How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Of course it would have.   You’d rather have potential control of a player for 2.3 years than 1.3, when you always have the option of cutting him loose at the end of any season with no penalty.    The fact that Schoop sucked for two months on the Brewers and they ended up cutting him doesn’t change that.    

The Brewers might simply have not been willing to pay a higher price and no other team appeared interested.  In which case Schoop would have either stayed an Oriole or gone to the Brewers for the same return.

Schoop isn't worth more if no one is willing to pay more.  Ultimately the market decides.

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Brewers might simply have not been willing to pay a higher price and no other team appeared interested.  In which case Schoop would have either stayed an Oriole or gone to the Brewers for the same return.

Schoop isn't worth more if no one is willing to pay more.  Ultimately the market decides.

Of course the market decides, but to me it’s quite likely that the market would have valued Schoop more highly if he was under control for another year.    And we really don’t know if other teams had interest in Schoop in July 2018 or not.    

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

Of course the market decides, but to me it’s quite likely that the market would have valued Schoop more highly if he was under control for another year.    And we really don’t know if other teams had interest in Schoop in July 2018 or not.    

Yea, that would be why I said appeared.

It is possible that he would have brought back more, but it is also possible he would not have.  The extra year of control might have priced him out of the market and the O's would have had to wait until the offseason to attempt to move him.

[PaulFolk]

20 hours ago, wildcard said:

Full season of Hays CF

Full season of Alberto 2B

Full season of Santander RF

Full season on Mancini 1B

That is improvement at 4 of 8 defensive spots.  That should get the O's to average.

That isn't how it works. You don't automatically upgrade from the worst defensive team in the majors to an average defense just by marginally improving four positions. If they'd been only slightly below average in 2019, maybe I could buy it. But they were way, way worse than that, and they have a much further way to go.

I also don't agree with the premise that all these guys are upgrades. Mancini has had a negative DRS at first base in each season of his career. Hays might be more of a corner guy. Santander is unproven. And I don't think Hanser Alberto will be the everyday second baseman, considering his .609 OPS against right-handers last year, so he might end up platooning with someone who's not a particularly good fielder.

[Hallas]

26 minutes ago, PaulFolk said:

That isn't how it works. You don't automatically upgrade from the worst defensive team in the majors to an average defense just by marginally improving four positions. If they'd been only slightly below average in 2019, maybe I could buy it. But they were way, way worse than that, and they have a much further way to go.

I also don't agree with the premise that all these guys are upgrades. Mancini has had a negative DRS at first base in each season of his career. Hays might be more of a corner guy. Santander is unproven. And I don't think Hanser Alberto will be the everyday second baseman, considering his .609 OPS against right-handers last year, so he might end up platooning with someone who's not a particularly good fielder.

4 positions is half the fielding positions, so I can see where he's coming from.

CF: 2018 -5.1 UZR. Hays played at a +9.9 UZR/150, but over a small sample, so lets split the difference and call him a +5 player.  That's about 10 runs.

2B: 2018 -1.7 UZR.  Alberto played at a +14.5 UZR/150, but we'll split the difference again and call him a +7 player.  That's about 9 runs.

RF: 2018 -10.5 UZR.  Santander was at +0.9 UZR/150, but his UZR in right field was actually negative, which confuses me.  I'm going to just . call him average.  Thats 10.5 runs.

1B: 2018 +1.7 UZR.  Mancini was at +6.5, so splitting the difference we'll project him at +3.2.  Only 1.5 runs.

So just from marginal upgrades from these 4 positions we've gained 32 runs by UZR, which actually gets us above average assuming no regession anywhere else.

Now, whether you buy UZR's ratings, or whether you buy these defensive projections is a whole different story.  There's also the question of whether these players will hit enough to be able to play defense.  Not really a guarantee for any of these players except for Mancini.

Also, minor point, but we weren't the worst defensive team by either Total Zone (we're actually above average in this one, which probably means we should discard that one immediately given that it horribly fails the eye test) BIS DRS, or UZR.  Other than TZ, they all have us in the bottom 5, but not the worst. 

[Frobby]

21 hours ago, PaulFolk said:

You do realize the Orioles were THE WORST defensive team in the majors in 2019 by Defensive Runs Saved (-105). How on earth does that team become average defensively with no changes other than adding Hays (and possibly shifting Mancini to first)?

First of all, where are you seeing -105?    On BB-ref, I’m seeing -89, 2nd worst to the Mets (-91).

Second, and also on BB-ref, I’m actually seeing the O’s as average defensively going by Rtot, at +6.

Fangraphs, on the other hand, has us third worst in UZR at -29.5 and 2nd worst in overall defense at -32.5.

I’m willing to accept that we were one of the worst defensive teams despite what Rtot says, but -105 (or -89) runs seems grossly exaggerated.    I’d be much more willing to believe the Fangraphs numbers.    

[PaulFolk]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

First of all, where are you seeing -105?    On BB-ref, I’m seeing -89, 2nd worst to the Mets (-91). 

This is according to FanGraphs: https://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=all&stats=fld&lg=all&qual=0&type=1&season=2019&month=0&season1=2019&ind=0&team=0,ts&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&startdate=2019-01-01&enddate=2019-12-31&sort=11,d

[sportsfan8703]

Not too concerned with the defense. I think it’s going to naturally get better as the prospects (hopefully) take over the position spots. Younger players tend to be better defenders. I’m more concerned with our SS/3B options for 2022+. We really don’t have too many options in the system right now. 

[waroriole]

So we’re a few breaks away from being in the World Series next year? Is that what I’m seeing?

[wildbillhiccup]

On 10/28/2019 at 7:41 PM, wildcard said:

In that case Hyde was giving Davis a lot of changes to play and Hyde felt at that moment that Davis was not hustling.  Davis took offense to being called out.   Mountcastle getting a lot of the playing time that was going to Davis will change that.  Davis will not get the chances.   Hyde and Elias will sit down and have atalk twith Davis about what to expect.   If Davis does not hit in ST he will have to accept that he is now a bench player and some one that has to wait until there is an injury.   I think Davis will be a good employee when that is laid out to him.

You have to appreciate the irony of the statement that Chris Davis "took offense". 

[Tx Oriole]

On 10/28/2019 at 2:15 PM, ChosenOne21 said:

Your scenario assumes literally everything goes right for this team. That's a lot to ask for

I think you are correct.

[MDtransplant757]

On 10/28/2019 at 6:59 PM, wildcard said:

I think McKenna begin the season at AA.   

It wouldn’t shock me if that happened either