My O's 2020 offensive projection

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

My thoughts on Hays are that health is his major problem.  When healthy he performs at a high level.  He is capability of performing at an elite level for periods of time.    The range of healthy peak performs and unhealthy mediocre preforms can be seen in his numbers over the last three years.

I think its unrealistic given his injury history to project that he plays all of 2020.  I have him playing 470 AB of a full season which would have been 662 at bats.    About 70%.   470 is the total amount of AB he has had over the last three years divided by three.

It appears to me that when Hays is healthy he can put up a 900-950 OPS.  That was true in Aberdeen, Frederick, Bowie and in the majors in Sept.     But he does play hurt which happened in Bowie and Norfolk in 2018 and 2019.   During those period he can't put up elite number.   The best way to account of all that was to take the average of his last three years number.  

The average of his three years takes the highs and the lowest due to not being completely health.   That is why I put him at 831 instant of over 900.  His minor league career OPS is 835.  But I only see him playing 70% of a season because he has been injury prone.

He was healthy in 2017 when he put up a 555 OPS in September.  Pretty similar sample size as 2019.

[wildcard]

53 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was healthy in 2017 when he put up a 555 OPS in September.  Pretty similar sample size as 2019.

Yes, but I don't find that relevant to projection his performance now.  He was 22, in the majors for the first time, and it was September after playing a full season.  He has probably fatigued.   

He is more experienced now.   Better ability to handle the emotional, physical and mental parts of the game.  

[TheOtherRipken]

Its easy to point out that the offensive numbers are wildly optimistic, but hard to forget that thats why they call you the Wildcard. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Yes, but I don't find that relevant to projection his performance now.  He was 22, in the majors for the first time, and it was September after playing a full season.  He has probably fatigued.   

He is more experienced now.   Better ability to handle the emotional, physical and mental parts of the game.  

Of course you don't find a nearly identical sample size with wildly different results relevant.

I'd be shocked if you did.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, TheOtherRipken said:

Its easy to point out that the offensive numbers are wildly optimistic, but hard to forget that thats why they call you the Wildcard. 

I call him Wildcard because that is the name he picked for himself.

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, TheOtherRipken said:

Its easy to point out that the offensive numbers are wildly optimistic, but hard to forget that thats why they call you the Wildcard. 

They call me wildcard because the the name I picked.   I picked the name because I thought being in the division with the Yankees and Red Sox the best chance for the O's to get into the playoffs was thought he Wild Card.

Being optimistic is just the way I like to look at the Orioles.  I find it more fun than complaining all the time.

[TheOtherRipken]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

They call me wildcard because the the name I picked.   I picked the name because I thought being in the division with the Yankees and Red Sox the best chance for the O's to get into the playoffs was thought he Wild Card.

Being optimistic is just the way I like to look at the Orioles.  I find it more fun than complaining all the time.

You say complaining, I say constructive criticism, but I guess it depends which poster is posting.

[TheOtherRipken]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I call him Wildcard because that is the name he picked for himself.

That is appropriate.

[sportsfan8703]

Wilkerson, Sisco, and Ruiz all hitting 20+ HR

The things this lineup could do with Davis on the bench. Haha

Edited January 26, 2020 by sportsfan8703

[Frobby]

12 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think folks are having an issue with Hays' projection more than Mountcastle's.

I’d put it this way:  either one could reach wildcard’s projection, but in each case it’s a bit optimistic, and the odds that both of them do it are pretty small.     But I’ll be very excited about it if it happens.    It would be a great sign for the team’s future.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Wilkerson, Sisco, and Ruiz all hitting 20+ HR

The things this lineup could do with Davis on the bench. Haha

And all three platooned vs righties.   For Wilkerson and Sisco I took the number of the homers they hit vs righties 2019 and multiple it times playing a full season in a platoon.   Over 400 at bats.

Ruiz is also a platoon guy. He made an adjustment in the 2nd half to produce more homers.  I just took his 2nd half  homers and multiple it times a full season.  Over 400 at bats.

[Frobby]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think the following projections are very optimistic:

Hays .831 (.730, .756, .810)

Wilkerson .783 (.622, .648, .698)

Mountcastle .826 (.725, .772

Sisco .772 (.723, .724, .733)

Alberto .816 (.696, .706, .752)

Severino .812 (.662, .726, .694)

Also, I don’t understand who you think is getting the at bats at 2B.    I’ll be stunned if Alberto bats only 220 times if he’s healthy.  

I’ve added the ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel projection for each player in parentheses.

As to Alberto, it’s very unrealistic to think he’s going to be in a platoon where all of his at bats, or even the vast majority, are against lefties.     That simply doesn’t happen.     Here’s a list of every player who had 200-250 at bats last year and a platoon percentage higher than 75% (i.e., 75% of his at bats came against an opposite-handed pitcher):

Johan Camargo (switch hitter)

Francisco Mejia (switch hitter)

Adam Haseley (LHB)

Matt Joyce (LHB)

Ehire Adrianza (switch hitter)

Ender Inciarte (LHB)

Jake Cave (LHB)

Jake Lamb (LHB)

Ildemara Vargas (switch hitter)

Alex Avila (LHB)

Isan Diaz (LHB)

It's basically impossible to protect a RHB from facing RHP a good percentage of the time, especially in this day and age where many starting pitchers are only going through the lineup twice before giving way to the bullpen.   But really, it’s always been true.    Back in the years where John Lowenstein was getting 90% of his at bats against RHP, Gary Roenike’s platoon percentages ran about 50%.     

 

[Frobby]

Just to elaborate a little more, of the 29 right handed batters who batted 200-250 times last year, the highest platoon percentage was Donovan Solano at 54%.    

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’ve added the ZiPS, Steamer and Marcel projection for each player in parentheses.

As to Alberto, it’s very unrealistic to think he’s going to be in a platoon where all of his at bats, or even the vast majority, are against lefties.     That simply doesn’t happen.     Here’s a list of every player who had 200-250 at bats last year and a platoon percentage higher than 75% (i.e., 75% of his at bats came against an opposite-handed pitcher):

Johan Camargo (switch hitter)

Francisco Mejia (switch hitter)

Adam Haseley (LHB)

Matt Joyce (LHB)

Ehire Adrianza (switch hitter)

Ender Inciarte (LHB)

Jake Cave (LHB)

Jake Lamb (LHB)

Ildemara Vargas (switch hitter)

Alex Avila (LHB)

Isan Diaz (LHB)

It's basically impossible to protect a RHB from facing RHP a good percentage of the time, especially in this day and age where many starting pitchers are only going through the lineup twice before giving way to the bullpen.   But really, it’s always been true.    Back in the years where John Lowenstein was getting 90% of his at bats against RHP, Gary Roenike’s platoon percentages ran about 50%.     

 

I agree with this and said so in the OP.   "Elias may not platoon the way I want them to in order to maximize of the offense but this swag shows what could happen if they did."

I posted it to show the effect of the platoons.    When I have time I will adjust it to something more realistic.  I don't know that 75% is the right number though.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Just to elaborate a little more, of the 29 right handed batters who batted 200-250 times last year, the highest platoon percentage was Donovan Solano at 54%.    

So you are really not talking about Wilkerson, Sisco and Ruiz who are lefties or switch-hitters.  You are talking about Alberto and Severino.