TT: Scouting the 40 man: Who will be part of a winning future?

[Tony-OH]

http://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/06/29/scouting-the-40-man-roster-who-will-be-part-of-a-winning-future/

[El_Duderino]

Hope you are right on those Chris Davis percentages.

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, El_Duderino said:

Hope you are right on those Chris Davis percentages.

I don't think Tony is saying Davis would be gone.  Just that his chance of being a significant contributor is very low.

[El_Duderino]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Tony is saying Davis would be gone.  Just that his chance of being a significant contributor is very low.

Ahh. Well in that case 10% seems high for next year.

[wildcard]

Looks like Tony does not think Mancini will be traded until at least 2023.

He also seem to think Harvey and Hays have a really good chance for stay healthy.

[Frobby]

Very interesting.   If you add up all the odds, we’d expect 5.5 players now on the roster to still be there in 2023.    

I’d love to hear the odds on the guys in AA/AAA now who aren’t on the 40-man.    I’d say several have better odds than all but Means, Harvey and Hays.

I’m sure Legend_of_Joey won’t be happy with the odds on Wynns.  

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I don't think Tony is saying Davis would be gone.  Just that his chance of being a significant contributor is very low.

No, I think he will be gone. I can't see ownership forcing Elias to keep him after this season.

[Tony-OH]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Very interesting.   If you add up all the odds, we’d expect 5.5 players now on the roster to still be there in 2023.    

I’d love to hear the odds on the guys in AA/AAA now who aren’t on the 40-man.    I’d say several have better odds than all but Means, Harvey and Hays.

I’m sure Legend_of_Joey won’t be happy with the odds on Wynns.  

I plan on doing prospects like this as well...

[wildcard]

2 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

No, I think he will be gone. I can't see ownership forcing Elias to keep him after this season.

That is probably a good guess.  I take the other route.   I don't see Elias asking ownership to eat Davis' contract until the team is ready to win.  The will not be in 2020.

[thezeroes]

If there is a REAL NEED on the Forty Man to protect a player from the Rule 5, Davis is first on my list over the fall/winter

[Tony-OH]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

Looks like Tony does not think Mancini will be traded until at least 2023.

He also seem to think Harvey and Hays have a really good chance for stay healthy.

They both clearly have the talent, it's just whether they can stay healthy. 

[HowAboutThat]

 Very interesting list, I am really disappointed at so many guys who are projected to be below average. I don’t know how many guys have to be added to the 40 man to protect them from the rule five, and I actually expect us to make at least one pic in the rule 5 ourselves, So I expect six or seven of these guys to just be gone, plus the guys we trade which as of today almost certainly includes Cashner.

[HowAboutThat]

I guess Bleier doesn’t survive. That’s a little disappointing, I like him, but he’s got three years in the bigs, 1mil+, Pension, perks and healthcare. He’ll be fine.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

 Very interesting list, I am really disappointed at so many guys who are projected to be below average. I don’t know how many guys have to be added to the 40 man to protect them from the rule five, and I actually expect us to make at least one pic in the rule 5 ourselves, So I expect six or seven of these guys to just be gone, plus the guys we trade which as of today almost certainly includes Cashner.

Why? This is the worse tam in baseball and their best prospects aren't on the 40-man. 

[HowAboutThat]

21 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Why? This is the worse tam in baseball and their best prospects aren't on the 40-man. 

Oh I know that, it’s just depressing to see it all out in the open. I’m not sure who our best fWAR guy is(Mancini at 1.6?) But I bet the entire team together doesn’t have 5WAR.