My O's 2020 offensive projection

[wildcard]

The pitching will be the down fall of the O's in 2020.  But there are some things to look forward to on offense.   Elias may not platoon the way I want them to in order to maximize of the offense but this swag shows what could happen if they did.

The team's power and batting average is pretty good but the OBP and stolen base are poor which holds down the runs scored.

Note: I see Hays and Iglesias missing significant time due to injuries.  Mountcastle gets called up a month into the season.

2020 batting averages

Name                AB   R   H   HR  RBI    SB    Avg  OBP  SLG   OPS   

*Hays               470    72  132  25   76   7   282   322  510   831 

CF  Last 3 year AB  and averages.   Misses some time with injuries

*Wilkerson            460   65    121    20   56    5   264 311  472   783    

2B/OF   Platooned vs righties  after  the first month;  2019 numbers

*Mancini               602  106  175  35  97   1  291  364 535 899 

RF/DH Duplicates 2019

*Santander           600   73   156  32   93  2 261 297   476  773                                                            

LF   2019 number extend to 600 at bats

-Mountcastle        500   60    146  22  72 1  293  338  488   826  

1B  Spends first month in AAA then duplicates Mancini rookie year

*Sisco                   430    76   95   23    57    0   223 339  432  772 

C  Platooned vs righties   2019 numbers

*Nunez                 541   72  132    30  90  1  244  311 460  771  

DH Duplicates 2019

*Ruiz                    415   44   94      22  66  0  227   304   462    766   

3B  2nd half average extended over a full season.   Platooned vs righties

*Iglesias               466   54   126    7  54    9  271  306  389  695  

SS 3 year  averages

*Alberto          220       28     76    4    18   2   346   362    455      816

2B/3B Platooned vs lefties;  Plays everyday for Mar/April but does not hit righties well. Career number vs lefties

*Severino      170         25     46   10   39   0     273     323   490      812

C Platooned vs lefties

*Davis            70      6        13       3    9      0    191    286   350      636

1B   Plays  for first month until  Mountcastle is promoted then defensive back up

*Urena        264     22       67      2    15    3     253    300    324    636

SS/3B   Platoon 3B and backup for SS

*Smith       50         6         12        2      7   1    252     311     423    734

LF  backup for 1st 2 weeks

-Stewart      150      21       36       6      23   3    241    323    422     745

LF/RF/DH    On the Norfolk shuttle. Career numbers

-Williams       192     21      55      2     12     3      286    325    382     707

CF recalled when Hays injured; Career numbers

                   AB       Runs   Hits     HR    RBI   SB   AVG    OBP  SLG  OPS

ToTal       5600    752      1482   245   734   38     265    322   459    781

  In the AL            11th       5th    6th    7th  14th    5th    9th     5th     5th

* Begins the season in the majors

- Begins the season in the minors or on the IL 

 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

This seems pretty optimistic for the most part. I think Stewart might do better than a .745 OPS.

[mdbdotcom]

Are you still working on all the spring training lineups and in-game substitutions?

[Aristotelian]

Hays outslugging Mountcastle and Nunez is bold!

[ChuckS]

.831 for Hays seems especially aggressive.  He's struggled for large portions of his last two minor league seasons.  Not to expect some significant struggles in his first full big league season seems unreasonable.  I'd be overjoyed if he broke .800 on the season. 

I'm not expecting Mancini and Alberto to repeat their 2019 performances.  That's extremely wishful thinking, both coming off of career years. 

[Frobby]

I think the following projections are very optimistic:

Hays .831

Wilkerson .783

Mountcastle .826 

Sisco .772

Alberto .816

Severino .812

Also, I don’t understand who you think is getting the at bats at 2B.    I’ll be stunned if Alberto bats only 220 times if he’s healthy.  

[wildcard]

11 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

.831 for Hays seems especially aggressive.  He's struggled for large portions of his last two minor league seasons.  Not to expect some significant struggles in his first full big league season seems unreasonable.  I'd be overjoyed if he broke .800 on the season. 

I'm not expecting Mancini and Alberto to repeat their 2019 performances.  That's extremely wishful thinking, both coming off of career years. 

I have Alberto platooned vs lefties.  And he drops from a 948 OPS vs lefties to a 816 OPS.  That is not repeating last season.  That is his career MLB numbers vs lefties.

[wildcard]

22 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think the following projections are very optimistic:

Hays .831

Wilkerson .783

Mountcastle .826 

Sisco .772

Alberto .816

Severino .812

Also, I don’t understand who you think is getting the at bats at 2B.    I’ll be stunned if Alberto bats only 220 times if he’s healthy.  

Last season Alberto had a 609 OPS vs righties.   If he doesn't improve that substantially he will be platooned.  I think he gets the opportunity to show he can do better but right now I think he is a platoon vs lefties.

Wilkerson came through the minors as a 2B.  He had a 783 OPS vs righties last season.   His 783 OPS  vs Alberto 609 OPS vs righties is too big to ignore.   

Wilkerson,  Sisco, and Severino are all platoon numbers from last season.  Alberto is a career platoon number vs lefties.

[wildcard]

46 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Hays outslugging Mountcastle and Nunez is bold!

When healthy Hays has out slugged Mountcastle.  The question is can he stay health.   Hays had over 500 Slugging at Aberdeen, Frederick, Bowie and the O's.  Mountcastle has only done that at Norfolk.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

This seems pretty optimistic for the most part. I think Stewart might do better than a .745 OPS.

Stewart might do better but the numbers I listed are based on his career numbers in the majors.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

12 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Stewart might do better but the numbers I listed are based on his career numbers in the majors.

Stewart needs to do it at the MLB be level, but I think he is capable of putting up an .800+ OPS season. 

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

When healthy Hays has out slugged Mountcastle.  The question is can he stay health.   Hays had over 500 Slugging at Aberdeen, Frederick, Bowie and the O's.  Mountcastle has only done that at Norfolk.

Mountcastle put up .885 at Frederick and his .871 at Norfolk is 100 points higher than Hays. I don't think either will come close to Nunez in their first full year but you never know. 

[wildcard]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Mountcastle put up .885 at Frederick and his .871 at Norfolk is 100 points higher than Hays. I don't think either will come close to Nunez in their first full year but you never know. 

We had a thread that discussed the comparison of Mountcastle with Mancini.   As the discussion evolved it was thought that Mountcastle could match Mancini's rookie numbers.    I included that thought in my projection.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

We had a thread that discussed the comparison of Mountcastle with Mancini.   As the discussion evolved it was thought that Mountcastle could match Mancini's rookie numbers.    I included that thought in my projection.

I think folks are having an issue with Hays' projection more than Mountcastle's.

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are having an issue with Hays' projection more than Mountcastle's.

My thoughts on Hays are that health is his major problem.  When healthy he performs at a high level.  He is capability of performing at an elite level for periods of time.    The range of healthy peak performs and unhealthy mediocre preforms can be seen in his numbers over the last three years.

I think its unrealistic given his injury history to project that he plays all of 2020.  I have him playing 470 AB of a full season which would have been 662 at bats.    About 70%.   470 is the total amount of AB he has had over the last three years divided by three.

It appears to me that when Hays is healthy he can put up a 900-950 OPS.  That was true in Aberdeen, Frederick, Bowie and in the majors in Sept.     But he does play hurt which happened in Bowie and Norfolk in 2018 and 2019.   During those period he can't put up elite numbers.   The best way to account of all that was to take the average of his last three years numbers.  

The average of his three years takes the highs and the lowest due to not being completely health.   That is why I put him at 831 instant of over 900.  His minor league career OPS is 835.  But I only see him playing 70% of a season because he has been injury prone.