Astroball

[Camden_yardbird]

Spin rate.  Whatever their success with draft picks, they have figured some pitching thing out that allowed 5hem to take promising but mediocre talented pitchers, and or pitchers on the downswing (Morton, Verlander, McCullers) and really maximize performance.  That's the kind of stuff I am looking for that has been lacking in Baltimore.

Winning everything takes a lot of luck and they clearly had some, but they also did a lot of things right.

[Slappy]

On 11/21/2018 at 2:15 PM, atomic said:

Read Astroball last night.  I don't know that it makes me think that they were actually all that good at drafting. I mean biggest successes were drafting #1 or #2.  And they failed there as well.   Also seems they made mistakes on a lot of players they already had:

Keuchel:  Tried to trade him multiple times but no other team wanted him.   Worked on adding slider on his own.  Made himself better.  At first was against all the shifts but then he started moving players around himself depending on what he was throwing.  

JD Martinez: Worked with someone in the off-season on his swing. Totally re-did his swing.  Then did really well in Winter Ball told the coaches and management about this and they didn't give him a chance in Spring Training only giving him 18 at bats and then told him they would be going forward with guys like Hoes instead and released him.  Their system said a guy his age would never improve.

Altuve:  Seems like Altuve they did help. But they weren't that high on him.

Biggest thing was Beltran. How he would watch videos of opposing pitchers over and over again until he could detect what they were throwing.  Then would give the information to his teammates.  Makes me wonder if someone like Bundy was showing his pitches.

If the Britton deal went through they most likely wouldn't have traded for Verlander.  So we did them a favor there.  

Big thing the book taught me is that players who are great spend a lot of time on their own working constantly to improve themselves.  Watching Video and looking for weaknesses in their opponents.   Perhaps intelligence and competitiveness and ability to gel with teammates is underrated.  Correa had over 1200 SAT.  

On Brady Aiken the team only offered 3.1 million as that was the minimum they could offer and still get another pick next year if the guy didn't sign.  Also the owner was the one who put the bid in for 5 million.  

Big Data really doesn't seem to help that much when drafting high school players.  

I think maybe missing is the impact that management team had on players that were already in the system, or that they were able to get from other teams.  Player development, not necessarily player acquisition is where these guys excelled in Houston.

Look at Altuve.  He was nothing special in 2012/2013.  About a .700 guy.  But from '14-18 he has averaged an .873 OPS.

Or take George Springer. Dramatically improved his K rate after striking out over 30% of the time in 14/15.

Dallas Keuchel was not a good pitcher in '12/13 (5.20 ERA).  But from '14-18 he has been one of the AL's best starters, with a Cy Young and a cumulative 3.28 ERA.

Verlander had regressed pretty substantially (although he was still good) from '12 to '17 in Detroit, but his year and a half with Houston (at age 35) have been statistically the best of his career.

Gerrit Cole went from rapid regression in Pittsburgh to an All-Star in Houston, raising his K/9 by almost 3 in one year! 

It's ok to point out that players worked hard to get better - that's definitely true.  But that opportunity exists everywhere.  Maybe in Houston the players had better information and support to use for that self-improvement?  That seems like the difference.

BTW, some of these things give me hope that the turnaround here won't take as long as everyone thinks.  Maybe Chris Davis can be turned around with some information and support?  Same with Mancini and Bundy.  Maybe the minor league guys we got last year that tanked moving into the Orioles system can get back on track.  

[atomic]

6 minutes ago, Slappy said:

I think maybe missing is the impact that management team had on players that were already in the system, or that they were able to get from other teams.  Player development, not necessarily player acquisition is where these guys excelled in Houston.

 Look at Altuve.  He was nothing special in 2012/2013.  About a .700 guy.  But from '14-18 he has averaged an .873 OPS.

Or take George Springer. Dramatically improved his K rate after striking out over 30% of the time in 14/15.

Dallas Keuchel was not a good pitcher in '12/13 (5.20 ERA).  But from '14-18 he has been one of the AL's best starters, with a Cy Young and a cumulative 3.28 ERA.

 Verlander had regressed pretty substantially (although he was still good) from '12 to '17 in Detroit, but his year and a half with Houston (at age 35) have been statistically the best of his career.

 Gerrit Cole went from rapid regression in Pittsburgh to an All-Star in Houston, raising his K/9 by almost 3 in one year! 

It's ok to point out that players worked hard to get better - that's definitely true.  But that opportunity exists everywhere.  Maybe in Houston the players had better information and support to use for that self-improvement?  That seems like the difference.

BTW, some of these things give me hope that the turnaround here won't take as long as everyone thinks.  Maybe Chris Davis can be turned around with some information and support?  Same with Mancini and Bundy.  Maybe the minor league guys we got last year that tanked moving into the Orioles system can get back on track.  

The Verlander issue was had groin injury issues that he was dealing with.  He got things worked out before he was traded.  According to Astroball the Astro's saw that he was back to his old self in his starts prior to the trade and that is why they traded for him. 

[foxfield]

Just now, atomic said:

The Verlander issue was had groin injury issues that he was dealing with.  He got things worked out before he was traded.  According to Astroball the Astro's saw that he was back to his old self in his starts prior to the trade and that is why they traded for him. 

Well...this plus they missed on Zach.

[atomic]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

Well...this plus they missed on Zach.

Yeah like the Orioles they got fan backlash for not doing things.  For not making deals at the deadline and also for not signing the #1 overall pick because of a physical issue.  

[Chromehill]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

The Verlander issue was had groin injury issues that he was dealing with.  He got things worked out before he was traded.  According to Astroball the Astro's saw that he was back to his old self in his starts prior to the trade and that is why they traded for him. 

I believe Verlander also changed the grip on his slider while he was in Detroit since he noticed that it was being hit hard (he did not know to what extent).  He made the adjustment on his own, figured he had to try something different.

Houston knew about his slider being hit hard and the subsequent improvement and actually asked him if he changed his grip.  I believe Houston had him throw the slider more. 

With Altuve and Springer, Houston gave them a plan to work on that was developed from their analytics.  To be honest when it comes to hitting, Ted Williams had it right, get a good pitch to hit.  Common sense, lay off the stuff on the outside.  Kuchel also benefitted from pitching to the outside and the use of shifts.  Houston was able to convince them all of the improvement plan because they had the analytic data to back it up.

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 11/27/2018 at 9:53 AM, Redskins Rick said:

After 14 years if pure hell, I was pretty happy too.

I just wish, it could have been even happier times.

 

I was ecstatic, considering the Orioles had been terrible for the vast majority of my life.

[Frobby]

I got Astroball for Christmas and finished it this morning.   It’s a great read, even without the obvious connections to the new Orioles front office, and I’d highly recommend it.   Mike Elias actually is only a minor player in the book; Sig Mejdal features much more prominently.    And honestly, it’s really Jeff Luhnow who comes off as the true visionary.    

One of the interesting takeaways is how the Astros actually analyzed the input of their scouts, ascertaining their tendencies and biases and factoring those in when quantifying the scouts’ input and adding it to whatever numerical analyses were included.   I’m guessing it takes a while to build a system like that when joining a new team with a new set of scouts.   

Another takeaway was the Astros’ investment in technology, installing sophisticated cameras and tracking equipment at every minor league park in their system. I read somewhere (not in the book) that this system alone cost about 10 times what some teams spend on their whole player development budget.    So when you’re complaining about the O’s skimping on payroll the next couple of years, remember that there’s a lot of investment going on behind the scenes.   

Overall, I came away with the feeling that the Astros are far from the only team who are light years ahead of where the Orioles have been in terms of using analytics and technology to aid in player selection and development, and it’s going to take a while to catch up.     I think our processes will be good but that overall resources, judgment and yes, luck, still play a big role in outcomes.   It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out for Elias, Mejdal and the Orioles.   

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I got Astroball for Christmas and finished it this morning.   It’s a great read, even without the obvious connections to the new Orioles front office, and I’d highly recommend it.   Mike Elias actually is only a minor player in the book; Sig Mejdal features much more prominently.    And honestly, it’s really Jeff Luhnow who comes off as the true visionary.    

One of the interesting takeaways is how the Astros actually analyzed the input of their scouts, ascertaining their tendencies and biases and factoring those in when quantifying the scouts’ input and adding it to whatever numerical analyses were included.   I’m guessing it takes a while to build a system like that when joining a new team with a new set of scouts.   

Another takeaway was the Astros’ investment in technology, installing sophisticated cameras and tracking equipment at every minor league park in their system. I read somewhere (not in the book) that this system alone cost about 10 times what some teams spend on their whole player development budget.    So when you’re complaining about the O’s skimping on payroll the next couple of years, remember that there’s a lot of investment going on behind the scenes.   

Overall, I came away with the feeling that the Astros are far from the only team who are light years ahead of where the Orioles have been in terms of using analytics and technology to aid in player selection and development, and it’s going to take a while to catch up.     I think our processes will be good but that overall resources, judgment and yes, luck, still play a big role in outcomes.   It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out for Elias, Mejdal and the Orioles.   

We hope there is a lot of investing going on behind the scenes.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

We hope there is a lot of investing going on behind the scenes.

I cannot believe Elias and Mejdal would have come here without that being in the plan.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I cannot believe Elias and Mejdal would have come here without that being in the plan.   

Plans have a tendency to change.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Plans have a tendency to change.

Such a pessimist.    I’m not sure the plan will work, but I’m pretty confident that the plan will be followed for a considerable period of time.    

[TonySoprano]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Such a pessimist.    I’m not sure the plan will work, but I’m pretty confident that the plan will be followed for a considerable period of time.    

He likes to play the curmudgeon.

Ringo plays the drums.
Paul plays the bass.
Sometimes I play the fool.

[Can_of_corn]

30 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Such a pessimist.    I’m not sure the plan will work, but I’m pretty confident that the plan will be followed for a considerable period of time.    

 

14 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

He likes to play the curmudgeon.

Ringo plays the drums.
Paul plays the bass.
Sometimes I play the fool.

I think the sons are going to be more dependent on the team as a source of revenue than the father and that it is reasonable to question their commitment to spending money in ways they have never spent before.

[scOtt]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I got Astroball for Christmas and finished it this morning.   It’s a great read, even without the obvious connections to the new Orioles front office, and I’d highly recommend it.   Mike Elias actually is only a minor player in the book; Sig Mejdal features much more prominently.    And honestly, it’s really Jeff Luhnow who comes off as the true visionary.    

One of the interesting takeaways is how the Astros actually analyzed the input of their scouts, ascertaining their tendencies and biases and factoring those in when quantifying the scouts’ input and adding it to whatever numerical analyses were included.   I’m guessing it takes a while to build a system like that when joining a new team with a new set of scouts.   

Another takeaway was the Astros’ investment in technology, installing sophisticated cameras and tracking equipment at every minor league park in their system. I read somewhere (not in the book) that this system alone cost about 10 times what some teams spend on their whole player development budget.    So when you’re complaining about the O’s skimping on payroll the next couple of years, remember that there’s a lot of investment going on behind the scenes.   

Overall, I came away with the feeling that the Astros are far from the only team who are light years ahead of where the Orioles have been in terms of using analytics and technology to aid in player selection and development, and it’s going to take a while to catch up.     I think our processes will be good but that overall resources, judgment and yes, luck, still play a big role in outcomes.   It’s going to be interesting to see how it plays out for Elias, Mejdal and the Orioles.   

All of that was mostly Sig's input and programming system wasn't it?