2019 Trade Deadline

[25 Nuggets]

On 7/3/2019 at 8:30 AM, Moose Milligan said:

For those who are thinking that we're going to be massive sellers here at the deadline, I think you're in for a disappointment.

It's been asked here before, but who on this team would be a starter on a playoff contender?  Mancini probably, but is there a market for someone who's got average, at best, defense in a corner outfield spot?  

Another way to look at it, if you're a GM of a team looking to add pieces to the stretch drive, who on the Orioles would you absolutely HAVE to have?  Who on this team would make a difference for you?  And what would you be willing to give up to get them?

Possibly Mancini.  MAYBE Cashner.  Maybe Bundy.  Possibly Givens but he's had a borderline terrible year.

And if you're looking at the Orioles roster are they the first team you gotta call to inquire about their talent?  Are you beating down Mike Elias' door to strike a deal for Dylan "There it goes!" Bundy? 

The wildcard (no pun intended) here is that we haven't seen how Elias approaches a trade deadline as a GM.  What we saw last year was a big fat turd of a return for assets that were way better and more intriguing than anything we have now.  Out of all that dealing last year Dean Kremer looks like he could be a guy.  Diaz is in Bowie but with the way he's performed this year it's only a matter of time before someone passes him on the prospect list.

So that was DD going out in a blaze of glory in his final months as a GM.  Elias is most likely different but Elias certainly doesn't have the assets this year that DD had last year. 

When you take all of this into consideration, I think we'll be getting organizational filler and indestinguishable AAAA Hess, Yefry, Ynoa, and Rogers types in return.  Trim some payroll, get some guys that can ride out the rest of the season.  

Milligan's take:  Be happy with Rutschman, Henderson, what looks to be a nice draft class and yesterday's J2 signees and call it a day.  If we do make trades chances of us getting prospects that we'd be happy about are slim to none. 

Milligan with the /thread post on page one.  Dammit!

look I am not expecting much at the trade deadline... but that day is the third day of the season that I am excited about (the first being the amateur draft, the second being day one of international signings).  The games themselves I still listen to but it's more about which young players have promise.

Cashner is the one guy that will bring something of value back IMO.  I have a feeling the team doesn't move Mancini, at least not yet.  Cashner is having a very good season on a horrible team and starting pitching is the most valuable asset in the sport.  I would be surprised if they don't move him, considering he only has a team option year left on his contract.

Other than that, it's about digging deep and trying to find diamonds in the rough -- cause that's what the Orioles are getting back, rough.

[BohKnowsBmore]

53 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

By this thinking Cashner is better than Sale and Tanaka. 

To clarify, the qualifier caveat only applied to the MLB-wide rankings, not where he would slot on the contenders that I listed (that was done qualifier-agnostic, other than comparing to the top-pitchers by IP on the given teams).

[Can_of_corn]

35 minutes ago, 25 Nuggets said:

Milligan with the /thread post on page one.  Dammit!

look I am not expecting much at the trade deadline... but that day is the third day of the season that I am excited about (the first being the amateur draft, the second being day one of international signings).  The games themselves I still listen to but it's more about which young players have promise.

Cashner is the one guy that will bring something of value back IMO.  I have a feeling the team doesn't move Mancini, at least not yet.  Cashner is having a very good season on a horrible team and starting pitching is the most valuable asset in the sport.  I would be surprised if they don't move him, considering he only has a team option year left on his contract.

Other than that, it's about digging deep and trying to find diamonds in the rough -- cause that's what the Orioles are getting back, rough.

Eh.

It kinda depends in my opinion.

If you have a team that is pretty much assured to be making the post season is someone like Cashner more valuable than a shutdown bullpen arm?  Not sure how many of those are going to be on the market but they are generally highly coveted.

[BohKnowsBmore]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

 

Cashner is currently #35 among MLB qualifiers in ERA; #32 in ERA-; #30 in WHIP.  He's 8th in the AL in pitcher rWAR.  He's pitching like a #3 on a good team and he's doing it in the AL east.  As a brief exercise, I am going to go through the current playoff teams and mark where he would rank in IP, ERA and WHIP among each team's top-5 pitchers (by IP).

AL:

Yankees - #2 IP; #2 ERA; #3 WHIP
Twins - 2; 3; 4
Astros - 4; 4; 5
Rays - 3; 4; 4
Indians - 3; 3; 4

NL:

Braves - 3; 3; 2
Cubs - 4; 4; 2
Dodgers - 4; 6; 6
Phillies - 4; 3; 1
Nats - 4; 6; 4

While there are definitely some pitching rich teams that wouldn't be interested (Astros, Dodgers), there are definitely some contending teams where he could very well improve the production of their #3 slot right now (Phillies, Yankees, Twins, Braves). I think he works perfectly for a team like Philly who will be in a fight for the playoffs all year long and needs all they can get from their #4 and #5, but he could also be their best option at #3 come playoff time.

 

Adding the "next 4" in each league (again, it's IP; ERA; WHIP):

AL:

Boston - 4; 2; 3
Oakland - 3; 2; 3
Texas - 3; 3; 2
Anaheim* - 1; 1; 2

NL:

Milwaukee - 3; 4; 2T
Arizona - 4; 4; 3
San Diego - 1; 2; 3
St. Louis - 3; 2; 1

Probably unsurprising that he looks even better here.  Again, this is based on top-5 starters and where he would slot among the six (the five, then himself).

* Tyler Skaggs removed

[Roll Tide]

On 7/3/2019 at 8:30 AM, Moose Milligan said:

For those who are thinking that we're going to be massive sellers here at the deadline, I think you're in for a disappointment.

It's been asked here before, but who on this team would be a starter on a playoff contender?  Mancini probably, but is there a market for someone who's got average, at best, defense in a corner outfield spot?  

Another way to look at it, if you're a GM of a team looking to add pieces to the stretch drive, who on the Orioles would you absolutely HAVE to have?  Who on this team would make a difference for you?  And what would you be willing to give up to get them?

Possibly Mancini.  MAYBE Cashner.  Maybe Bundy.  Possibly Givens but he's had a borderline terrible year.

And if you're looking at the Orioles roster are they the first team you gotta call to inquire about their talent?  Are you beating down Mike Elias' door to strike a deal for Dylan "There it goes!" Bundy? 

The wildcard (no pun intended) here is that we haven't seen how Elias approaches a trade deadline as a GM.  What we saw last year was a big fat turd of a return for assets that were way better and more intriguing than anything we have now.  Out of all that dealing last year Dean Kremer looks like he could be a guy.  Diaz is in Bowie but with the way he's performed this year it's only a matter of time before someone passes him on the prospect list.

So that was DD going out in a blaze of glory in his final months as a GM.  Elias is most likely different but Elias certainly doesn't have the assets this year that DD had last year. 

When you take all of this into consideration, I think we'll be getting organizational filler and indestinguishable AAAA Hess, Yefry, Ynoa, and Rogers types in return.  Trim some payroll, get some guys that can ride out the rest of the season.  

Milligan's take:  Be happy with Rutschman, Henderson, what looks to be a nice draft class and yesterday's J2 signees and call it a day.  If we do make trades chances of us getting prospects that we'd be happy about are slim to none. 

 

 

I dont think trading Cashner and possibly Villar and/or Mancini would make us massive sellers. If I had to place odds I would say the over/under is 2 deals.

[25 Nuggets]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Eh.

It kinda depends in my opinion.

If you have a team that is pretty much assured to be making the post season is someone like Cashner more valuable than a shutdown bullpen arm?  Not sure how many of those are going to be on the market but they are generally highly coveted.

We're seeing the number of viable starting pitchers in MLB drop - alongside this, the amount of bullpen innings are going up to the point that for the first time in a long while, the bullpen ERA of MLB is higher than the starting ERA.  Wins above average, SP across MLB is at 1.2 and therefore RP is at -1.2.  This is a trend favoring SP from previous seasons, particularly 2017 on back.

Sure, a shutdown bullpen arm would be more valuable than Cashner; but neither are we talking about Kershaw or Verlander here.  I think Cashner brings back something of note if he is traded.

[sportsfan8703]

SP trade candidates,

Bumgarner - NTC to Boston, Rental

Stroman - Not a rental

Matt Boyd - will cost a ton

Andrew Cashner - Rental owed $4 million

Tanner Roark - Rental, owed $5 million

Lyles, Duffy, Jeff Samardzija, Leake

Maybe Cashner is being undervalued  

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

SP trade candidates,

Bumgarner - NTC to Boston, Rental

Stroman - Not a rental

Matt Boyd - will cost a ton

Andrew Cashner - Rental owed $4 million

Tanner Roark - Rental, owed $5 million

Lyles, Duffy, Jeff Samardzija, Leake

Maybe Cashner is being undervalued  

 

 

I think I it was Wildcard.that broke down now much Cashner is owed, it's a lot more than 4M.

[sportsfan8703]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think I it was Wildcard.that broke down now much Cashner is owed, it's a lot more than 4M.

I know he has incentives for IP. He’s still looking like financially the “cheapest” except for Lyles. 

Edited July 9, 2019 by sportsfan8703

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I know he has incentives for IP. He’s still looking like financially the “cheapest” except for Lyles. 

It was stated that his signing bonus is still owed.  /shrug

[Roll Tide]

Quote

Andrew Cashner's first year with the Baltimore Orioles in 2018 ended with a 5.29 ERA. So far, he's improved to a 4.14 ERA in his second.

The 32-year-old's overall line is skewed by a stinkbomb against the New York Yankees on Opening Day. He's put up a 3.40 ERA over 50.1 innings since then. He's reintroduced his four-seam fastball, and his velocity has ticked up significantly.

Between his performance and his not-unreasonable $9.5 million salary, the Orioles have a solid trade chip in Cashner. They might duplicate the 2018 trade of Gio Gonzalez, which netted the Washington Nationals one of the Milwaukee Brewers' top 30 prospects, plus a throw-in.

The Los Angeles Angels, whose rotation has an ugly 5.86 ERA, could be game for such a deal. The O's might gladly accept a two-player package headlined by righty Jake Jewell. He's the Angels' No. 25 prospect, but he's already 26 and is seemingly in need of a change of scenery.

The Deal: Angels get RHP Andrew Cashner, Orioles get RHP Jake Jewell and a throw-in

I'd prefer Jeremy Beasley and a throw in. 

 

 

[Roll Tide]

Quote

Righty reliever Mychal Givens is also in the Orioles' bag of trade chips, but his trade value is complicated.

On one hand, he's following a 3.99 ERA in 2018 with a 4.91 ERA in 2019. On another, he was dominating before he ran afoul of the Yankees (Cashner can relate) this week. On still another hand, he's making only $2.2 million and won't become a free agent until 2022.

There's a similarity between where Givens, 29, is now and where Keone Kela was last summer. The Orioles hope so, anyway, as the Texas Rangers cashed in two-and-a-half seasons of Kela for a two-player package headlined by left-hander Taylor Hearn, who was then the Pittsburgh Pirates' No. 7 prospect.

Rather than sacrifice a big chunk of their prospect depth for a more established ace reliever, the Atlanta Braves might prefer an opportunistic play for Givens. They could afford to part with 21-year-old lefty Kyle Muller, their No. 12 prospect, who is inconsequential relative to their other young arms.

Like in the Kela trade, a player to be named later could complete the trade.

The Deal: Braves get RHP Mychal Givens, Orioles get LHP Kyle Muller and a PTBNL

I like Muller a lot and would try to get them to throw in Jeremy Walker who looks like a possible bullpen arm.

[Roll Tide]

Quote

Andrew Cashner has enjoyed a bounce-back season in 2019. He currently has an ERA of 4.55 with a record of 5-2 in 11 starts. Though Cashner made it clear he prefers not to be moved if the O’s find the right fit for him he’d be a great addition to a contender’s starting rotation while also reeling in a decent return for the Orioles.

Jonathan Villar is a player who could help all 30 major league teams. He can play multiple defensive positions effectively, hit for power, steal bases and get on base at a clip above .300. He is only 28 years old and is in the final year of his deal thus; he’d serve as the perfect rental for a contender who’d likely be willing to part ways with some solid prospects to get him.

Finally, there’s no player on the Orioles roster who’d bring back more value than Trey Mancini. Mancini is coasting to his first carer all-star appearance as he’s batting .305 with 10 home runs while serving as a leader in the Baltimore clubhouse. Mancini is just 27 and is signed through 2023.

Thus, he’d be providing a team with four seasons in the prime of his carer at an affordable price. The O’s must pounce and try to get three of an organization’s top 30 prospects in return for the versatile slugger.

 

[Roll Tide]

Quote

These two players may not bring back a haul of multiple ranked prospects but could still bring a solid return to the Baltimore Orioles.

Bring Back Solid Prospects: Dylan Bundy & Mychal Givens

Once a top prospect, Dylan Bundy has never become the ace that the organization was hoping he’d be. However, he’s had a decent 2019 campaign pitching to an ERA of 4.67 which could lead a team to part way with a mid-level prospect or two to take a chance on Bundy reaching his full potential.

Mychal Givens was having a great season until hitting a wall the last week. Thus, his ERA that is above five, doesn’t tell the full story. Now pulled from the pressure of the closer’s role Givens can go back to focusing on simply getting batters out. If he does his job well, the 29-year-old could become a decent trade chip due to his experience pitching in the late innings which almost every contending team is looking for more of come summer time.

 

[ReclaimTheCrown]

48 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

 

These are interesting takes and I know a lot of folks appreciate you posting them....but dude, where are they coming from? There’s no source or attribution or anything, so we’ve got no clue whose opinions they are. Are they some random fan writer? A reputable national baseball guy? Some local sports writer? We have no way of knowing, and it impacts everyone’s ability to evaluate what’s written. 

Not trying to come across as a jerk, and certainly no one has appointed me board police, but please in the future include some info on the origin of the takes you quote. I know I’ve mentioned it before. Thanks!