MLBTR: Orioles Outlook

[weams]

10 minutes ago, markeubanks said:

Can’t agree with this enough. Not sure why so many are eager to slash payroll to nothing. It’s a multi-million-dollar company owned by very, very wealthy people.

Their analytics/development/etc investments don’t cost THAT much. If someone is rooting for an entertainment-based company that they have no ownership in to make a profit, while it is providing incredibly poor entertainment to its other customers - that just makes them a fool.

What would you spend the Angelos money on for 2020? Asking for a fool.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, markeubanks said:

Can’t agree with this enough. Not sure why so many are eager to slash payroll to nothing. It’s a multi-million-dollar company owned by very, very wealthy people.

Their analytics/development/etc investments don’t cost THAT much. If someone is rooting for an entertainment-based company that they have no ownership in to make a profit, while it is providing incredibly poor entertainment to its other customers - that just makes them a fool.

I think folks, maybe foolish folks, are confusing folks expecting the team to further cut payroll with folks hoping they further cut payroll. 

[weams]

11 minutes ago, markeubanks said:

Can’t agree with this enough. Not sure why so many are eager to slash payroll to nothing. It’s a multi-million-dollar company owned by very, very wealthy people.

Their analytics/development/etc investments don’t cost THAT much. If someone is rooting for an entertainment-based company that they have no ownership in to make a profit, while it is providing incredibly poor entertainment to its other customers - that just makes them a fool.

You do realize that this fool believes with all his heart that the Orioles need to have a bottom five finish for draft and international slot purposed for the 2020 Season. 

[Tx Oriole]

On 10/26/2019 at 8:14 AM, Il BuonO said:

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

 

On 10/26/2019 at 8:14 AM, Il BuonO said:

If 2019 was mostly about landing Rutschman and overhauling the organizational structure to suit Elias’s vision, then how about 2020? Well, the club will be picking second in the coming draft and can surely look ahead to another lofty pick in 2021. But now’s also the time for the new front office to make shrewd assessments of its own sub-elite prospects, identify some diamonds in the rough, and perform the kinds of subtle roster tweaks that can make a big difference down the line.

I agree. But can they??

[foxfield]

On 10/26/2019 at 2:04 PM, weams said:

DO you believe in the myth that many car mechanics could have played in the majors with the right breaks or support networks? I don't.

This is a very interesting question.  The answer?  No not many.  But I do believe there are some.  I think the outcome and minor miracle of a Jose Altuve is proof of that opinion.  Do you believe that there are never players who have Altuve's drive and talent, but who land in the wrong spot at the wrong time and therefore never make it?  I do!

[weams]

1 hour ago, foxfield said:

This is a very interesting question.  The answer?  No not many.  But I do believe there are some.  I think the outcome and minor miracle of a Jose Altuve is proof of that opinion.  Do you believe that there are never players who have Altuve's drive and talent, but who land in the wrong spot at the wrong time and therefore never make it?  I do!

I am sure a few never got their shot. But there are enough opportunities for someone who really has it that I suspect we got most of them. 

[theocean]

3 hours ago, weams said:

You do realize that this fool believes with all his heart that the Orioles need to have a bottom five finish for draft and international slot purposed for the 2020 Season. 

That probably happens whether they tender or non-tender Villar. 

[sportsfan8703]

10 hours ago, weams said:

What would you spend the Angelos money on for 2020? Asking for a fool.

It doesn’t make much sense to spend money on players that won’t be here in 2022 and beyond. It does make sense to spend all our allotted money for the draft and international signings. Which we’ve done that with the draft to ownership’s credit. 

Elias hasn’t really rocked the boat yet. I think we see some boat rocking this offseason. Might not be a sell off of everything, but I think we see some trades. 

[Frobby]

19 hours ago, crawjo said:

This is what I don't get...fans almost taking the side of ownership on payroll. We are talking about maybe a $10 million player. That's not such a huge salary hit that it justifies removing 4 WAR from a team that lost 108 games this year. 

 

13 hours ago, markeubanks said:

Can’t agree with this enough. Not sure why so many are eager to slash payroll to nothing. It’s a multi-million-dollar company owned by very, very wealthy people.

Their analytics/development/etc investments don’t cost THAT much. If someone is rooting for an entertainment-based company that they have no ownership in to make a profit, while it is providing incredibly poor entertainment to its other customers - that just makes them a fool.

I feel like some people ignore the fact that if you spend $10 mm less in 2020, that’s $10 mm more you have to spend at a time when it might actually make a difference.   Sure, I have no interest in seeing the team make a bunch of profit and stuff it in the owners’ pockets. But I have a lot of interest in seeing the team have some cash on hand the next time they’re a contender and need to make a key addition.    
 

Just look at the Astros.   The highest payroll they ever had up through 2016 was $105 mm (in 2009).    Now they’ve averaged $165 mm the last three years.    Has it occurred to anyone that part of the reason they’re able to afford that is  because they only spent $87 mm total on payroll in 2012-14?     

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I feel like some people ignore the fact that if you spend $10 mm less in 2020, that’s $10 mm more you have to spend at a time when it might actually make a difference.   Sure, I have no interest in seeing the team make a bunch of profit and stuff it in the owners’ pockets. But I have a lot of interest in seeing the team have some cash on hand the next time they’re a contender and need to make a key addition.    
 

Just look at the Astros.   The highest payroll they ever had up through 2016 was $105 mm (in 2009).    Now they’ve averaged $165 mm the last three years.    Has it occurred to anyone that part of the reason they’re able to afford that is  because they only spent $87 mm total on payroll in 2012-14?     

I don't know how much the Astros low budgets in the early year of the rebuild have to do with their current spending.   Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country.   They drew the 9th most attendance this year.  That gives them the ability to spend.

I think your point is valid for Baltimore which is the 21st largest metro area.

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't know how much the Astros low budgets in the early year of the rebuild have to do with their current spending.   Houston is the 5th largest metro area in the country.   They drew the 9th most attendance this year.  That gives them the ability to spend.

I think your point is valid for Baltimore which is the 21st largest metro area.

Fair enough.   It will be interesting to see what happens with the Astros’ payroll in the next couple of years if they are able to sustain their success on the field.    I think you’re right that this is probably a bigger issue for the Orioles than for the Astros.   

[7Mo]

3 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Elias hasn’t really rocked the boat yet. I think we see some boat rocking this offseason. Might not be a sell off of everything, but I think we see some trades. 

I agree and some of the boat rocking might not make sense from a production standpoint.

One of the points of emphasis is getting full buy in from everyone with the analytics and development programs. It seems possible to me that we might see a trade or 2 of someone who has been mildly productive but isn't fully bought in to the new systems. 

[theocean]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

 

I feel like some people ignore the fact that if you spend $10 mm less in 2020, that’s $10 mm more you have to spend at a time when it might actually make a difference.   Sure, I have no interest in seeing the team make a bunch of profit and stuff it in the owners’ pockets. But I have a lot of interest in seeing the team have some cash on hand the next time they’re a contender and need to make a key addition.    
 

Just look at the Astros.   The highest payroll they ever had up through 2016 was $105 mm (in 2009).    Now they’ve averaged $165 mm the last three years.    Has it occurred to anyone that part of the reason they’re able to afford that is  because they only spent $87 mm total on payroll in 2012-14?     

I think this is a very naive outlook to think that money saved in one year is being used in another. The Astros have the 5th largest metro area in the country. They should be able to easily have a $165M payroll without having to save money to do it.

Saved money isn't going into a piggybank to use in the future. While MLB is a non-profit, the teams themselves aren't. They're going to have to pay taxes on any profit they make. So, they're going to do something with that money so they can minimize that tax burden.

[wildbillhiccup]

26 minutes ago, theocean said:

I think this is a very naive outlook to think that money saved in one year is being used in another. The Astros have the 5th largest metro area in the country. They should be able to easily have a $165M payroll without having to save money to do it.

Saved money isn't going into a piggybank to use in the future. While MLB is a non-profit, the teams themselves aren't. They're going to have to pay taxes on any profit they make. So, they're going to do something with that money so they can minimize that tax burden.

I agree with this. That $10M is going straight in the family's pockets (never to be seen again). That said, I'm not a big advocate of spending during a seemingly lost season, but I think I think there is some level of expectation for the Orioles to field at least the semblance of a MLB starting rotation. I'm not sure that's possible with our current internal options. I'm not saying they should pursue someone like Cole or Ryu, but they might need to look at signing a Brett Anderson/Marco Estrada/Clayton Richard type to a one year deal just to bridge the gap. I'd also be fine if they addressed this problem via trade, but either flipping Mancini or Villar (if they keep him) for a young MLB ready pitching prospect. 

[OsEatAlEast]

On 10/26/2019 at 2:04 PM, weams said:

DO you believe in the myth that many car mechanics could have played in the majors with the right breaks or support networks? I don't.

I think what UpstateNYfan was saying is he would rather the O's take the smaller/older player that is already good over the projectionable bigger/younger guy.

Edited October 28, 2019 by OsEatAlEast