Official 2019 Wins Prediction

[TonySoprano]

Way back when I would start these, I had two choices for below.500 records, but not this year.  Nope, we'll need several more.   
The 25 man roster is almost set.  Poll closes in 1 month.

[wildbillhiccup]

If this team gets to 60 wins then Brandon Hyde deserves a few manager of the year votes. For the record I voted "46 or less" because I view this as a much worse team than last year. In the somewhat modern era I believe the Mets had one of the worst records in the 60s (40-120). I think we could very well challenge that mark. 

[Natty]

We won 47 games last year. My prediction is we will be worse.

[Natty]

42-45 wins. 

[Philip]

“46 or fewer.”

but im guessing 66-70, although if Elias is deliberately keeping guys in the minors when they could help the team without hurting themselves, all bets are off.

[spiritof66]

I think the record will equal or improve slightly over last year. The Orioles in 2018 were 13-25 against the Jays and Rays and 3-16 against the Red Sox, and I think they should win a few more of those matchups in 2019.

No comment on the NYYs (7-12 in 2018) except to say it's likely to be a slow year for the "Orioles Win, Yankees Lose" thread.

[wildbillhiccup]

Just for comparison the Astros suffered through three 100+ losing seasons and it took them five seasons to get over .500. Are we ahead or behind them in terms of pace? At this point it's tough to say. I think the Astros had at least two soon to be stars on their roster in 2011 (Altuve and JD Martinez) , but their minor league system was in shambles (ranked 26th overall in terms of depth). I feel like we're probably behind them in the star department, but a bit ahead in terms of minor league talent. Another fun fact is that Jonathan Villar was in the Astros minor league system in 2011. 

Houston Astros

2015 - 86 - 76

2014 - 70 - 92

2013 - 51 - 111

2012 - 55 - 107

2011 - 56 - 106

[interloper]

69 wins.

Nice.

[wildbillhiccup]

10 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

I think the record will equal or improve slightly over last year. The Orioles in 2018 were 13-25 against the Jays and Rays and 3-16 against the Red Sox, and I think they should win a few more of those matchups in 2019.

No comment on the NYYs (7-12 in 2018) except to say it's likely to be a slow year for the "Orioles Win, Yankees Lose" thread.

I'm curious how? And I'm being serious. I'd really like to know how you think a team that had Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman for almost 3/4 of the season last year is going to win more games without them. And as much as I like the Brandon Hyde signing he's not going to be able to squeeze blood from a turnip. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Way back when I would start these, I had two choices for below.500 records, but not this year.  Nope, we'll need several more.   
The 25 man roster is almost set. Poll closes in 1 month.

If I’d read that before I voted, I would have waited!

I picked 51-55, because that’s incredibly awful without being quite as awful as last year.    Honestly, based on the talent currently on our major league roster, we could be worse than in 2018, but I’m assuming that a fresh attitude and some analytic voodoo probably buy us a few more wins than last year.    Not a lot more, unfortunately.    

[TonySoprano]

20 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

No comment on the NYYs (7-12 in 2018) except to say it's likely to be a slow year for the "Orioles Win, Yankees Lose" thread.

MLB loaded up NYY early and often : 6 of first 9 and 13 of 52 are vs NY.  The other 39 games are BOS (7), TB (6), CHW (6), MIN (6), CLE (4), OAK (4), TOR (3), LAA (3).

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

If I’d read that before I voted, I would have waited!

I picked 51-55, because that’s incredibly awful without being quite as awful as last year.    Honestly, based on the talent currently on our major league roster, we could be worse than in 2018, but I’m assuming that a fresh attitude and some analytic voodoo probably buy us a few more wins than last year.    Not a lot more, unfortunately.    

I gave it one month only for the lollygaggers.  You shouldn't need a weatherman to know which way the wind blows long before then.
 

 

 

[spiritof66]

21 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I'm curious how? And I'm being serious. I'd really like to know how you think a team that had Machado, Britton, Schoop and Gausman for almost 3/4 of the season last year is going to win more games without them. And as much as I like the Brandon Hyde signing he's not going to be able to squeeze blood from a turnip. 

I wouldn't be surprised if the Orioles won 47 games again, or even just 40. But comparing this year's team to last year's is, for me, a little tricky. Bad as they were, and despite the impressive number of offensive and defensive categories in which the Orioles were last or nearly last in the league (I collected them in several posts), the team's Pythagorean record was 55-107. That suggests to me that some bad luck, poor clutch performances and/or bad decision-making contributed to a season of .290 baseball. 

Apart from eliminating or reducing some of those factors, I'd like to think there's a basis for being optimistic about the Orioles matching or doing a little better than that in 2019 .

You mention four departed players, but the only one of the four who made a significant positive contribution to the Orioles last season was Manny. Schoop and Gausman weren't very productive. Zach threw only 16 innings for the O's (some of them un-Zach like), and an elite closer is of limited value to a crappy team, especially with Buck Showalter at the helm. 

There are areas in which this year's team might be better, especially if it survives the first month or so of the season. Some examples. I'm hoping, reasonably I think, for addition by the subtraction and replacement of Davis (eventually), Jones, Joseph and Beckham, some improvement from Cobb and Cashner, better results from the continuing trial-and-error with the back of the rotation, bigger contributions from Fry and Bleier (as long as he's around), and a better performance by Givens. (I'm also hoping, unreasonably I guess, for some help from Bundy.) Maybe a couple of the young guys will break out, especially later in the year. (The Hays injury puts a good-sized dent in that hope, but let's see what happens there.)

The point of my earlier post was that, even if the Orioles are as bad or worse than last year, I think the intra-division competition is not as strong, so that they have a realistic chance to do better against Toronto (which I see as a mediocre-to-bad team this year) and TB (which I think will be weaker than last year). And I think it will be hard to do as badly as 3-16 against the Red Sox (who I  believe also will be weaker than last year, but that's almost irrelevant).

I'm not betting on any over/unders this year -- I learned my lesson the last two years. But that's the guess I'm starting the season with.

[24fps]

56-60 is my optimistic take.  As long as 63 seems a reasonable possibility, I'll be paying attention.  I wouldn't be surprised with 50 but I never expect the team to win less than that ever again.

[mdbdotcom]

59

[rudyrooster]

56-60.   Optimistically.