Lindor - Why Not?

[UMDTerrapins]

I know this is going a little off the rails, but this thread prompted the question. When we do actually become participants in the free agent market again, will the new regime have to deal with the old controversy from ownership regarding pre-signing physicals? I’m not asking because I want to debate the positives and negatives, I’m just curious if Elias has had to address the subject publicly. 

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, UMDTerrapins said:

I know this is going a little off the rails, but this thread prompted the question. When we do actually become participants in the free agent market again, will the new regime have to deal with the old controversy from ownership regarding pre-signing physicals? I’m not asking because I want to debate the positives and negatives, I’m just curious if Elias has had to address the subject publicly. 

We won't know until it comes up.  Elias, to the best of my knowledge, hasn't been publicly asked and if he was I would expect he wouldn't give a reply that would indicate any undue scrutiny of players.

[tntoriole]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not Wildcard's.

Or mine...lol.   Or Trey’s mom.   Or Trey’s. 

[now]

5 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Adley and an add on piece or two (not Hall, GRod, Hays, Diaz, or Baumann) would be enough. Yes, Lindor is insanely valuable, but so is a prospect like Adley. 

If it comes to that I'd rather keep Adley, even though both are premium hitters at premium positions. Lindor is proven; Adley is younger.  So in a way, a tossup.

Which brings it back to a question I'd love your take on. If you needed to give up a Means (proven) vs. a Hall (higher ceiling), which one do you let go? Or does it depend on the team's context of window of contention)?

[ArtVanDelay]

16 minutes ago, now said:

If it comes to that I'd rather keep Adley, even though both are premium hitters at premium positions. Lindor is proven; Adley is younger.  So in a way, a tossup.

Which brings it back to a question I'd love your take on. If you needed to give up a Means (proven) vs. a Hall (higher ceiling), which one do you let go? Or does it depend on the team's context of window of contention)?

If Means were on another team, would you trade Hall for him?

I definitely wouldn’t.

[Luke-OH]

9 minutes ago, now said:

If it comes to that I'd rather keep Adley, even though both are premium hitters at premium positions. Lindor is proven; Adley is younger.  So in a way, a tossup.

Which brings it back to a question I'd love your take on. If you needed to give up a Means (proven) vs. a Hall (higher ceiling), which one do you let go? Or does it depend on the team's context of window of contention)?

I think Hall is worth more than Means. Maybe that’s prospect hugging, but there are a number of signs Means wasn’t as good as his ERA. More of a #4/5 starter. 

Then if you factor in the Orioles place on the win curve, present day wins mean practically nothing which pushes it even further towards Hall.

[now]

6 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I think Hall is worth more than Means. Maybe that’s prospect hugging, but there are a number of signs Means wasn’t as good as his ERA. More of a #4/5 starter. 

Then if you factor in the Orioles place on the win curve, present day wins mean practically nothing which pushes it even further towards Hall.

Thanks for the response. From it I gather that one good year in the show doesn't necessarily equate to "proven" -- or that MLB-proven isn't as much of an advantage as one might think over prospect value or MiLB-proven...?

[Luke-OH]

32 minutes ago, now said:

Thanks for the response. From it I gather that one good year in the show doesn't necessarily equate to "proven" -- or that MLB-proven isn't as much of an advantage as one might think over prospect value or MiLB-proven...?

It depends, if he threw 95 and struck out 10 per 9 and walked 2 per 9, then you’d feel much better about him repeating the performance. 

But he outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and xwOBA, he’s got 91mph fastball with hop and a plus changeup, but not much else. His 2019 season looks better by descriptive stats than by predictive stats.

[now]

10 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

It depends, if he threw 95 and struck out 10 per 9 and walked 2 per 9, then you’d feel much better about him repeating the performance. 

But he outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and xwOBA, he’s got 91mph fastball with hop and a plus changeup, but not much else. His 2019 season looks better by descriptive stats than by predictive stats.

Thanks again... so, I guess the takeaway is, there are fifty shades of "proven" - just like, fifty shades of "prospect."

[weams]

7 hours ago, now said:

If it comes to that I'd rather keep Adley, even though both are premium hitters at premium positions. Lindor is proven; Adley is younger.  So in a way, a tossup.

Which brings it back to a question I'd love your take on. If you needed to give up a Means (proven) vs. a Hall (higher ceiling), which one do you let go? Or does it depend on the team's context of window of contention)?

Means   He is older.

[weams]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

We won't know until it comes up.  Elias, to the best of my knowledge, hasn't been publicly asked and if he was I would expect he wouldn't give a reply that would indicate any undue scrutiny of players.

I agree. 

[Scalious]

On 12/21/2019 at 11:54 PM, Luke-OH said:

It depends, if he threw 95 and struck out 10 per 9 and walked 2 per 9, then you’d feel much better about him repeating the performance. 

But he outperformed his FIP, xFIP, and xwOBA, he’s got 91mph fastball with hop and a plus changeup, but not much else. His 2019 season looks better by descriptive stats than by predictive stats.

 FIP IMO underrated change up heavy from time to time. Or more specifically. MLB hitters can read spin difference between breakers and fastball(well, sort of). Of course how effective this also a lot to do with repeating your release point etc etc. The whole point of a change up is to mimic a FB. There is a strong correlation with plus change and lower BABIPs.  Not .256 good, but well under 300.

Lots of hard throwers can try to the same with a FB/SL approach. The Jack Flaherty's of the world who can do it masterfully seem more rare though. That just a very armature opinion though. You probably would know better

I'm more optimistic about Means for that though. Most change up experts don't have a Fly ball tendency. They work down in the zone and get grounders. xFIP also has a bias against Fly ball pitchers. As they tend to have lower then average HR/FB rates and BABIPs.

He will probably have some regression. Just not nearly as much as you might think. 

Edited December 23, 2019 by Scalious

[Luke-OH]

4 hours ago, Scalious said:

 FIP IMO underrated change up heavy from time to time. Or more specifically. MLB hitters can read spin difference between breakers and fastball(well, sort of). Of course how effective this also a lot to do with repeating your release point etc etc. The whole point of a change up is to mimic a FB. There is a strong correlation with plus change and lower BABIPs.  Not .256 good, but well under 300.

Lots of hard throwers can try to the same with a FB/SL approach. The Jack Flaherty's of the world who can do it masterfully seem more rare though. That just a very armature opinion though. You probably would know better

I'm more optimistic about Means for that though. Most change up experts don't have a Fly ball tendency. They work down in the zone and get grounders. xFIP also has a bias against Fly ball pitchers. As they tend to have lower then average HR/FB rates and BABIPs.

He will probably have some regression. Just not nearly as much as you might think. 

 You make some good points and I don't expect his ERA to mirror his xFIP, I expect him to still be a solid starting pitcher. I do expect that .256 BABIP to rise a bit, he suppressed line drives in a way that we probably shouldn't expect him to repeat. That and the 76% LOB will probably drop. I do think he has a shot to repeat the HR suppression, but that may be wishful thinking. Basically I think he's more of a 4.25 true talent guy than a 3.60 true talent guy. Still a solid rotation piece. 

That said, Means has shown major improvements recently and who is to say he doesn't improve his arsenal of pitches this offseason. If he could get more spin on his below average curveball and make it a better weapon, that'd help the vertical life on the fastball play up as well. 

(I'm not sure if you were trying to link articles on the text you underlined, but if so, the links don't work and I'd like to read the articles.)

[sportsfan8703]

Signing any FA makes zero sense until we find out what we have.  The 2021-2022 off-season is where we could make a splash.  

For all of those that are struggling coping with the rebuild just think about this,

-The Yankees are definitely going for it, and may be the best team in the AL.

-Boston looks like a potential 90 win team. 

-Tampa made the playoffs last year and have a loaded system to get even better at the MLB level.

-TOR has a young group of position players that they have really supplemented with FA's and trades this offseason. 

The O's could "try", spend $50 million in payroll, and still end up in last place.  Instead of losing 105, we'd lose 95.  We had our "run", now it's time to bide our time and gear up for another run.  Hopefully, with better int'l spending and player development, our windown for our next run will have a higher ceiling, and be longer.  

Edited December 23, 2019 by sportsfan8703

[Just Regular]

Now that the Twins are the ones who were left standing in the LHSP musical chairs with White Sox getting Keuchel and Blue Jays Ryu, they become a nice Means fit, if Elias is inclined to shop him.

The Angels and Dodgers as the other reported Ryu bidders don't seem like as good of fits.  Only the Cardinals were mentioned in Keuchel rumors but not Ryu ones, but the back of the Cardinals rotation looks a lot sturdier than Minnesota's.  David Price is effectively free if you'll pay his whole contract, but that's still a lot for them.  Matthew Boyd would be an in-division trade, Danny Duffy is bad.  Robbie Ray to Twins may be just right if Means is unavailable.

Prospects Live's Twins list goes ROYCE LEWIS.....Alex Kiriloff, Trevor Larnach, Brusdar Graterol.....jordan balazovic.

Lewis too good to be true, Kiriloff/Larnach duplicate positions we kind of have, my lowercase for balazovic is he feels short of what I'd hope for.  Graterol does dominate more in the style Elias likes - that's the one I'm a bit unsure who would say no.