktree67]

I see very little chance that the Orioles try and even can trade the competitive balance pick to offset payroll.  Their is three guys making any money on this team next year.  Davis no one is taking his contract even if you could attach the first overall pick.  Cobb is a bounce back type guy the Orioles will hope that he will do that then can move him for an actual return.  Trumbo has the knee issue no one is going to take a chance on trading for him until he proves he is healthy and by then the draft will be over.  That leaves the only option as Cashner if he struggles no one is going to want to take him on and if he pitches well you won’t Orioles trade him til close to the deadline or atleast after the June draft.  I still believe the number one pick is Witt jr and it is basically his to loose.  He plays in these all star tournaments and it seems almost every time he performs aa the top guy or atleast one of them.  The other guys have been up and down showing flashes of being up there but also signs of inconsistencies.  Witt seems like a very solid safe pick with a rather high low floor and also a high ceiling which is rare.  Imo.  It usually is he has super potential if he reaches it but could never make it and be a bust or the guy is a safe pick but may never reach superstar or great type player. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, bpilktree67 said:

I see very little chance that the Orioles try and even can trade the competitive balance pick to offset payroll.  Their is three guys making any money on this team next year.  Davis no one is taking his contract even if you could attach the first overall pick.  Cobb is a bounce back type guy the Orioles will hope that he will do that then can move him for an actual return.  Trumbo has the knee issue no one is going to take a chance on trading for him until he proves he is healthy and by then the draft will be over.  That leaves the only option as Cashner if he struggles no one is going to want to take him on and if he pitches well you won’t Orioles trade him til close to the deadline or atleast after the June draft.  I still believe the number one pick is Witt jr and it is basically his to loose.  He plays in these all star tournaments and it seems almost every time he performs aa the top guy or atleast one of them.  The other guys have been up and down showing flashes of being up there but also signs of inconsistencies.  Witt seems like a very solid safe pick with a rather high low floor and also a high ceiling which is rare.  Imo.  It usually is he has super potential if he reaches it but could never make it and be a bust or the guy is a safe pick but may never reach superstar or great type player. 

Elias et al. won't draft from a public ranking list.  I'm interested in seeing who they juggle for. 

[Frobby]

Here’s an updated top 50 from MLB.com.    Rutschman tops the list, with Witt second.  https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/2019-draft-top-50-prospects-list-revealed/c-301460626

[Greg Pappas]

 

[Greg Pappas]

Ive updated the OP with this... MLB Pipeline's Top 50 prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft

Rutschman and Witt, Jr are 1 & 2.

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, Greg Pappas said:

Ive updated the OP with this... MLB Pipeline's Top 50 prospects for the 2019 MLB Draft

Rutschman and Witt, Jr are 1 & 2.

I think Rutschman is in a tier of his own at the moment.

But there is plenty of time for others to improve their profiles.