How good can the 2019 Orioles be?

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Dipper9 said:

I have more of a chance flirting with Alyssa Milano than the Orioles flirting with a .500 record.

If you want an excuse to drink today, I think Alyssa Milano is older (turns 47 this year) than any of my grandparents were when was when I was born.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Dipper9 said:

I have more of a chance flirting with Alyssa Milano than the Orioles flirting with a .500 record.

 

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

It's not that hard. She's on twitter.

Now, whether she's receptive is another issue altogether.

How many years has this Alyssa Milano shtick been going on?    She’s 47 years old now, married with two kids.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

How many years has this Alyssa Milano shtick been going on?    She’s 47 years old now, married with two kids.    

Anyone else still a bit disappointed she didn't marry Carl Pavano?

Alyssa Milano-Pavano would have been an all-time great name.

[LookinUp]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

How many years has this Alyssa Milano shtick been going on?    She’s 47 years old now, married with two kids.    

If she's 47, it's been going on roughly 34 years. 

[wildbillhiccup]

13 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

How many years has this Alyssa Milano shtick been going on?    She’s 47 years old now, married with two kids.    

I was always more of a Nicole Eggert man myself....but she hasn't aged well. 

[weams]

You pick first in every round. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

Is it bad that I LOL'd just at the mere title of this thread? Not necessarily because it's a bad thread idea. That's just more my genuine reaction to our roster and the question of how "good" this team can be. Especially in the AL East. 

[Dipper9]

37 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

If you want an excuse to drink today, I think Alyssa Milano is older (turns 47 this year) than any of my grandparents were when was when I was born.

I turn 45 this year.  I've been infatuated with her since we were both kids.  Why would that stop now?

Although her political beliefs are very far from mine.  

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

23 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I guess one way to frame this is what's the 90% case for the whole roster?  I think the 50% case is 60 wins, give or take.  But, what happens if 80 or 90% of everything goes right?

Bundy could go 220 innings with a 3.25.
Trumbo could hit .275 with 30 homers and approach 2 wins above replacement.
Mancini could have a 3-win season.
Davis could somehow climb back to his 2017 glories and be replacement level.
Jonathan Villar could have something approaching his 4-win 2016.
Givens could throw 65 innings of a 2.00.
Nunez continues to hit better in the majors than he did in the minors.
Cashner somehow has an ERA under 5.00. 
Cobb throws 180 innings to a 3.25.

I think they could win 75, maybe 80.  That would be like 1989 all over again.  Just so long as all the overachivers aren't traded between June and July.

I mean, this post surprisingly made me see a glimmer of a bright side if almost everything goes right. It did feel like last year to start the year everyone but Manny wet the bed and played below expectation. 

And like you said, if somehow Bundy and Cobb do that well, we trade those suckers and get some solid prospects back. And that would be as exciting as finishing with 79 wins. 

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

22 hours ago, LookinUp said:

The scariest part to me is that we might be really bad for a couple of years, causing ownership to adopt a new strategy. I really hope they let Elias et al see this through. 

What concerns me more than even this is the fact that it's no longer a novel strategy to "tank". We have tanking competition now. I don't feel like Houston did. 

[foxfield]

20 hours ago, Ohfan67 said:

Someone won 425 million dollars playing the lottery!! https://www.cnn.com/2019/01/02/us/mega-millions-new-year-lottery-winner/index.html

Heck, people win multimillion dollar lotteries pretty much every week of the year. I recommend that you sell your house and the rest of your belongings, withdraw your life savings and retirement fund, and purchase lottery tickets with the cash. 

 

The Orioles are actually the poster child for what a franchise looks like when they refuse to rebuild and instead hang on to tradeable assets and spend money on mediocre to decent free agents to push for 80 wins. And those were very, very ugly years. Most posters lauded the O's hiring of Elias, but some now want to stick their heads in the sand about where the Orioles are and what they need to do to rebuild. The 2018 Orioles were historically bad...while spending 148 million dollars, having Machado for half a year, signing free agent pitchers in the offseason, etc. Their farm system is ranked in the bottom third of baseball by many if not most and that's after trading away Machado et al. for prospects. They are far behind in terms of analytics and technological infrastructure. They need to stack the deck in their favor as much as possible. Winning 70 games to make a few fans feel slightly better (and I mean slightly...fans will still rant and rave about a 70 win season IMO) is not worth the reduction in draft pick placement. Remember that if you pick high in the first round you also get to pick high in the second round. 

 

19 hours ago, MemorialStadKid said:

And that's what scares me about the near future. 

The lack of strong prospects and a relatively barren farm system AFTER the trades. I thought we'd get high-level prospects for Machado but things don't look great right now. 

I see 55-65 wins with the latter number being a pipe dream. At this moment, 3 of the 5 AL East teams (NYY, BOS, Tampa) will destroy us throughout the season. Just the AL East alone will relegate the team to the basement. 

It's not going to get better for a while. We just need to prepare for what's coming. 

MSK 

 

 

Two pretty good posts.  The job in front of us, or rather Mike Elias and the Orioles is tremendous.  We really are not rebuilding.  We are constructing.  Small difference, but the magnitude is there.  Last year, with skepticism, I looked through my orange colored glasses and hoped that with the addition of Cashner and Cobb, that the Orioles would have a chance for 87 wins and maybe squeak into the playoffs.  The Orioles, as everyone knows missed that mark by 40 games.  40.  With 160 Million or so, they went for it and tried to extend a window.  It failed, but I do appreciate the attempt even if it was, in hindsight a poor one.

This year, I hope for 63 wins and a #1 draft pick and I brace myself for painful construction of the future World Series Champion Orioles.  As I fully expect to see lots of bad baseball, I will try and focus on little things.  Signs of development, the inevitable dispatch of Chris Davis, hopefully the avoidance of games like the 30-3, or the Mothers Day Massacre.  But the challenge.  The real challenge will be to summon fortitude, to endure 2019 without judging from day to day.  I don't want the O's to lose, nor to make decisions to lose.  But I will try to brace myself for decisions that are designed to improve future Oriole teams.

It's kinda funny and ironic, but if ever there was a year for a slogan.  Buck up!!!

I'm excited to see this thing get built and I know it will be harder than ever.  We are behind everyone, and everyone seems to be coming to the same analytical table, but every journey begins with one step.  I'm in. 

[Tx Oriole]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Anyone else still a bit disappointed she didn't marry Carl Pavano?

Alyssa Milano-Pavano would have been an all-time great name.

I don't care about Hollywood actresses or anything Hollywood. The Stars I liked are long gone. No more Bogart and no more Wayne. 

[Tx Oriole]

18 hours ago, Dipper9 said:

I turn 45 this year.  I've been infatuated with her since we were both kids.  Why would that stop now?

Although her political beliefs are very far from mine.  

Mine too. But she has a right to believe as she wants. 

[DrungoHazewood]

19 hours ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

What concerns me more than even this is the fact that it's no longer a novel strategy to "tank". We have tanking competition now. I don't feel like Houston did. 

Yes, this.  It's entirely possible that your goal is the #1 pick but you end up with 96 losses and that only gets you the #5 or #6.  In 2008 the Orioles could have been putting all the money into international complexes and uncapped international signings and draft picks and overslots, while finishing dead last.  But nooooooo, they had to sign 33-year-old vets to win 73 games and get the #5 pick.  And now everything is capped and a third of the league is trying to lose 100.

[jjnono]

I think this team will be hard pressed NOT to lose 100 games or more.  I'm not expecting any sort of meaningful improvement in the Win/Loss columns.  That said, I would like to see improvement over the course of the season, especially from players that figure to be part of the next 3-5 years of the team's future.  I'd be willing to split the season into thirds and see how we progress... or don't.  Ultimately I would just like to see us establish some positive talent progression, regardless of where we wind up in the standings.  If at the end of the next 2-3 seasons we can be increasingly excited for the next season, I'm good....