Would you offer Hays or Mountcastle a long term deal now?

[Redskins Rick]

Personally, I like the page out of the Indians playbook a few years ago, when the prospect would have get up in the bigs, and see how they were, and then lock them up before they got close to arb years.

This team should have done that with Manny but ownership at that time, wasnt interested in the team, just making money.

 

[DirtyBird]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Can’t disagree with you here.   I guess the question is, if you don’t really know, why take the risk of losing something valuable?     What’s the upside to starting him earlier?     I’d say very little.   

Anyway, we’ll see how Diaz performs at AAA and whether he makes a strong case for promotion.    Hopefully he does and we can renew this discussion.   
 

I think getting experience in MLB is more valuable than AAA experience. So, if playing half the 2020 season in Baltimore makes him a better major league player on opening day of the 2021 season, then it is worth doing.

[NCRaven]

If Elias is able to achieve his goal of establishing a reliable, long-term pipeline of minor league talent, then we should have Diaz's replacement ready to go before he hits free agency.  I've argued for keeping Mountcastle down, but the more I think about it, the more I believe that a month in Baltimore's LF would be better for him than a month in Norfolk's.  And a 17 year old Dominican that we signed in July should be ready to take his place when the Orioles are ready to move on.  If he becomes a superstar, I guessed wrong.

[Redskins Rick]

46 minutes ago, weams said:

Then he broke his neck twice.

Is that what it was, I thought maybe some of the hates were sticking their pins in their vodoo doll of him lol

[Frobby]

42 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

I think getting experience in MLB is more valuable than AAA experience. So, if playing half the 2020 season in Baltimore makes him a better major league player on opening day of the 2021 season, then it is worth doing.

I’d probably disagree.    I’d rather have an entire extra year of Diaz in 2027, when hopefully we are contenders, then a slightly improved version of Diaz in 2021, when we’re not contenders.    But I do understand the arguments the other way.    It would certainly make 2020 more interesting if we have some young prospects to follow.     Last September was certainly more enjoyable once Hays arrived, for example.     

[wildcard]

56 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’d probably disagree.    I’d rather have an entire extra year of Diaz in 2027, when hopefully we are contenders, then a slightly improved version of Diaz in 2021, when we’re not contenders.    But I do understand the arguments the other way.    It would certainly make 2020 more interesting if we have some young prospects to follow.     Last September was certainly more enjoyable once Hays arrived, for example.     

We should  have prospects to cheer for in 2020.  Hays, Mountcastle, Harvey, Akin, Bailey, Tate and maybe Rucker.  Plus young players Means and Santander.  Possibly Martin at some point.

[weams]

Just now, wildcard said:

We should  have prospects to cheer for in 2020.  Hays, Mountcastle, Harvey, Akin, Bailey, Tate and maybe Rucker.  Plus young players Means and Santander.  Possibly Martin at some point.

I agree. It will be fun for me. 

[LookinUp]

16 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Montcastle is more athletic than Mancini?  Everyone assumes this but what does it mean? Does he run faster? Throw better?  Get better jumps?  Go back on the ball better?  Mountcastle may or may not turn out to be a better outfielder than Mancini.  It's far from a slam dunk.  It's curious that the former SS, in name only,  isn't seen as a future plus fielding 1B.  If he's really so athletic,  1B should have been a breeze.  Just remember,  Reimold was faster and had a stronger arm than either one of these guys.  Some might call Reimold athletic.

Mancini is clunky. Reimold was a straight line runner. Fast, but not particularly athletic. I think Mountcastle has better agility, but isn't particularly fast, so the difference won't be huge I'd guess.

4 hours ago, Philip said:

 I don’t know anything about the guys in the high minors, but we have 6 guys who played OF last year( Mancini, Smith, Stewart, Wilkerson, Hays, Santander) plus Mountcastle...and more( Williams, Mullins, etc)

Something’s got to give,...

 

And it will. The best case scenario is if we can flip one or more of those guys for a pitcher like Wojo who needs a chance. Our kinda decent fat for another team's kinda decent fat.

[weams]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Mancini is clunky. Reimold was a straight line runner. Fast, but not particularly athletic. I think Mountcastle has better agility, but isn't particularly fast, so the difference won't be huge I'd guess.

And it will. The best case scenario is if we can flip one or more of those guys for a pitcher like Wojo who needs a chance. Our kinda decent fat for another team's kinda decent fat.

When we trade Mancini, all will work out. Smith might not stick, Stewart might not recover. Wilkerson is a 41st guy on a 40 man roster.  Williams and Mullins are not prospects. They are AAA insurance. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, weams said:

When we trade Mancini, all will work out. Smith might not stick, Stewart might not recover. Wilkerson is a 41st guy on a 40 man roster.  Williams and Mullins are not prospects. They are AAA insurance. 

I mostly agree with all that, except 1) Although we may trade Mancini, it’s not imminent, so  we have to plan as if he’s going to be here, until he’s not. 

2) Wilk Is a proven asset. He’s not incredibly valuable at any one position, but he can adequately cover just about every position on the field except catcher, and maybe even be the emergency catcher: he’s probably not much worse than Sisco.

I’m on board with everything else, but even subtracting Stewart, we have several other guys we have to deal with. The only definites our Santander in right and Hays in Center...for now.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Philip said:

I mostly agree with all that, except 1) Although we may trade Mancini, it’s not imminent, so  we have to plan as if he’s going to be here, until he’s not. 

2) Wilk Is a proven asset. He’s not incredibly valuable at any one position, but he can adequately cover just about every position on the field except catcher, and maybe even be the emergency catcher: he’s probably not much worse than Sisco.

I’m on board with everything else, but even subtracting Stewart, we have several other guys we have to deal with. The only definites our Santander in right and Hays in Center...for now.

How can someone who is well below replacement level for his career be a proven asset?

 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

How can someone who is well below replacement level for his career be a proven asset?

 

Yes. Proven Closer though. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, weams said:

Then [Reimold] broke his neck twice.

He was a pretty poor outfielder even before that happened.    Very bad at reacting to line drives hit in front of him, and prone to turning the wrong way on balls hit in back of him.  

[now]

21 hours ago, Frobby said:

I believe Diaz’s OPS+ last year was higher than Mountcastle’s.    The Eastern League was an extreme pitchers’ league last year (.677 league OPS compared to Diaz’s .807) whereas the International League, having shifted to the major league ball, was quite hitter-friendly (.787 league OPS compared to Mountcastle’s .871).   Diaz was playing a level below Mountcastle at the same age, so that has to be taken into account when comparing the two.     But I certainly wouldn’t suggest that Diaz isn’t going to hit.    People really need to look a league context, and his injuries, when assessing Diaz’s season.

Wow, didn't realize that about Diaz's season, under the radar because of regular stats and league context. But that's an OPS+ of 119 for Diaz, compared to 111 for Mountcastle's MVP-Triple Crown-whatever season. Looking fwd to seeing more of both this spring.

[HowAboutThat]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

’d rather have an entire extra year of Diaz in 2027, when hopefully we are contenders, then a slightly improved version of Diaz in 2021, when we’re not contenders

I don’t understand comments like this. 2027 is 7years away. We’ going to keep acquiring players: the guys we have as prospects now, are going to be replaced by guys who are better and cheaper, or as good and cheaper. Who cares about having Diaz in 7 years? Unless he’s incredible, which is by no means assured, we will have multiple guys who are better than he is( or at least as good as he is, as well as younger and cheaper) or the foundation Mike is laying now will have failed.

If we don’t have a handful of players in, say, 2023, who are better than our best right now, Something has gone wrong.

So now isn’t the time to be signing anybody long-term. Or worrying about service time.