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Mancini Trade Package

bird watcher

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Frobby
Frobby

For the record, the Cubs won 71 games the season immediately before Theo was hired.   So they were 10 games worse than before his first year with the Cubs.   He took payroll from $136 mm to $86 mm, th

Moose Milligan
Moose Milligan

Clearly an OHer is writing for espn.com 

LookinUp
LookinUp

Using Orioles prospect equivalents, here's a wild, totally unsupported, guess. 1. Keegan Akin 2. Rylan Bannon 3. Jean Carlos Encarnacion The first looks like a sure fire ML roster guy. A

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sportsfan8703 Hangout Grand Counsel

sportsfan8703

Posted
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3 minutes ago, weams said:

Proactive in that they are not obligating salary until they are competitive again?

If they know that Mancini isn't going to be here when we're competitive again, then why not try to trade him now while he's coming off a "big" year?  Obviously, there has to be two to tango.  

I just don't like the idea of playing out the string, when everyone knows what's going to happen.  Just make it happen now, and possibly get a better return.  

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weams

Posted
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2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

If they know that Mancini isn't going to be here when we're competitive again, then why not try to trade him now while he's coming off a "big" year?  Obviously, there has to be two to tango.  

I just don't like the idea of playing out the string, when everyone knows what's going to happen.  Just make it happen now, and possibly get a better return.  

Don't worry. Trey will get traded when someone wants him. Whether Roch believes or not. C.J. Cron is getting non tendered. Guys like Trey are not currently popular for money. 

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sportsfan8703

Posted
Posted (edited)
4 minutes ago, weams said:

Don't worry. Trey will get traded when someone wants him. Whether Roch believes or not. C.J. Cron is getting non tendered. Guys like Trey are not currently popular for money. 

I agree.  That gives me little hope that they'd to a long term deal with Mountcastle.  I think they'll just delay his start time until they get 7 years of control of him, and then just be content with that.  Diaz might be the first prospect that we look to extend, but he got paid a pretty good signing bonus out of Cuba, so I doubt he'd give us too much of a discount.  

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
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6 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I agree.  That gives me little hope that they'd to a long term deal with Mountcastle.  I think they'll just delay his start time until they get 7 years of control of him, and then just be content with that.  Diaz might be the first prospect that we look to extend, but he got paid a pretty good signing bonus out of Cuba, so I doubt he'd give us too much of a discount.  

Yes, and yes. Though half of Diaz' expense went to MLB as a cap fine. 

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sportsfan8703

Posted
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3 minutes ago, weams said:

Yes, and yes. Though half of Diaz' expense went to MLB as a cap fine. 

Diaz got 15.5 million in a signing bonus.  I don't think we're going to get a big time team friendly deal from him.  Just to go further, AR got a pretty big bonus with being the #1 pick.  We might not even have a player in the system that would be a realistic extend option at the moment.  

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Frobby

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27 minutes ago, weams said:

Don't worry. Trey will get traded when someone wants him. Whether Roch believes or not. C.J. Cron is getting non tendered. Guys like Trey are not currently popular for money. 

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but Trey is a much better player than C.J. Cron in my opinion.    Cron has never had a season above 2.0 WAR, and Trey has had two in his first three years.   Trey has a career OPS+ of 119 to Cron’s 110.

FWIW, I do not think Trey will get $5.7 mm in arbitration as MLBTR projects.    I think he comes in under $5 mm.   Not sure what they’re smoking over there at MLBTR.

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weams

Posted
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31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but Trey is a much better player than C.J. Cron in my opinion.    Cron has never had a season above 2.0 WAR, and Trey has had two in his first three years.   Trey has a career OPS+ of 119 to Cron’s 110.

FWIW, I do not think Trey will get $5.7 mm in arbitration as MLBTR projects.    I think he comes in under $5 mm.   Not sure what they’re smoking over there at MLBTR.

They have almost always been right. Maybe this new trend will get them flatfooted. 

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Frobby

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40 minutes ago, weams said:

They have almost always been right. Maybe this new trend will get them flatfooted. 

I disagree that they have almost always been right.    They’re generally in the ballpark, but they’ve been off by $1 mm+ many times.    For example, in 2018 they projected Gausman for $6.8 mm and he got $5.6 mm.   They had Manny at $17.3 mm, and he got $16 mm.    They had Schoop at $9.1 mm, and he got $8.5 mm (not off by $1 mm, but $600 k is still a lot).    

They are significantly wrong on Villar and Mancini IMO.    However, we probably won’t find out what Villar would have gotten if he had been tendered.    I expect we will find out about Mancini.    

I don’t think they’re far off base on any of the others, though they ended up $185 k on Bleier.   

 

 

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weams

Posted
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1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I disagree that they have almost always been right.    They’re generally in the ballpark, but they’ve been off by $1 mm+ many times.    For example, in 2018 they projected Gausman for $6.8 mm and he got $5.6 mm.   They had Manny at $17.3 mm, and he got $16 mm.    They had Schoop at $9.1 mm, and he got $8.5 mm (not off by $1 mm, but $600 k is still a lot).    

They are significantly wrong on Villar and Mancini IMO.    However, we probably won’t find out what Villar would have gotten if he had been tendered.    I expect we will find out about Mancini.    

I don’t think they’re far off base on any of the others, though they ended up $185 k on Bleier.   

 

 

I think 90th percentile is good guessing. 

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weams Hangout Grand Counsel

weams

Posted
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4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I don’t think they’re far off base on any of the others, though they ended up $185 k on Bleier.   

 

 

I only count it if they actually go to arbitration. And there are many variables then. A side can over play their position leaving the arbitrator no choice but to go with the other. 

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wildbillhiccup

Posted
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1 hour ago, Frobby said:

I’m not disagreeing with your overall point, but Trey is a much better player than C.J. Cron in my opinion.    Cron has never had a season above 2.0 WAR, and Trey has had two in his first three years.   Trey has a career OPS+ of 119 to Cron’s 110.

FWIW, I do not think Trey will get $5.7 mm in arbitration as MLBTR projects.    I think he comes in under $5 mm.   Not sure what they’re smoking over there at MLBTR.

Mancini's a much better hitter than Cron. Just look at the splits. Much higher OBP too. 

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Frobby

Posted
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1 hour ago, weams said:

I think 90th percentile is good guessing. 

90th percentile of what?    This isn’t rocket science.   You basically look at what the player earned the year before and what similar players earned when they were at the same level of arbitration.    And you won’t find Mancini comps earning $5.7 mm in Arb-1.   

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