Chris Davis 2019 and beyond

[interloper]

Does anyone have like, a comparison gif of Good Years Davis vs 2018 Davis? I haven't had much luck finding something like that, but it'd be interesting to take a look.

[Can_of_corn]

19 minutes ago, Yardball85 said:

I just don't understand what in the world has happened.  He was never great, but he's turned into an automatic out at a still relatively young age.

Players with his profile are known for sudden and complete collapses.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sexsori01.shtml

30- 144 OPS+

31- 117 OPS+

32- 82 OPS+

33- 89 OPS+

34- Out of baseball

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/powelbo01.shtml

33- 154 OPS+

34- 90 OPS+

35- 83 OPS+

36- out of baseball

 

So yea, it looks like he's a year or two ahead of schedule.

[Yardball85]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Players with his profile are known for sudden and complete collapses.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sexsori01.shtml

30- 144 OPS+

31- 117 OPS+

32- 82 OPS+

33- 89 OPS+

34- Out of baseball

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/powelbo01.shtml

33- 154 OPS+

34- 90 OPS+

35- 83 OPS+

36- out of baseball

 

So yea, it looks like he's a year or two ahead of schedule.

Good point.  Richie Sexson, nice throwback.  

[interloper]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Players with his profile are known for sudden and complete collapses.

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/s/sexsori01.shtml

30- 144 OPS+

31- 117 OPS+

32- 82 OPS+

33- 89 OPS+

34- Out of baseball

https://www.baseball-reference.com/players/p/powelbo01.shtml

33- 154 OPS+

34- 90 OPS+

35- 83 OPS+

36- out of baseball

 

So yea, it looks like he's a year or two ahead of schedule.

But specifically to Davis, what is occurring mechanically or physically to induce a collapse? That's the question that no one has been able to answer yet.

He can pull balls into the shift (bat speed seems there at times), he can still hit mistake breaking balls for home runs sometimes (ability to make hard contact seems there at times), and he can still work some walks (ability to see pitches seems there at times). 

Why aren't these abilities translating into results? To me, it's largely mechanical/mental. I think he still has the athleticism to produce, but other things are getting in the way. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

But specifically to Davis, what is occurring mechanically or physically to induce a collapse? That's the question that no one has been able to answer yet.

He can pull balls into the shift (bat speed seems there at times), he can still hit mistake breaking balls for home runs sometimes (ability to make hard contact seems there at times), and he can still work some walks (ability to see pitches seems there at times). 

Why aren't these abilities translating into results? To me, it's largely mechanical/mental. I think he still has the athleticism to produce, but other things are getting in the way. 

His footspeed and batspeed lead me to the opposite conclusion.  I think his athleticism is down sharply the last few years. 

[interloper]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

His footspeed and batspeed lead me to the opposite conclusion.  I think his athleticism is down sharply the last few years. 

I'm not doubting that this could be the case, but do we have proof of any difference in bat speed?

[Frobby]

40 minutes ago, interloper said:

Sure but to be fair, that's what we said about Davis for a good 2 years. 

I was about to write that I didn’t think Davis ever looked this bad over a 10-game stretch last year.   But I checked, and I’m wrong:

Games 18-27: .133 BA, .441 OPS, 16 K’s in 39 PA.

Games 39-48: .075 BA, .298 OPS, 22 K’s In 41 PA

Games 77-86; .111 BA, .460 OPS, 12 K’s In 42 PA

Games 112-121: .152 BA, .455 OPS, 15 K’s in 37 PA

The current stretch is .088 BA, .401 OPS, 9 K’s in 40 PA.

[clapdiddy]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

His footspeed and batspeed lead me to the opposite conclusion.  I think his athleticism is down sharply the last few years. 

Agreed.   His apparent athleticism (for a big guy) was one reason why I said that he'd last longer than Ryan Howard, who never struck me as being athletic.

I don't know what happened to him, but he's definitely lost a lot of that athleticism.

[clapdiddy]

4 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not doubting that this could be the case, but do we have proof of any difference in bat speed?

Have you watched him hit in the last season and a half? 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, interloper said:

I'm not doubting that this could be the case, but do we have proof of any difference in bat speed?

Other than observing him?

It looks to me like his exit velocity is down.

[interloper]

Just now, clapdiddy said:

Have you watched him hit in the last season and a half? 

Of course, but I don't really see a lack of bat speed. That's an easy thing to just say about a hitter, but it's another to actually determine if that's really what's going on. And at this point in our discourse about Chris Davis, we should be looking for hard data, not just continuing to grouse about the fact that he's done (which he might be!). 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Agreed.   His apparent athleticism (for a big guy) was one reason why I said that he'd last longer than Ryan Howard, who never struck me as being athletic.

I don't know what happened to him, but he's definitely lost a lot of that athleticism.

I don't know if he ever really was that athletic.

Davis looks so smooth out there and I think that causes him to look more athletic than he actually is.  It is not as if the metrics ever showed him as being good at third or the outfield.

[theocean]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

His footspeed and batspeed lead me to the opposite conclusion.  I think his athleticism is down sharply the last few years. 

He looks way less athletic at the plate and first base. Also, you can just look at him and see he has absolutely no confidence out there. It's almost like he has the yips.

[webbrick2010]

I'll forever be befuddled that 1: many (at least some that will still admit) that they are surprised at how bad he is , and 2: that the O's offered this contract simply because:

1. He hit .196 in 2014

2. He had ADHD issues and used a stimulant to control those while also being addicted to chewing tobacco, how did that not raise red flags with the medical department, or do they just screen pitchers?

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, interloper said:

What's weird to me is he seems to still be able to get around on pitches enough to pull them into the shift. If seems to be more a case of not making good enough contact. If he can still pull balls, he should still be able to let the ball travel and blast them out of the park the opposite way, no? 

Chris Davis has seen 56 fastballs of 92mph of greater this year.

31 were called strikes, fouls, or swinging strikes.

5 were put in play, none were pulled or hit into the shift.

The hardest hit ball against 92+ velocity was 87mph.