How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?

[HowAboutThat]

10 hours ago, wildcard said:

And how do they do when they are promoted to the majors?

I  think this is two key questions going forward.    If Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Baumann Wells and/or Zimmerman  or some portion there of are promoted in July  instead of September its a different scenario for next season.    Akin could be promoted as early as May because he has spent a year at AAA already.  Its really depends on what he shows  O's management  in terms of development.  The other 5 could be as soon as July and as late a September if they pitch well.   

The lineup the O's could field looks pretty offensive.  The addition of Hays and Mountcastle is big for the offense along with if Villar stays.

 

Villar SS,  111 runs scored,  24 HR, 33 doubles and 40 steals

Hays CF,  Possible .280 hitter with 20 HR power

Mancini 1B/LF,  900 OPS

Mountcastle LF/1B,    300 hitter with power.   Pretty much the duplicate of Mancini's production in his rookie year.

 Nunez DH,  30 HR, 90 RBI  

 Santander RF,   20 HR in 380  at bats,  808 OPS with RISP

 Alberto 2B,  300 hitter who probably will not hit as well as he did vs lefties but his minor league numbers say he should improve vs righties.

 Wilkerson 3B/Utility vs righties,   783 OPS vs righties

Severino  C,  812 OPs vs lefties

Sisco   C,  772 OPS vs righties

Williams 4th OF,   can backup all three OF positions and had a 848 OPS at AAA

 Davis, defensive backup at 1B

Stewart  COF,  had a 944 OPS at AAA, has options

Ruiz  3B,   766 OPS in the 2nd half, has option

That looks like a pretty good offense.  Maybe league average or above.

 

So its the pitching that  holds O's back (no big surprise)

Pen

Harvey, Closer,   ERA if 2.00 or lower

Bleier,  Setup, now healthy repeats 2017.   ERA of 2.00 for 63 IP.

Givens, Setup, limited to one inning and in the 7th or 8th.  Never the 9th. Repeats 2017.  2.75 ERA, 78 IP

Castro, Middle relief,  ERA if under 4.00,  70 IP

Carroll,   Middle to late relief,   Has a 2.72 ERA in 46 IP at AAA

Tanner Scott,  Used situationally when two lefties are coming up in an inning,  .188 avg vs lefties in 2019,  used for 3 batters. 

Brooks had a  2.89 ERA in 28 IP as a reliever in 2019.  If he doesn't start

One or two  6 year minor leaguers in mid to long relief.  

Starters

Means, 12-11, 27 starts, 3.60 ERA should add to his 155 IP

Bundy, an optimistic approach would say he can repeat 2017.   13-9,  4.24 ERA,    170 IP

Cobb,  An optimistic approach would say he can repeat 2017, 12-10 3.66 ERA, 180 IP

The 4th and 5th starters are some combination of Wojo, Brooks and three 6 year minor leaguers that are acquired this off season.

This is why Akin in May is important and how soon some the rest of the AAA pitchers are promoted makes a difference.

 

So what Elias needs to add in this scenario is 4, 6 year minor league starter/long relievers or waiver claims.  Hoping the two will actually be productive until the O's AAA pitchers are ready for promotion.    These 6 year minor league pitchers are just added to fill the gap until the O's AAA pitchers are ready for promotion. And an infielder that can hit left-handed pitching and play 3B/SS.  

Doesn't  sound like a lot to ask for.

Haven’t read the comments yet but hello...defense?

[sportsfan8703]

4 hours ago, Philip said:

Haven’t read the comments yet but hello...defense?

We’ve lost 223 games the last two seasons. It’s going to be a bit before we see a lineup that can hit and defend. Gotta take what we can get. 

If the 2020 team were healthy, and had no roster issues hampering them, we could have an average to above average offense, but... we’ll be forced to carry Davis, service clock manipulation for Mountcastle, player(s) traded, etc....

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We’ve lost 223 games the last two seasons. It’s going to be a bit before we see a lineup that can hit and defend. Gotta take what we can get. 

If the 2020 team were healthy, and had no roster issues hampering them, we could have an average to above average offense, but... we’ll be forced to carry Davis, service clock manipulation for Mountcastle, player(s) traded, etc....

I don't think carrying Davis is a big problem.  I don't think delaying Mountcastle promotion to he majors  by a month is a big problem. 

But I agree that if Elias gets the right offer for Villar and others he will have to trade them.  That could impact the 2020 offense in a big way.   But Elias' focus is on 2022 and beyond.

The question is will Elias get the right offer(s)?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I don't think carrying Davis is a big problem.  I don't think delaying Mountcastle promotion to he majors  by a month is a big problem. 

But I agree that if Elias gets the right offer for Villar and others he will have to trade them.  That could impact the 2020 offense in a big way.   But Elias' focus is on 2022 and beyond.

The question is will Elias get the right offer(s)?

Of course you don't, you love the idea of manipulating service time.  You want to do it for pretty much everyone.

[mdbdotcom]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

The question is will Elias get the right offer(s)?

For some people, no offer will be considered "right," while for others any offer will be considered "right." The only question is whether or not Mancini, Villar and Bundy get dealt. Keeping all three would add $22+ million to payroll. That's not going to happen. Elias could trade one or two of them. I expect all three will be gone, no matter what anyone thinks of the trades, but concede that Bundy could be on the opening day roster, just to we don't lose 140 games.

[Il BuonO]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Of course you don't, you love the idea of manipulating service time.  You want to do it for pretty much everyone.

Is there anyone that should have it done?

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Il BuonO said:

Is there anyone that should have it done?

Sure, I was fine when they did it with Wieters for instance.  Maybe the top 3-4 position player prospects in a given season(if they won't sign a long term deal).

[Moose Milligan]

Safe bet that any thread wildcard starts that makes it to 8 pages has delved WAY off course.  Along the way touching hot 2019/2020 talking points such as Mountcastle, Davis and all sorts of trades.

In regards to the actual topic, I think one breaks camp (not going to predict who) and heads north with the team.  Any other prospects looked at as potential rotation pieces for the future will probably be up in mid-May or whatever that magical service clock date is.  Of course, provided they're pitching well.

I am pretty ambivalent about this crop, especially Akin.  I feel pretty good about Kremer.  IMO, it gets really interesting with Hall and Gray-Rod but those guys are probably two years away.  

[mdbdotcom]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Sure, I was fine when they did it with Wieters for instance.  Maybe the top 3-4 position player prospects in a given season(if they won't sign a long term deal).

That seems like a lot. I'd say any player who projects to be worth a helluva lot of money in six years. Anyone else should be replaceable with younger players. I'm not sure if we have any position player prospects that fit that description in the system.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, mdbdotcom said:

That seems like a lot. I'd say any player who projects to be worth a helluva lot of money in six years. Anyone else should be replaceable with younger players. I'm not sure if we have any position player prospects that fit that description in the system.

I would think that the top 3-4 position players would project to be worth a helluva lot in six years.

[DrungoHazewood]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I would think that the top 3-4 position players would project to be worth a helluva lot in six years.

Even if you just think Mountcastle is a two-win player over the next six, that's $96M in free agent terms.

[wildcard]

40 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Safe bet that any thread wildcard starts that makes it to 8 pages has delved WAY off course.  Along the way touching hot 2019/2020 talking points such as Mountcastle, Davis and all sorts of trades.

In regards to the actual topic, I think one breaks camp (not going to predict who) and heads north with the team.  Any other prospects looked at as potential rotation pieces for the future will probably be up in mid-May or whatever that magical service clock date is.  Of course, provided they're pitching well.

I am pretty ambivalent about this crop, especially Akin.  I feel pretty good about Kremer.  IMO, it gets really interesting with Hall and Gray-Rod but those guys are probably two years away.  

Its kind of a weird thing for me to say but you are more optimistic about the development and promotion of the young starters than I am.   I don't think any of them break camp with the O's, the only one I see has a chance to be up in May is Akin and July is the soonest I can hope to see the other AAA starters promoted.   

I say this because of Elias desire for players to master a level before being promoted.

Since I think there will be some months before promotions occur I think Elias will sign some 6 year minor league starters or claim starter(s) from the waiver wire to full the gap in starters and long relievers at the begin of the season.

I am not saying you are wrong.   Your opinion is as good or better than mine.  But I just don't have the level of optimism that you do in this case.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Even if you just think Mountcastle is a two-win player over the next six, that's $96M in free agent terms.

You lost me.

If you hold him back for close to the minimum amount of time than you are looking at six years versus six+ years w/super 2 status.  So basically you are looking at one year at Arb 4 which might be more than what two wins will cost in seven years.

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its kind of a weird thing for me to say but you are more optimistic about the development and promotion of the young starters than I am.   I don't think any of them break camp with the O's, the only one I see has a chance to be up in May is Akin and July is the soonest I can hope to see the other AAA starters promoted.   

I say this because of Elias desire for players to master a level before being promoted.

Since I think there will be some months before promotions occur I think Elias will sign some 6 year minor league starters or claim starter(s) from the waiver wire to full the gap in starters and long relievers at the begin of the season.

I am not saying you are wrong.   Your opinion is as good or better than mine.  But I just don't have the level of optimism that you do in this case.

The way I see it, 2019 was the year to get guys like Wojo, Brooks, and other scrap heap reclamation projects.  I mean, the rotation this year was totally held together with duct tape and bubblegum.  You said he will sign 6 year minor leaguers, claim starters from the WW...I believe he will do that to a certain degree but I have a hard time seeing him do it for a whole season again.  

I don't see that being the case this year, at least from the perspective of where Elias has to find arms/innings.  If they want to play the service clock game, understandable...but we gotta see what we've got in regards to some of these prospects.  By the end of ST 2020, they'll have had a year under Elias/Sig, analytics, whatever.  I understand the desire for players to master a level before being promoted but...at some point the guys in the minors will have to be more attractive options than a 6 year minor leaguer/WW pickup.

 

[foxfield]

21 hours ago, wildcard said:

And how do they do when they are promoted to the majors?

I  think these are two key questions going forward.    If Akin, Kremer, Lowther, Baumann Wells and/or Zimmerman  or some portion there of are promoted in July  instead of September its a different scenario for next season.    Akin could be promoted as early as May because he has spent a year at AAA already.  Its really depends on what he shows  O's management  in terms of development.  The other 5 could be as soon as July or as late a September if they pitch well.   

The lineup the O's could field looks pretty offensive.  The addition of Hays and Mountcastle is big for the offense along with if Villar stays.

 

Villar SS,  111 runs scored,  24 HR, 33 doubles and 40 steals

Hays CF,  Possible .280 hitter with 20 HR power

Mancini 1B/LF,  900 OPS

Mountcastle LF/1B,    300 hitter with power.   Pretty much the duplicate of Mancini's production in his rookie year.

 Nunez DH,  30 HR, 90 RBI  

 Santander RF,   20 HR in 380  at bats,  808 OPS with RISP

 Alberto 2B,  300 hitter who probably will not hit as well as he did vs lefties but his minor league numbers say he should improve vs righties.

 Wilkerson 3B/Utility vs righties,   783 OPS vs righties

Severino  C,  812 OPs vs lefties

Sisco   C,  772 OPS vs righties

Williams 4th OF,   can backup all three OF positions and had a 848 OPS at AAA

 Davis, defensive backup at 1B

Stewart  COF,  had a 944 OPS at AAA, has options

Ruiz  3B,   766 OPS in the 2nd half, has option

That looks like a pretty good offense.  Maybe league average or above.

 

So its the pitching that  holds O's back (no big surprise)

Pen

Harvey, Closer,   ERA of 2.00 or lower

Bleier,  Setup, now healthy repeats 2017.   ERA of 2.00 for 63 IP.

Givens, Setup, limited to one inning and in the 7th or 8th.  Never the 9th. Repeats 2017.  2.75 ERA, 78 IP

Castro, Middle relief,  ERA of under 4.00,  70 IP

Carroll,   Middle to late relief,   Has a 2.72 ERA in 46 IP at AAA

Tanner Scott,  Used situationally when two lefties are coming up in an inning,  .188 avg vs lefties in 2019,  used for 3 batters. 

Brooks had a  2.89 ERA in 28 IP as a reliever in 2019.  If he doesn't start

One or two  6 year minor leaguers in mid to long relief.  

Starters

Means, 12-11, 27 starts, 3.60 ERA should add to his 155 IP

Bundy, an optimistic approach would say he can repeat 2017.   13-9,  4.24 ERA,    170 IP

Cobb,  An optimistic approach would say he can repeat 2017, 12-10 3.66 ERA, 180 IP

The 4th and 5th starters are some combination of Wojo, Brooks and three 6 year minor leaguers that are acquired this off season.

This is why Akin in May is important and how soon some the rest of the AAA pitchers are promoted makes a difference.

 

So what Elias needs to add in this scenario is 4, 6 year minor league starter/long relievers or waiver claims.  Hoping the two will actually be productive until the O's AAA pitchers are ready for promotion.    These 6 year minor league pitchers are just added to fill the gap until the O's AAA pitchers are ready for promotion. And an infielder that can hit left-handed pitching and play 3B/SS.  

Doesn't  sound like a lot to ask for.

How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?  And how will they do once promoted?  I don't know.  Personally, I think it is much later than the end of your post indicates.  I think deep down you know that.  We are all rooting for the arms to flourish.  But your own posts undercuts your wild dreams even before your first paragraph ends.  It is the single most accurate line in your post and I quote it without any modification at all:

 

The lineup the O's could field looks pretty offensive.

 

Sad but true.  The old Freudian Slip.....