Manny signs with Padres

[DrungoHazewood]

15 minutes ago, Uli2001 said:

These stats need to be adjusted for different eras. This is the era of the HR.

That's a benefit of using WAR, it adjusts for context.  Although you do have to take into consideration that Manny was in the majors roughly a year earlier than Cal.

The important bit of a Cal comp is that from 26-35 he was worth 50+ wins, which in today's money is about $400M before inflation.  So Manny only needs to be about 75% of Cal over the next decade to earn his contract.  

 

[theocean]

1 minute ago, Uli2001 said:

In the end it's irrelevant if MM can hit a few more homeruns than CR. I don't think he will have the same impact to the game as CR.

Cal's a big deal because he was the first of his kind at the shortstop position. He blazed the trail for ARod, Garciaparra, Jeter, and all the awesome shortstops that are in the game now.

The Streak and his doing-things-the-right-way image also contributed.

[theocean]

28 minutes ago, Ohfan67 said:

Saw this quote in an ESPN article about the deal:

"He got booed in Baltimore three weeks before we traded for him," the Dodgers' Andrew Friedman said at the general managers meetings on Nov. 6. "It's not like it was a secret. ... I think there are other times where guys do it and they really do care. And by care, I mean the effort they put into their work, the type of teammate they are, and Manny checks all those boxes."

 

Huh? Did I miss where Baltimore fans booed Manny for not hustling? I have no memory of this happening. 

He wasn't running out ground balls and the fans let him hear it on more than one occasion last year.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, GuidoSarducci said:

For the majority of his career, and most productive years, Cal played in a era of infrequent homeruns

He was in his late 30s in the late 90s-early 00s during the HR boom, which subsided somewhat but not back to the levels it was in the 80s-early 90s when Ripken was at his peak

https://www.baseball-reference.com/leagues/MLB/bat.shtml

For example, last year there were 1.15 HR per game

In 1991, one of Cal's best careers, that number was 0.8.   It was below 1 from 1981-1994 for the exception of one year.    Its been above 1 for most years since 2001

 

I believe in Cal’s career the average was about .98.   In his first five years, it was .92.    For Manny, it’s been about 1.12.    So, about 22% higher HR frequency compared to Cal’s early years, and 11% more PA.    Factor those in and they would be very close.   

[TonySoprano]

The Phillies think Harper is more valuable?

[GuidoSarducci]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I believe in Cal’s career the average was about .98.   In his first five years, it was .92.    For Manny, it’s been about 1.12.    So, about 22% higher HR frequency compared to Cal’s early years, and 11% more PA.    Factor those in and they would be very close.   

I agree Manny is about the same offensive output as Cal when you consider the eras

Cal was much more valuable defensively and had way better intangibles

[DrungoHazewood]

5 minutes ago, theocean said:

The Orioles could have always afforded Machado. Any team can. It's just if its a good idea or not.

The median MLB payroll is what... about $130M?  $30M a year is less than a quarter of that.  The Rays regularly contend in the AL East with a payroll well under $100M.  Just about any team could put together a winning season with Manny fitting into a league-average payroll.

I'm happy for Manny.  He goes to a good city that's trying to build a winner around him.  He's not going to Boston or NY, which kind of flies in the face of this all being about the Manny brand on a huge stage.  

[theocean]

1 minute ago, DrungoHazewood said:

The median MLB payroll is what... about $130M?  $30M a year is less than a quarter of that.  The Rays regularly contend in the AL East with a payroll well under $100M.  Just about any team could put together a winning season with Manny fitting into a league-average payroll.

I'm happy for Manny.  He goes to a good city that's trying to build a winner around him.  He's not going to Boston or NY, which kind of flies in the face of this all being about the Manny brand on a huge stage.  

Exactly. Any team could afford him. It's just if his prime years match up with the window that your team is putting together. That should really be the only consideration.

[TonySoprano]

 

[Moose Milligan]

6 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

I'm happy for Manny.  He goes to a good city that's trying to build a winner around him.  He's not going to Boston or NY, which kind of flies in the face of this all being about the Manny brand on a huge stage.  

Will be checking out some Padres games on mlbtv after the Orioles games finish this year.

[DrungoHazewood]

3 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

I agree Manny is about the same offensive output as Cal when you consider the eras

Cal was much more valuable defensively and had way better intangibles

Manny has been +16 in defensive runs plus positional adjustment per 150 games.  That includes a pretty dismal half-year at short in '18.

Through 25 Cal was +19.5.  So Cal was a bit more valuable defensively, about 3.5 runs per year.

I'll let you personally decide how to gauge intangibles and their impact.

[atomic]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, now it’s time for all the geniuses here who said Manny wouldn’t get $300 mm to eat crow.    I’m pretty sure that includes atomic and webbrick2010.     Fess up boys, you were WRONG.

  

 

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Well, now it’s time for all the geniuses here who said Manny wouldn’t get $300 mm to eat crow.    I’m pretty sure that includes atomic and webbrick2010.     Fess up boys, you were WRONG.

  

Yeah I was wrong.  Never underestimate the stupidity of baseball owners.  Now they can pay $21 million to Harper and $30 million to Manny and still finish in last place as they don't have any pitching. 

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, GuidoSarducci said:

I agree Manny is about the same offensive output as Cal when you consider the eras

Cal was much more valuable defensively and had way better intangibles

I’m not going to sit here and argue that Manny is likely to turn out to be better than Cal Ripken.   The odds of that aren’t high, as good as Manny is.   I wouldn’t be that surprised, though, if Manny had the better offensive career.   Cal had a 131 OPS+ through age 25 but only 106 for the rest of his career, for a career 112 OPS+.   Manny is at 121 now and I think his best offensive years are in front of him, though playing in San Diego will keep his unadjusted numbers down.   

[atomic]

17 minutes ago, theocean said:

Cal's a big deal because he was the first of his kind at the shortstop position. He blazed the trail for ARod, Garciaparra, Jeter, and all the awesome shortstops that are in the game now.

 The Streak and his doing-things-the-right-way image also contributed.

Robin Yount. 

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, atomic said:

 

Yeah I was wrong.  Never underestimate the stupidity of baseball owners.  Now they can pay $21 million to Harper and $30 million to Manny and still finish in last place as they don't have any pitching. 

I don’t think the Padres will contend this year, but they have a terrific farm system and stand a pretty good chance of contending pretty soon.  

The Hosmer deal was far more stupid than this one.  Barring serious injury, I think Manny will earn that deal.    But we’ll see.

Now we’ll find out if Harper gets more money than Manny.   I predicted he would, you said he wouldn’t.   I don’t particularly want to be right about that, but I think I will be.