Luke’s 2018 Rule 5 Draft Preference List

[NCRaven]

Awesome write ups, Luke.  Thanks!

Top 3 look interesting and then a drop off, from my reading of your reviews.

[Richmond Bird 9]

Good list, I think #16 drew Jackson was one of the names mentioned in the Manny trade. 

[luismatos4prez]

Great list. Interesting take on VanMeter. I definitely would like Akeem Bostick with the first overall pick. 

I was surprised not to see Tyler Eppler on your list. Is he not actually eligible or did you just not like him?

[weams]

https://2080baseball.com/2018/12/mlb-rule-5-draft-preview-pt-3-relief-pitchers/

[Camden_yardbird]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

List is up!

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/12/10/lukes-2018-rule-5-draft-preference-list/

Please let me know if there are guys I missed, I probably considered them but if you point them out I’ll let you know why I left them off and maybe add them if they are worthy and I missed checking them out.

Hope you all enjoy.

So my first question after reading just the intro is do you take organizational depth into account, both at the position and overall minor league quality?  It seems to me that organizations with deeper minor leagues and more prospects at a given position may be more prone to dropping a better player into the rule 5 pool.

[Camden_yardbird]

Second.  Surprised to not see Schrock.  Didn't he lead the minor leagues in hits a few years ago?

[higgybaby]

I love the fact that you have VanMeter at the top of your list. 

As ive mentioned previously he was a teammate of my two oldest boys on their state championship high school team.  Excellent kid and teammate. 

I doubt the O’s will take him but man that would be awesome  

Proud bragging dad moment, but my oldest son led that team in most of the batting categories his senior year with Josh. (Avg,HR,OBP)

 

[wildcard]

I like Bostick.   He is in the Astros system so Elias knows him well.    Probably a reliever in 2019 but could be a starter in the future.  Only 23.  Did not even make the Astros top 30.  Here is a scouting report that Weams  posted for 20/80 baseball.  It supports what Luke wrote.

Akeem Bostick, RHP, Houston Astros
Ht/Wt: 6’6” / 215 lbs.          B/T: R/R           Highest Level: AAA    Age (as of April 1, 2019): 23y, 10m

Bostick has moved up the minor league ladder slowly, coming off his best season as a pro in 2018. The athletic righty pitched to a 3.48 ERA over 93 innings at Double-A, making two appearances with Triple-A Fresno at the end of the year. Bostick runs his fastball into the middle 90’s from a fluid arm stroke that generates riding life up in the zone. A mid-80’s slider is the primary off-speed offering, backed up by a developing changeup and show-me curve. There’s long-term starting potential given his durable frame and four-pitch mix, though he’s still raw enough that a contending team likely can’t afford to give him starting innings next year

[Rene88]

Why would a rebuilding franchise with nothing but time draft a player projected as a utility guy? That makes zero sense to me. Draft someone with big upside and if it fails...oh well. Don’t waste time with lower skilled players/projected utility guys.

[murph]

36 minutes ago, Rene88 said:

Why would a rebuilding franchise with nothing but time draft a player projected as a utility guy? That makes zero sense to me. Draft someone with big upside and if it fails...oh well. Don’t waste time with lower skilled players/projected utility guys.

Luke explains why in his beginning overview. 

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Luke, how would you compare JVM to Flaherty? The profile seems very similar.

The C on your list is very intriguing. I wonder why he isn't more highly regarded. .300/.800 hitting C who can throw?

Based on your description, Elvis sounds really good! "Blown away" and "MLB quality stuff" are pretty strong words.

Blown away is my take from a guy who just started pitching two months earlier throwing curveballs for strikes like a MLB pitcher and dotting his fastball on the outer half against LHB and RHP at 95. 

Now to pump the brakes, I doubt he can control the running game at all at this point and he loses his delivery from time to time. But he’s a plus athlete and so inexperienced as a pitcher that I’d bet on rapid improvement.

 

VanMeter definitely has a better hit tool than Flaherty, the power might be a touch less raw, but VanMeter should get to more game power because of the superior amount and quality of contact. There defensive reputations are similar but Flaherty made himself into a solid defender.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Luke-OH said:

Blown away is my take from a guy who just started pitching two months earlier throwing curveballs for strikes like a MLB pitcher and dotting his fastball on the outer half against LHB and RHP at 95. 

Now to pump the brakes, I doubt he can control the running game at all at this point and he loses his delivery from time to time. But he’s a plus athlete and so inexperienced as a pitcher that I’d bet on rapid improvement.

Buck is gone so his TTTP shouldn't be a deal breaker.  Pair him with Sisco and make a drinking game out of it.

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Camden_yardbird said:

So my first question after reading just the intro is do you take organizational depth into account, both at the position and overall minor league quality?  It seems to me that organizations with deeper minor leagues and more prospects at a given position may be more prone to dropping a better player into the rule 5 pool.

No, not really, I judge the players on their own merits, the players I’m high on are generally ones who have improved their profile recently and maybe their team thinks they can slip through unprotected. 

To your second question, Schrock is a utility ceiling. No power, not even gap, can’t handle SS, he was considered but not ranked.

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Richmond Bird 9 said:

Good list, I think #16 drew Jackson was one of the names mentioned in the Manny trade. 

He’s a guy I definitely considered higher, the hit tool is definitely the limiting factor with him. Him and Michael Gettys are guys if they had a 50 hit, they’d be top 100 guys. But alas, poor hit tools can sink a profile.

[Luke-OH]

3 hours ago, luismatos4prez said:

Great list. Interesting take on VanMeter. I definitely would like Akeem Bostick with the first overall pick. 

I was surprised not to see Tyler Eppler on your list. Is he not actually eligible or did you just not like him?

Don’t like him, there isn’t an average offspeed pitch and his success was largely dependent on his extremely pitcher friendly home park.