TT: Scouting the 40 man: Who will be part of a winning future?

[survivedc]

Didn’t do a whole lot of research but to compare teams from 2015-2019

Yankees have 9 guys on both rosters, though I counted 3 60day guys

Dodgers also have 9 guys on both rosters. 

I’d be pretty happy with 5 guys out of this group but I think this amount of roster turnover may be more common than we think.

[Sessh]

Guys who have a decent chance IMO are Means, Mancini, Santander, Severino, Sisco, Kline and Scott. I do think Harvey has a great chance of being our closer of the future if he can stay healthy in his new role. Not all that high on Hays personally, but that could change as will this list over time I'm sure. Some of these guys we're seeing now will certainly be there and I do think one of the catchers will be and Rutschman will not be catching full time and could end up at 1B instead. I think Elias recognizes that if his bat is as advertised, it is more important to protect that asset and that includes not putting him at a position with a higher injury risk and cutting his high production years short.

Most of these guys probably won't be here, but some will be. CF, LF and all four IF positions will be different. I think Santander will nail down RF if he's here. If Mancini is here, he's DH and occasional 1B/RF. Starting rotation will be different obviously. Bundy may still be here. Some of our pitching in the minors will be, but I don't think we have any slam dunks down there for the rotation. Maybe Eshelman will earn a back-end spot, who knows? He's the most intriguing ATM since he's the most ready for an extended look and I guess we'll have that answer by the end of the season. Seems he may make his debut in the TB series. I'm sure there will be some surprises. Should be fun.

[DrungoHazewood]

 

7 hours ago, Philip said:

Oh I know that, it’s just depressing to see it all out in the open. I’m not sure who our best fWAR guy is(Mancini at 1.6?) But I bet the entire team together doesn’t have 5WAR.

Hitters: +3.1 rWAR

Pitchers: +2.1

[mdbdotcom]

Would be nice if either Stewart or Santander could break out and get above the 45 mark.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

18 hours ago, Frobby said:

Very interesting.   If you add up all the odds, we’d expect 5.5 players now on the roster to still be there in 2023.    

I’d love to hear the odds on the guys in AA/AAA now who aren’t on the 40-man.    I’d say several have better odds than all but Means, Harvey and Hays.

I’m sure Legend_of_Joey won’t be happy with the odds on Wynns.  

The writing is on the wall. I'm just glad he got time in the majors and atleast comes back up in September, if not sooner.

Severino and Sisco having such high percentages though was a shock. I figure one would be moved before then. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

The writing is on the wall. I'm just glad he got time in the majors and atleast comes back up in September, if not sooner.

Severino and Sisco having such high percentages though was a shock. I figure one would be moved before then. 

He did a heck of a job even making the majors. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He did a heck of a job even making the majors. 

Not bad for a 10th round, Senior sign who was the 4th catcher drafted by them. 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Not bad for a 10th round, Senior sign who was the 4th catcher drafted by them. 

Wouldn't be surprised if he could become a baseball lifer if he wanted to.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

 

Hitters: +3.1 rWAR

Pitchers: +2.1

5.2

I was pretty close

[sportsfan8703]

I think you can just look at the system in waves,

2020: Hitters. The names we know. Mountcastle, Hays, Mullins, Diaz. 

Akin, Harvey.

2021-2022: Pitchers. Look at the Bowie, Frederick, Delmarva staffs. 

AR.

2023: The NCAA hitters and Gunnar. 

Our next contending team is going to depend on the pitchers currently in AA-A. AR, next year’s top pick. 

With AR and the recent draft, our system 1-30 is probably average to above. We just have to improve that deep depth. That will get a significant boost with the international market and these big bonus pools for the draft. 

[ChuckS]

12 hours ago, Sessh said:

Guys who have a decent chance IMO are Means, Mancini, Santander, Severino, Sisco, Kline and Scott. I do think Harvey has a great chance of being our closer of the future if he can stay healthy in his new role. Not all that high on Hays personally, but that could change as will this list over time I'm sure. Some of these guys we're seeing now will certainly be there and I do think one of the catchers will be and Rutschman will not be catching full time and could end up at 1B instead. I think Elias recognizes that if his bat is as advertised, it is more important to protect that asset and that includes not putting him at a position with a higher injury risk and cutting his high production years short.

Most of these guys probably won't be here, but some will be. CF, LF and all four IF positions will be different. I think Santander will nail down RF if he's here. If Mancini is here, he's DH and occasional 1B/RF. Starting rotation will be different obviously. Bundy may still be here. Some of our pitching in the minors will be, but I don't think we have any slam dunks down there for the rotation. Maybe Eshelman will earn a back-end spot, who knows? He's the most intriguing ATM since he's the most ready for an extended look and I guess we'll have that answer by the end of the season. Seems he may make his debut in the TB series. I'm sure there will be some surprises. Should be fun.

Unless we are signing Rutschman to a 15 year contract there is no need to move him off catcher before he becomes a free agent.  That would be a terrible waste of defensive talent.  

I think theoretically you can have AR catching 4 days a week and at 1B/DH 2-3 times a week. That should conserve his knees quite a bit.  Sisco could catch twice a week and play 1B/DH three to four times a week if his bat holds up.   

 

 

[ChuckS]

14 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I think you can just look at the system in waves,

2020: Hitters. The names we know. Mountcastle, Hays, Mullins, Diaz. 

Akin, Harvey.

2021-2022: Pitchers. Look at the Bowie, Frederick, Delmarva staffs. 

AR.

2023: The NCAA hitters and Gunnar. 

Our next contending team is going to depend on the pitchers currently in AA-A. AR, next year’s top pick. 

With AR and the recent draft, our system 1-30 is probably average to above. We just have to improve that deep depth. That will get a significant boost with the international market and these big bonus pools for the draft. 

I feel that most of the current Bowie starters will get starts in Baltimore at some point in 2020.  I expect a 2020 Norfolk rotation of Lowther, Wells, Zimmerman, Kremer, and Baumann.   One or two of them could potentially start the season in Baltimore.  So there could be some quick call-ups based on performance and need at the big league level.  

[TommyPickles]

Real cool article and chart.

I really hope John Means does continue his success from this year and becomes our reliable lefty starter for years to come.  I think he will be.

It'll be interesting to see what the catching unit looks like in a couple years.  Lot of good stuff here.  Wonder if there's any chance Sisco, Severino, and Rutschman will ever all be on the team at the same time?  With one of them playing some 1B or DH?

I feel like Mancini deserves to be ranked a little higher than "55 above average" this year.  I think he could at least be "60 plus", which is still below All Star level.  I guess his outfield defense just sinks him, but it sucks because he really should be playing 1B and its out of his hands.  If you look at his 2019 stats compared with all of the qualified AL first basemen, he ranks:

-3rd in OPS (.907)

-5th in HRs (17)

-1st in Avg. (.302)

-3rd in 2Bs (19)

 

That said, I think the 55 future rating for him is totally fair.  

[25 Nuggets]

So to recap, here are the 40-man players by chance of contribution in 2022 and their Future Grade:

• 80% Hunter Harvey (55)
• 80% John Means (55)
• 75% Trey Mancini (55)
• 70% Austin Hays (55)
• 50% Miguel Castro (45)
• 50% Branden Kline (45)
• 50% Pedro Severino (45)
• 50% Chance Sisco (45)
• 40% Anthony Santander (45)
• 40% DJ Stewart (45)
  •  
• 25% Hanser Alberto (45)
• 25% Richie Martin (45)
• 25% Cedric Mullins (40)
• 25% Renato Nunez (50)
• 10% Cody Carroll (40)
• 10% Paul Fry (40)
• 10% David Hess (45)
• 10% Luis Ortiz (40)
• 10% Evan Phillips (40)
• 10% Taylor Scott (40)
• 10% Chandler Shepherd (40)
• 10% Dwight Smith Jr (45)
• 10% Jimmy Yacabonis (45)

That's 23 players - everyone else is listed at 0%.  Interesting that Harvey and Hays are still near the top after being riddled with injuries.

[ChuckS]

I'd put a FV on Sisco of 50 due to his offensive profile getting a big boost this year.  It looks like he's going to be an above average hitting catcher and he has the minor league track record to back it up.  

Severino may be a FV 45, but he's played at a current value 55 or 60 through half a season.  So his outlook may have to be reexamined after this season as well.