How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?

[wildcard]

And how do they do when they are promoted to the majors?

I  think these are two key questions going forward.    If Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Baumann Wells and/or Zimmerman  or some portion there of are promoted in July  instead of September its a different scenario for next season.    Akin could be promoted as early as May because he has spent a year at AAA already.  Its really depends on what he shows  O's management  in terms of development.  The other 5 could be as soon as July or as late a September if they pitch well.   

The lineup the O's could field looks pretty offensive.  The addition of Hays and Mountcastle is big for the offense along with if Villar stays.

 

Villar SS,  111 runs scored,  24 HR, 33 doubles and 40 steals

Hays CF,  Possible .280 hitter with 20 HR power

Mancini 1B/LF,  900 OPS

Mountcastle LF/1B,    300 hitter with power.   Pretty much the duplicate of Mancini's production in his rookie year.

 Nunez DH,  30 HR, 90 RBI  

 Santander RF,   20 HR in 380  at bats,  808 OPS with RISP

 Alberto 2B,  300 hitter who probably will not hit as well as he did vs lefties but his minor league numbers say he should improve vs righties.

 Wilkerson 3B/Utility vs righties,   783 OPS vs righties

Severino  C,  812 OPs vs lefties

Sisco   C,  772 OPS vs righties

Williams 4th OF,   can backup all three OF positions and had a 848 OPS at AAA

 Davis, defensive backup at 1B

Stewart  COF,  had a 944 OPS at AAA, has options

Ruiz  3B,   766 OPS in the 2nd half, has option

That looks like a pretty good offense.  Maybe league average or above.

 

So its the pitching that  holds O's back (no big surprise)

Pen

Harvey, Closer,   ERA of 2.00 or lower

Bleier,  Setup, now healthy repeats 2017.   ERA of 2.00 for 63 IP.

Givens, Setup, limited to one inning and in the 7th or 8th.  Never the 9th. Repeats 2017.  2.75 ERA, 78 IP

Castro, Middle relief,  ERA of under 4.00,  70 IP

Carroll,   Middle to late relief,   Has a 2.72 ERA in 46 IP at AAA

Tanner Scott,  Used situationally when two lefties are coming up in an inning,  .188 avg vs lefties in 2019,  used for 3 batters. 

Brooks had a  2.89 ERA in 28 IP as a reliever in 2019.  If he doesn't start

One or two  6 year minor leaguers in mid to long relief.  

Starters

Means, 12-11, 27 starts, 3.60 ERA should add to his 155 IP

Bundy, an optimistic approach would say he can repeat 2017.   13-9,  4.24 ERA,    170 IP

Cobb,  An optimistic approach would say he can repeat 2017, 12-10 3.66 ERA, 180 IP

The 4th and 5th starters are some combination of Wojo, Brooks and three 6 year minor leaguers that are acquired this off season.

This is why Akin in May is important and how soon some the rest of the AAA pitchers are promoted makes a difference.

 

So what Elias needs to add in this scenario is 4, 6 year minor league starter/long relievers or waiver claims.  Hoping the two will actually be productive until the O's AAA pitchers are ready for promotion.    These 6 year minor league pitchers are just added to fill the gap until the O's AAA pitchers are ready for promotion. And an infielder that can hit left-handed pitching and play 3B/SS.  

Doesn't  sound like a lot to ask for.

[ChosenOne21]

Your scenario assumes literally everything goes right for this team. That's a lot to ask for

[Aglets]

9 minutes ago, ChosenOne21 said:

Your scenario assumes literally everything goes right for this team. That's a lot to ask for

hi have you met wildcard?   

The board needs him probably to help level out the rest of us.

[Frobby]

The Orioles finished 11th in the AL in runs/game.    They were 8th in the second half, 9th in September. I think you’d have to squint pretty hard to see them being an average offensive team in 2020, though it’s not impossible.

As to the young starters, I think the promotions will be mostly performance driven.   I do not expect any of them to be in the OD rotation.    I’d expect Akin to be promoted first, any time between late April and the end of June.    I think we’ll see Zimmermann and Kremer later.    But, it all depends on who’s healthy and how they perform.   No point in doing mental gymnastics to try to figure it out now.    

[mdbdotcom]

I'd rather have the prospects that Villar and Mancini will return than those players themselves. I also don' t thin the O's are interested in putting the best team possible on the field in 2020.

As Elias has said on numerous occasions, next year is not about wins and losses. And as he explained when he was hired, his goal is not necessarily to get back to contention as quickly as possible, but to develop a pipeline of players that will continuously feed the major league team for years to come. We aren't there yet.

So, as you put it, "what Elias needs to do" is keep players in the minors until there is nothing more for them to gain from being there. What happens at the major league level is of tangential interest- he doesn't want them to stink the place out while they lose 100 games. If he can find a young, undervalued ML player at minimum, he'll be glad to give him an opportunity to prove himself.

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The Orioles finished 11th in the AL in runs/game.    They were 8th in the second half, 9th in September. I think you’d have to squint pretty hard to see them being an average offensive team in 2020, though it’s not impossible.

As to the young starters, I think the promotions will be mostly performance driven.   I do not expect any of them to be in the OD rotation.    I’d expect Akin to be promoted first, any time between late April and the end of June.    I think we’ll see Zimmermann and Kremer later.    But, it all depends on who’s healthy and how they perform.   No point in doing mental gymnastics to try to figure it out now.    

 

33 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd rather have the prospects that Villar and Mancini will return than those players themselves. I also don' t thin the O's are interested in putting the best team possible on the field in 2020.

As Elias has said on numerous occasions, next year is not about wins and losses. And as he explained when he was hired, his goal is not necessarily to get back to contention as quickly as possible, but to develop a pipeline of players that will continuously feed the major league team for years to come. We aren't there yet.

So, as you put it, "what Elias needs to do" is keep players in the minors until there is nothing more for them to gain from being there. What happens at the major league level is of tangential interest- he doesn't want them to stink the place out while they lose 100 games. If he can find a young, undervalued ML player at minimum, he'll be glad to give him an opportunity to prove himself.

So if he O's were 8th in the AL in runs in the 2nd half and they add Hays and Mountcastle they should probably be higher than 7th which average.    Just saying'.

[mdbdotcom]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

So if he O's were 8th in the AL in runs in the 2nd half and they add Hays and Mountcastle they should probably be higher than 7th which average.    Just saying'.

Even without Villar and Mancini? That would be impressive.

[wildcard]

37 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

I'd rather have the prospects that Villar and Mancini will return than those players themselves. I also don' t thin the O's are interested in putting the best team possible on the field in 2020.

As Elias has said on numerous occasions, next year is not about wins and losses. And as he explained when he was hired, his goal is not necessarily to get back to contention as quickly as possible, but to develop a pipeline of players that will continuously feed the major league team for years to come. We aren't there yet.

So, as you put it, "what Elias needs to do" is keep players in the minors until there is nothing more for them to gain from being there. What happens at the major league level is of tangential interest- he doesn't want them to stink the place out while they lose 100 games. If he can find a young, undervalued ML player at minimum, he'll be glad to give him an opportunity to prove himself.

On Villar and Mancini,  it all depends on the offers.  But I don't think Elias is going to give them away just to get rid of their salary.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

On Villar and Mancini,  it all depends on the offers.  But I don't think Elias is going to give them away just to get rid of their salary.

He's going to "give them away" for prospects.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Even without Villar and Mancini? That would be impressive.

Of course the offense will not be as good without them.   At least next season.   Watching what happens to those two will be interesting this winter.    I would not play a bet on whether they get traded or not.  Could go either way.

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

He's going to "give them away" for prospects.

They better me good prospects and lots of them.

[mdbdotcom]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

They better me good prospect and lots of them.

Or he'll have to answer to you? I'm sure they will be the most he can get.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, mdbdotcom said:

Or he'll have to answer to you? I'm sure they will be the most he can get.

I am not sure they are leaving.   Especially Mancini.   

I think one of Mancini, Nunez or Mountcastle is traded after the 2020 season to make Diaz.     Which one will depend on their production this season IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

I am not sure they are leaving.   Especially Mancini.   

I think one of Mancini, Nunez or Mountcastle is traded after the 2020 season to make Diaz.     Which one will depend on their production this season IMO.

If Mountcastle plays well enough in 2020 to have trade value why would any team trade him over Mancini?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If Mountcastle plays well enough in 2020 to have trade value why would any team trade him over Mancini?

Its the If.    If Mountcastle is a good hitter but is only a DH the O's may trade him or Nunez next off season.