Mancini Trade Package

[Roll Tide]

21 hours ago, Babypowder said:

Indeed he has, but that’s in only ~200 plate appearances of relatively sporadic frequency so far in his career. DHing every day could be a different animal. 

You can always come up with something like this when discussing any player. That is what makes forecasting so difficult.

 

[tntoriole]

On 12/4/2019 at 2:56 PM, Philip said:

No worries. my point is that Mancini has minimal value because his offense is easy to get these days. Well, it’s not easy to get, but it is not so difficult to get that Mancini has significant trade value.  Yes his offensive result was good, and I haven’t looked to see how much of it was driven by luck, but teams are being much more careful about how they spend their money. A bad team would be happy to have Mancini, because he’s probably better than what they have. On the other hand a bad team might very well be happy going with their current first baseman rather than paying a premium for A slightly better overall player. Think Seattle. dan Vogelbach Is it fun to watch hard hitting first baseman, he doesn’t hit for very much average, and his defense is not outstanding. But he’s league minimum at the moment. Mancini would be a better first baseman for them, but they are happy to ride with what they have. At the other end of the scale, the outstanding teams already have a player who is better than Mancini. Whether that player costs more or not is irrelevant because they already have him. Therefore for one reason or another, it is unlikely that anybody is interested in paying anything significant to get Mancini because he is limited.

Yeah, just do me a favor and don’t tell Trey he’s “limited”.  He hates that.  He still thinks he has room to improve.  You know those driven “limited” types.  Just going out and exceeding the predictions of analyses and all.   His performance must just be “driven by luck” like you say, because analyses could certainly never be wrong or over value certain baseball players and under value other baseball players...oh no...

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, tntoriole said:

Yeah, just do me a favor and don’t tell Trey he’s “limited”.  He hates that.  He still thinks he has room to improve.  You know those driven “limited” types.  Just going out and exceeding the predictions of analyses and all.   His performance must just be “driven by luck” like you say, because analyses could certainly never be wrong or over value certain baseball players and under value other baseball players...oh no...

For days various guys here have mentioned how limited or or of low value our guys are. Its almost as if they are undervaluing them as Orioles fans which is in stark contrast to the usual approach. Either is fine I suppose but getting little for our guys just means a longer and more painful rebuilding process.

I can't see how a guy like Mancini would be coveted for his bat. I realize he needs to play the field at 1B, OF, or in the AL as a DH. He certainly is a weaker OF in regards to defense and maybe average at 1B. The problem with judging his 1B based off last years was the limited number of games and all the bouncing around.

Anyway we can only hope guys like Philip have it wrong! Obviously it only really matters how he is viewed by GMs.

[Can_of_corn]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

For days various guys here have mentioned how limited or or of low value our guys are. Its almost as if they are undervaluing them as Orioles fans which is in stark contrast to the usual approach. Either is fine I suppose but getting little for our guys just means a longer and more painful rebuilding process.

 

On general I downgrade any projected return on players since it appears to me that teams just don't pony up prospects like they used to.

[thezeroes]

42 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

On general I downgrade any projected return on players since it appears to me that teams just don't pony up prospects like they used to.

I think that it would be more prudent to have a list of the top ten teams, the middle ten teams, and the bottom feeders in ones thought process when discussing trades.

The top ten teams usually are set over the winter months as far as roster acquisition and if not they just BUY the needed players. These teams are usually the trade partners in July when BUYING is not available.

The bottom ten teams tend to be the sellers of assets.  These teams can be trade partners IF they are looking to augment rosters to flip them for the July trading period.

The middle ten teams are the targets of the bottom ten.  If theses ten teams had the $$$ they would BUY their needs but they usually try to acquire them through deals.

Propagate this list, check on their needs and see what they have available.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

On general I downgrade any projected return on players since it appears to me that teams just don't pony up prospects like they used to.

The problem for the Orioles is that they never had enough trade chips to get players that would make a meaningful difference when were contending a few years ago. Now we can't trade our best trade chips for meaningful prospects for our future.

[sportsfan8703]

25 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

The problem for the Orioles is that they never had enough trade chips to get players that would make a meaningful difference when were contending a few years ago. Now we can't trade our best trade chips for meaningful prospects for our future.

You can’t say the bolded part definitively. 

DD got pretty good returns. Heck, he got your boy “Superstar Villar”.  

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

You can’t say the bolded part definitively. 

DD got pretty good returns. Heck, he got your boy “Superstar Villar”.  

I was responding to the narrative that teams are no longer interested in " teams just don't pony up prospects " by @Can_of_corn

 

Yeah, I know and was more speaking of where we are now. I think if you look back most were disappointed in the returns for Schoop and Manny. You can probably blame Villar on the Brewers as its my understanding that he was sent over to get the deal done in regards to salary consideration. I'm not sure if that take is accurate or not so please don't ask me to find a link to confirm it.

 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

The problem for the Orioles is that they never had enough trade chips to get players that would make a meaningful difference when were contending a few years ago. Now we can't trade our best trade chips for meaningful prospects for our future.

Was just thinking this.    Our needs have not met the timing of the market very well.   We gave up Arrieta and Strop for two months of Scott Feldman, and now can’t get a top 100 prospect type for two years of Dylan Bundy.    Sigh.   Hope some of the four guys we acquired turn into something.   

[Roll Tide]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Was just thinking this.    Our needs have not met the timing of the market very well.   We gave up Arrieta and Strop for two months of Scott Feldman, and now can’t get a top 100 prospect type for two years of Dylan Bundy.    Sigh.   Hope some of the four guys we acquired turn into something.   

I like Luke's evaluation which I'm sure is way more scientific than my attempt at grading those arm. But he has all of them either inside or just out of our top 30. 

I had Bradish there and consider Mattson as a good relief possibly that typically doesn't merit top prospect status. 

I don't know about Easton and I'm not sure how we can rank someone's #6 and #8 draft selections in the top 30 (Luke had one in and one out).

I personally can't do that and wonder if he had our picks 2-6 from last years draft and 7 & 8 ahead of the guy that was selected in their 8th round.

[sportsfan8703]

Mancini and Castellanos are pretty similar on paper. I don’t know if that is the perception of all the teams in MLB though. 

MLBTR has these teams as being fits for Castellanos,

 The Cubs remain an option, and the White Sox, Marlins, Reds, Giants, Diamondbacks, Padres, Indians, and Angels could be possibilities.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2019/11/mlb-free-agent-predictions-2020.html

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Was just thinking this.    Our needs have not met the timing of the market very well.   We gave up Arrieta and Strop for two months of Scott Feldman, and now can’t get a top 100 prospect type for two years of Dylan Bundy.    Sigh.   Hope some of the four guys we acquired turn into something.   

And the flip side of deals hasn’t worked out either...Duquette trades a now 26 year old Zach Davies for two months of Gerardo Parra

And the analysts just were praising this deal profusely at the time....except for one who said well, Davies might be a good prospect , but you have to give up top pitching prospects to get a left fielder.  It seems that kind of thinking is no longer what GMs think.  

 

 https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-instant-analysis-of-orioles-trade-for-gerardo-parra-from-the-milwaukee-brewers-20150731-story.html

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, tntoriole said:

And the flip side of deals hasn’t worked out either...Duquette trades a now 26 year old Zach Davies for two months of Gerardo Parra

And the analysts just were praising this deal profusely at the time....except for one who said well, Davies might be a good prospect , but you have to give up top pitching prospects to get a left fielder.  It seems that kind of thinking is no longer what GMs think.  

 

 https://www.baltimoresun.com/sports/orioles/bal-instant-analysis-of-orioles-trade-for-gerardo-parra-from-the-milwaukee-brewers-20150731-story.html

I love to look back on the poll threads at the time of the trades.   Everyone now criticizes it, yet when the trade was made, opinions were very evenly split, 49.22% in favor and 50.78% against.    I’m happy to say I was on the “against” side, though I was still hoping it would work out.   
 

 

[Roll Tide]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I love to look back on the poll threads at the time of the trades.   Everyone now criticizes it, yet when the trade was made, opinions were very evenly split, 49.22% in favor and 50.78% against.    I’m happy to say I was on the “against” side, though I was still hoping it would work out.   
 

 

I voted approval for the deal back then. However, As I recall we had passed or missed out on better players due to the lack of opinion about our system and prospects. I seem to remember a period where every trade rumor about the Orioles was Bundy or Gausman and little interest in anything else when the Orioles said NO.

But let's not pretend that Davies was anything special as a prospect. He was a 26th rounder and I would be surprised if he was ranked anywhere near MLBs top 100. People also point at the deal to Boston of Eduardo Rodriguez and I have nearly the same thought. He was probably higher rated in our system but was he rated in the top 100?

[tntoriole]

11 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I love to look back on the poll threads at the time of the trades.   Everyone now criticizes it, yet when the trade was made, opinions were very evenly split, 49.22% in favor and 50.78% against.    I’m happy to say I was on the “against” side, though I was still hoping it would work out.   
 

 

I hated it at the time though I somehow missed voting in the poll.  I hated it again in my comment in the thread in 2016. And now.  It was the worst Duquette move imho.   I think I said something like wishing Dan had gone to Toronto...lol.  Trading our remaining top pitching prospect for two months of a left fielder that did not move the needle in a season that was not going anywhere fast anyway.  I supported the Arrieta deal at the time, the Miller deal absolutely then and niw, the Norris for Hader deal at the time and even now it made sense...I understood them.   But that deal for Parra and the Snider deal were just completely perplexing.  And, of course, Dan never deigned to explain his thinking to us fans anyway except for rosy, spin comments.   But, hey, that is all water under the bridge and we are moving on!!  

On a Cubs blog, they were speculating about Trey and postulated Ian Happ and Adbert Alzolay coming back.  Thoughts about that scenario?  Sounds pretty fair to me off first glance. 

 

https://cubbiescrib.com/2019/12/05/chicago-cubs-trey-mancini-trade-target/