A look at the 99 pitchers who made the BA top 100 prospects list, 2008-10

[Frobby]

Now, I will say that there aren’t too many pitchers who meet my reliable starter criteria but never made the BA top 100 list.  Looking at the same three years (2008-10):

In 2008, 13 pitchers debuted who eventually met my reliable starter criteria.   Of those, the ones who were never on the BA 100 were Charlie Morton, Hideki Kuroda, Clayton Richard and Marco Estrada.   

Similarly, 13 pitchers debuted in 2009 who became reliable starters.    Only three never made the BA 100, Doug Fister, Mat Latos and Bud Norris.    

In 2010, only 8 pitchers debuted who became reliable starters.    Of those, only one, Ivan Nova, never made a BA 100 list.

Interestingly, in 2011, five of 12 reliable starters who debuted that season never made the BA 100 — Corey Kluber, Wade Miley, Mike Fiers, Lance Lynn and Alex Cobb.
 

 

 

 

[Frobby]

By the way, there were six pitchers from the O’s farm system listed in the top 100 sometime in 2008-10.   That’s a pretty high percentage of the 99 total listed.    In order of their highest ranking:

1.    Brian Matusz debuted at no. 25 on the 2009 list after the 2008 season in which he was drafted, even though he hadn’t pitched in a professional game yet.    In 2009, he zoomed through Frederick and Bowie and got promoted to the majors in August, throwing to a 4.63 ERA in 8 starts and retaining his rookie status.    On the strength of that, he vaulted to no. 4 on BA’s 2010 list.    He had a decent 2010 season but was a disaster in 2011, and in 2012 was converted to relief mid-season, pitching as a decent LOOGY for several years.   He suddenly cratered in 2016, got traded to Atlanta and released, and made one appearance with the Cubs.   He finished his career at 2.3 rWAR, certainly a big disappointment for a pitcher who reached no. 4 in the BA 100.

2.    Chris Tillman was ranked no. 67 on the 2008 list, the same month that he was traded to the Orioles.   He had an excellent 2008 season as a 20-year old at Bowie, vaulting to no. 22 on the 2009 list, three spots above his teammate Matusz.    Tillman debuted in the majors in June 2009, and bounced between the majors and the minors during 2010 and 2011 and spent the first part of 2012 in the minors as well.   He got promoted in July and gave the O’s 4.5 solid seasons in which he went 65-33 with a 3.81 ERA, helping the O’s to their three playoff appearances and earning 12.5 rWAR in those seasons.    But he hurt his shoulder towards the end of 2016 and was never the same, pitching horribly in 2017-18 before the O’s gave up on him.    He finished his career at 9.3 rWAR, having lost a lot of ground from where he was at the end of 2016.    Despite the disappointing finish, I’d consider him to have had a solid outcome for a guy who topped out at no. 22.

3.   Zach Britton had been in our system for four years before debuting at no. 63 on the 2010 list, on the strength of an excellent season at  Frederick as a 21-year old.    He followed that up with a very good season split between Bowie and Norfolk that pushed him to no. 28 on the 2011 list. That year, he made the rotation to start the season and got off to a great start, developed some shoulder issues and finished the year with a 4.61 ERA in 154 IP. He bounced up and down, mostly as a starter but also in relief, in 2012-13.   In 2014 he was out of options and converted purely to relief.    He took to it like a duck to water, quickly got installed as the closer, and put together three stellar seasons including his amazing 2016 season in which he converted 47 saves without blowing one, and posted a 0.54 ERA.    He was hampered by injuries in 2017-18, and traded at the July 2018 deadline to the Yankees, where he is now a dependable set up guy.    He’s been worth 13.7 rWAR, 11.0 as an Oriole.    While he didn’t succeed as a starter, he’s had an excellent career as a reliever and you can’t complain about that from a guy who topped out at no. 28 on the list.   

4.   Troy Patton already had been ranked 62 and 58 on the 2006-07 lists, and briefly debuted in the majors for the Astros at the end of the 2007 season before being traded to the O’s in the December trade involving Miguel Tejada that netted Patton, Luke Scott and three other players.    Patton was considered the lead piece of that trade though it was known that he might require shoulder surgery.    He was ranked no. 78 on the 2008 list but missed that year after having the surgery.  In 2009 he split the year between Bowie and Norfolk, and he repeated Norfolk in 2010, but clearly wasn’t the same pitcher as before the surgery.   He excelled in relief at Norfolk in the first half of 2011 and was recalled to Baltimore, pitching solidly in relief down the stretch.   He was a good contributor to the bullpen in 2012-13, before being traded to the Padres for Nick Hundley in late May 2014 after Matt Wieters went on the DL.   Patton was DFA by the Padres that September and never returned to the majors, and also incurred an 80-game suspension for amphetamines.   He finished his career at 3.2 rWAR, respectable for a guy who topped out at no. 58 on the BA top 100.

5.    Jake Arrieta debuted at no. 67 on the 2009 list after winning Carolina League pitcher of the year in 2008, his first professional season after pitching in the AFL in 2007.    He pitched very well at Bowie but struggled following a promotion to Norfolk, dropping him to no. 99 on the 2010 list.    That season he improved considerably at Norfolk and got promoted to Baltimore in June, making 18 starts that year to a 4.66 ERA.    But his performance declined each year in Baltimore and he shuttled back and forth to the minors in 2012-13 before getting traded to the Cubs in late June for Scott Feldman.  Much to the chagrin of Orioles fans, Arrieta improved almost immediately with the Cubs, eventually winning the 2015 Cy Young award and being a key contributor to their 2016 World Series championship  team.     He’s been worth 24.0 rWAR in his career, but only 0.1 as an Oriole.    He had a fantastic outcome for a guy who only reached no. 67, but it didn’t do the Orioles any good.

6.   Last and least, Radhames Liz was no. 69 on the 2008 list after putting together a good season at Bowie as a 23-year old and making 9 appearances (4 starts) in Baltimore in 2007.    He bounced between the majors and minors in 2008-09 before the O’s released him.   He pitched overseas for several years before getting signed by the Pirates in 2015. He was released at the end of 2015 and didn’t return to the majors.    He was worth -1.7 rWAR in his career, and as an Oriole.

All together, the six pitchers have been worth 50.8 rWAR, about 8.5 per pitcher, slightly better than the 7.9 average of all pitchers on the list.     But it still feels very disappointing, mainly because Matusz underperformed badly and Arrieta’s success came only after he was traded.    
 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Gausman didn't make the list?

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Gausman didn't make the list?

He wasn’t drafted until 2012.    These are all players on the 2008-10 lists.   

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

He wasn’t drafted until 2012.    These are all players on the 2008-10 lists.   

Forgot that part.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Forgot that part.

Well, the study does give some context for evaluating Gausman and Bundy, as I think the 2008-10 results were pretty typical.   Gausman topped out at no. 20 and has been worth 10.2 rWAR.   Pretty similar to Tillman, who topped out at 22 and was worth 9.3 (but was at 12.5 before his collapse).    The main difference is, Gausman isn’t done pitching so he could add to or subtract from his total.    

Bundy got as high as no. 2 and has produced 6.8 rWAR.   Disappointing but you have to consider the injuries, plus he’s still young enough to add a considerable amount to that total.    

In either case, there are certainly more disappointing guys than these.    Gausman has already reached my “reliable starting pitcher” criteria (150 starts or 10+ rWAR primarily as a starter), and Bundy has a decent shot at getting there.    

 

 

[atomic]

Watching Matusz and Artieta in their early Oriole careers it is hard to imagine why Matusz was rated so much higher than Arrietta.  I never saw anything out of Matusz that looked like he had quality pitches. Arrietta always looked like he had ace stuff. 
 

It is almost that the people doing the ratings didn’t even watch the guys pitch and just looked at draft position and minor league stats.

[HowAboutThat]

@Frobby

I really think that you should talk to Tony about doing some full-time work. I don’t know how you manage it, but you offer very insightful articles/posts, And there’s frequently very little to disagree with( although I guess we are a bit at odds regarding Mr Davis.)

[WalkWithElias]

This feels like a sibling thread to "They All Break." The big takeaway here is it's really, really hard to find reliable starting pitching talent. Most pitchers aren't good or inconsistent at best.