Orioles and the 2019 ASG (Mancini out, Means in)

[Spy Fox]

Since the players picked Abreu, the reason it's Means and not Mancini is because the Orioles had a better second option (Means) than the Mariners did after Daniel Vogelbach, who is having a similar-ish season to Mancini. Basically they liked Vogelbach+Means more than Mancini+Domingo Santana or Roenis Elias. 

[ShaneDawg85]

We can debate Mancini vs. Means all day and night, but regardless congratulations to John Means.  Nobody, and I mean nobody could have seen that coming.  Speaking of not seeing that one coming, and for a bit of depressing reality (yeah more of that), John Means is the first Orioles starting pitcher drafted and developed by the team to be selected to the All Star game since Mike Mussina.  I don't count Chris Tillman since he came over in the Bedard trade.  That's bad enough on its own, but of all the starting pitching prospects to come up since Mussina left Means is probably the last one I'd have seen make the All Star team.

[DrungoHazewood]

There can't be too many All Star starting pitchers in all history who will go into the game with less than 100 MLB innings on their resume.  I wonder if there are any?  For most of baseball history, even pretty recently, if you were an All Star caliber starter you'd have over 100 innings (sometimes well over) halfway through your rookie season.

Looks like Mark Fidrych had 101.1 innings at the AS break his rookie year.  Fernando had 127.2 career innings at the '81 All Star game. Francisco Liriano had 112 innings by the '06 game and he was mostly a reliever at that point.  

Ah... here we go... Dontrelle Willis had 13 starts and 82.1 innings at the '03 All Star break.  Means will almost certainly pass that mark in the next couple weeks.

[Aglets]

It's interesting to me that Means is tied for 5th in the AL for WAR (at 3.1) among pitchers, despite having fewer innings than anyone else in the top EIGHTEEN players.  Wonder how much he would project to have if he was closer to the average innings load.   If I do a rough ratio and pretend he had 95 IP.........then he would be 2nd in the league only behind Minor.

Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.

[BohKnowsBmore]

11 hours ago, makoman said:

Abreu was a player selection though. Mancini has played 4 games or less against half the AL. Players on other teams have barely even seen him play, it helps to be a known quantity here. Abreu IS a known quantity and has defensible enough traditional stats with 19 HR and 60 RBIs. Are the other players going to seriously analyze stats and figure out who really deserves it, or are they going to say “Abreu? Yeah he’s been good, how’s he doing this year? 19 homers? Sounds good.”

That’s fine. That doesn’t mean the selection is free from analysis/criticism or someone on the OH thinking that Mancini may have been a better selection. 

[atomic]

40 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

There can't be too many All Star starting pitchers in all history who will go into the game with less than 100 MLB innings on their resume.  I wonder if there are any?  For most of baseball history, even pretty recently, if you were an All Star caliber starter you'd have over 100 innings (sometimes well over) halfway through your rookie season.

Looks like Mark Fidrych had 101.1 innings at the AS break his rookie year.  Fernando had 127.2 career innings at the '81 All Star game. Francisco Liriano had 112 innings by the '06 game and he was mostly a reliever at that point.  

Ah... here we go... Dontrelle Willis had 13 starts and 82.1 innings at the '03 All Star break.  Means will almost certainly pass that mark in the next couple weeks.

Fidrych and Fernando Venezuela were cultural phenomenons their rookie seasons.  Doubt too many people who aren't Orioles fans know who Means is.  Just an awful team with a requirement that every team gets a player that Means is an All Star.

[TonySoprano]

Congrats to John Means, the first Orioles starter selected since Mike Mussina in 1999.   Mussina was selected in his second season; Jim Palmer waited 5 years for the honor; Means is still a rookie

Tillman was added in 2013 to replace Verlander.

[DrungoHazewood]

37 minutes ago, Aglets said:

It's interesting to me that Means is tied for 5th in the AL for WAR (at 3.1) among pitchers, despite having fewer innings than anyone else in the top EIGHTEEN players.  Wonder how much he would project to have if he was closer to the average innings load.   If I do a rough ratio and pretend he had 95 IP.........then he would be 2nd in the league only behind Minor.

Pretty, pretty, pretty, pretty good.

Just remember WAR definitions: rWAR, which you're citing, goes by runs allowed.  It is close to the best case scenario for giving credit to a pitcher for the runs allowed while he is on the mound.  Fangraphs' flavor is the other side of that coin: it goes by FIP, and primarily credits a pitcher for his K/BB/HR contributions.  In that case Means has 1.7 WAR. 

I think splitting the difference is probably sensible.   That still makes him a 2.5 win pitcher, which is good.

I still fear the nearly 1.5 run gap between his ERA and FIP, and over two run gap between his ERA and xFIP.  79 innings and a huge ERA/FIP delta is a big red flag.  I think/hope he pitches to about a 4.00 ERA the rest of the year.

[BohKnowsBmore]

2 hours ago, ShaneDawg85 said:

We can debate Mancini vs. Means all day and night, but regardless congratulations to John Means.  Nobody, and I mean nobody could have seen that coming.  Speaking of not seeing that one coming, and for a bit of depressing reality (yeah more of that), John Means is the first Orioles starting pitcher drafted and developed by the team to be selected to the All Star game since Mike Mussina.  I don't count Chris Tillman since he came over in the Bedard trade.  That's bad enough on its own, but of all the starting pitching prospects to come up since Mussina left Means is probably the last one I'd have seen make the All Star team.

I only speak for myself, but to me this is not at all about Mancini vs. Means as that accepts the flawed premise that the Orioles can only have one rep in the ASG. I am both very happy for Means, thinking he's absolutely, and disappointed that Trey wasn't selected.

[BohKnowsBmore]

19 minutes ago, atomic said:

Fidrych and Fernando Venezuela were cultural phenomenons their rookie seasons.  Doubt too many people who aren't Orioles fans know who Means is.  Just an awful team with a requirement that every team gets a player that Means is an All Star.

Don't throw your back out with all of the contortions you are doing to negate Means and Mancini's performances this year...

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, atomic said:

Fidrych and Fernando Venezuela were cultural phenomenons their rookie seasons.  Doubt too many people who aren't Orioles fans know who Means is.  Just an awful team with a requirement that every team gets a player that Means is an All Star.

You mean like Marcus Stroman, Whit Merrifield, Shane Greene, Sandy Alcantara, Will Smith, Luis Castillo, etc, etc?

[TonySoprano]

42 minutes ago, atomic said:

Fidrych and Fernando Venezuela were cultural phenomenons their rookie seasons.  Doubt too many people who aren't Orioles fans know who Means is.  Just an awful team with a requirement that every team gets a player that Means is an All Star.

Means has an ERA+ of 183, which ranks him 3rd in the entire league behind only Mike Minor (209) and Charlie Morton (184).   His 3.1 rWAR ranks him 5th.

But you be you.

[Curse of the Bamdino]

I’m just fine with this. I’ll bet anything that Trey will have more chances to represent us at this game in years to come. I confess that I’m still a bit skeptical as to whether Means can keep it going, but by all means, let him reap the rewards of what’s been a promising first half.

The main takeaway for me is this, though - given the tough season this team has had thus far, that we can legitimately debate the All-Star merits of more than one of its players (and I might dare to include Cash in the discussion) is pretty darned remarkable.

[makoman]

6 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

Means has an ERA+ of 183, which ranks him 3rd in the entire league behind only Mike Minor (209) and Charlie Morton (184).   His 3.1 rWAR ranks him 5th.

But you be you.

Yeah, with Means you can quibble with things like innings pitched or FIP and whether he can sustain it, but he's really been one of the best pitchers in the league this year. It seems clear from his posts that atomic thinks the All Star game is all about "stars." So things like name recognition and prior year performance and cultural phenomenons matter. Cal with his 594 first half OPS in 2001 was probably fine, as it was basically a lifetime achievement award for a superstar. This is a defensible position I suppose, there aren't any official criteria and people can vote for whomever they want for whatever reason they want. But most people think it should be about rewarding 1st half performers, and as usual atomic thinks his position is the only valid one.

For me, I am happy for Means and think he deserves it. I think Mancini has had a fine year but can't say he was snubbed. Even if someone doesn't like Abreu one could argue for a couple others instead before Mancini. And you can't really complain that the worst team in the league doesn't have multiple All Stars.

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, Big Mac said:

But why blame the players when we can blame the Red Sox manager??

This is clearly a conspiracy by Alex Cora to suppress Mancini's trade value by denying him his rightful place as a 2019 All Star.

13 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

John Means beating Vlad for ROY could be an amazing trivia question a quarter century from now. 

Right? 100 years from now, nobody will have heard of Vlad, Jr., but children's story books will have been written about how MLB renamed the Cy Young Award to be the John Means award.

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Just remember WAR definitions: rWAR, which you're citing, goes by runs allowed.  It is close to the best case scenario for giving credit to a pitcher for the runs allowed while he is on the mound.  Fangraphs' flavor is the other side of that coin: it goes by FIP, and primarily credits a pitcher for his K/BB/HR contributions.  In that case Means has 1.7 WAR. 

Another way of saying this is rWAR fits reality better whereas fWAR attempts to predict reality. I'll take the 3.1 actual WAR all day and twice on Sunday.