O's claim Travis Lakins, DFA Stevie Wilkerson

[luismatos4prez]

I'm pretty optimistic about a future competitive OF of Santander, Hays, and Diaz with Mullins as 4th OF. Especially with Stewart, Mountcastle, and maybe even Mancini in the mix for 1B/DH.

It's the infield and pitching I'm worried about.

[Moose Milligan]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

I’m not even ready to declare Hays or Santander Major League outfielders.

I am.  Considering there aren't many other options, they're going to be ML outfielders.

[jarman86]

2 hours ago, MurphDogg said:

I would be floored if Mancini, who never played a position other than first base in the minors has a better arm than Mountcastle, who was playing shortstop in 2017 and third base as recently as last year. I think Mountcastle is likely to be a noticeably better outfielder than Mancini with sufficient reps, and the O's will make every effort to give Mountcastle those reps.

You didn't see Mountcastle play SS/3B then.  His arm was painful to watch in Bowie at 3rd.  I remember several basic outs any other 3rd baseman would've had thrown out easy, he made them close plays holding your breath.

[MurphDogg]

7 minutes ago, jarman86 said:

You didn't see Mountcastle play SS/3B then.  His arm was painful to watch in Bowie at 3rd.  I remember several basic outs any other 3rd baseman would've had thrown out easy, he made them close plays holding your breath.

Do you think it likely that Mancini, who was never give the opportunity to play any position other than first has a better arm? I don't doubt that Mountcastle's arm isn't playable at short or third in the Majors, but there is a huge chasm between that and a guy who only played first in the minors.

I imagine we will have the data on this soon enough. Would be nice if spring training games had Statcast, but I don't think they do.

[Frobby]

22 minutes ago, jarman86 said:

You didn't see Mountcastle play SS/3B then.  His arm was painful to watch in Bowie at 3rd.  I remember several basic outs any other 3rd baseman would've had thrown out easy, he made them close plays holding your breath.

 

11 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Do you think it likely that Mancini, who was never give the opportunity to play any position other than first has a better arm? I don't doubt that Mountcastle's arm isn't playable at short or third in the Majors, but there is a huge chasm between that and a guy who only played first in the minors.

I imagine we will have the data on this soon enough. Would be nice if spring training games had Statcast, but I don't think they do.

I remember that when Mancini was a prospect his arm was considered below average.    But looking at his hold rates in LF and RF, he’s basically been right at league average.     There has been so much negative written about Mountcastle’s arm over the years, I’m going to assume his arm will be worse than Mancini’s, even though outfield throws are a bit different from infield throws.    

All that said, generally the number of balls you catch or cut off in the outfield is more important than how well you throw.     If Mountcastle proves rangier than Mancini, he should be the better OF even if his arm is weaker.    
 

[ChosenOne21]

From my limited observations, Mancini has an okay arm, but good accuracy. Maybe the accuracy scares runners enough to make up for the fringe-average to average arm strength?

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Sight unseen it’s hard to judge, but Trey was -6 outs above average, 77th out of 92 qualified outfielders, despite starting only 83 games there.   In terms of jump, he was 86th out of 98.  That’s pretty awful and I’ll go with “what’s behind the curtain.”

I don’t pretend to argue that Mancini was a good outfielder, but I do agree that he is almost certainly better than Mountcastle. It’s curious that I get backlash every time I talk about how lousy Mountcastle is on defense, but then we have discussions like this one which is focusing on how Lousy Mountcastle is on defense.

I do not want Mancini in the outfield, And I do want to maximize Mountcastle’s value as much as possible. But if the guy is destined for first base, and we already have a plethora Of Legitimate outfield candidates, I think it is better to spend the time letting them develop their outfield prowess and let him develop at first base.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I don’t pretend to argue that Mancini was a good outfielder, but I do agree that he is almost certainly better than Mountcastle. It’s curious that I get backlash every time I talk about how lousy Mountcastle is on defense, but then we have discussions like this one which is focusing on how Lousy Mountcastle is on defense.

I do not want Mancini in the outfield, And I do want to maximize Mountcastle’s value as much as possible. But if the guy is destined for first base, and we already have a plethora Of Legitimate outfield candidates, I think it is better to spend the time letting them develop their outfield prowess and let him develop at first base.

There’s really no basis to judge whether Mountcastle can play a decent OF.    I haven’t read a single knowledgeable comment about it from anyone who’s seen him play.    I’ve seen one negative remark about his play at 1B, which I dutifully posted here when I read it a few months back.    

I think it’s pretty fair to assume that Mountcastle is more athletic than Mancini.   If not, the O’s wouldn’t have left him on the left side of the infield for 3+ seasons.   Whether that athleticism will make him a better OF than Mancini is unknown, but the bar is pretty low.     And I say that with respect to Mancini, who I think has worked hard to be the best he can be in the OF but really doesn’t have the tools to be average.    
 

[HowAboutThat]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

There’s really no basis to judge whether Mountcastle can play a decent OF.    I haven’t read a single knowledgeable comment about it from anyone who’s seen him play.    I’ve seen one negative remark about his play at 1B, which I dutifully posted here when I read it a few months back.    

I think it’s pretty fair to assume that Mountcastle is more athletic than Mancini.   If not, the O’s wouldn’t have left him on the left side of the infield for 3+ seasons.   Whether that athleticism will make him a better OF than Mancini is unknown, but the bar is pretty low.     And I say that with respect to Mancini, who I think has worked hard to be the best he can be in the OF but really doesn’t have the tools to be average.    
 

 I like Mancini. He’s a bad outfielder, but he is a better outfielder for having had experience at outfielding. Mountcastle may be a better athlete, but he’s starting from zero like Mancini did a couple of years ago. Even if he’s potentially better than Mancini, and is a better athlete, he might improve more quickly than Mancini did, but that wouldn’t change where they are right now.

I didn’t read anything about Mountcastle being bad at first base, but good heavens if you can’t play first base, then how can you play anything else? 

[SteveA]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Obviously, we just need to see Mountcastle in the outfield.   However, I have read nothing to suggest that he's any faster than Mancini.   Getting jumps and natural outfield instincts certainly make a difference and we have yet to see if Mountcastle has any.   I didn't think Reimold had those, meaning poor decision making when he had little time to make one.  I've always felt that Mancini got the most out of what he had to work with out there.   Not that that makes me want him in the outfield at all.   Optimally, we would have three real outfielders out there eventually.   Some combination of Hays, Diaz, Mullins, and Santander.   Maybe McKenna gets into the picture if he shows better in the minors.  Optimally, I think we are going to see that Mountcastle is better suited to 1B/DH, same as Mancini.   Stewart looks like another DH candidate and we already have Nunez who looked surprisingly bad at 1B after looking passable at 3B in 2018.

Someone mentioned the outfield of Anderson/Deveraux/Finley.   They didn't even hot much that year but they covered the outfield like a blanket.   

There were actually very few games where all 3 were in the outfield simultaneously.   We had Phil Bradley as a regular on that team.

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Obviously, we just need to see Mountcastle in the outfield.   However, I have read nothing to suggest that he's any faster than Mancini.   Getting jumps and natural outfield instincts certainly make a difference and we have yet to see if Mountcastle has any.   I didn't think Reimold had those, meaning poor decision making when he had little time to make one.  I've always felt that Mancini got the most out of what he had to work with out there.   Not that that makes me want him in the outfield at all.   Optimally, we would have three real outfielders out there eventually.   Some combination of Hays, Diaz, Mullins, and Santander.   Maybe McKenna gets into the picture if he shows better in the minors.  Optimally, I think we are going to see that Mountcastle is better suited to 1B/DH, same as Mancini.   Stewart looks like another DH candidate and we already have Nunez who looked surprisingly bad at 1B after looking passable at 3B in 2018.

Someone mentioned the outfield of Anderson/Deveraux/Finley.   They didn't even hot much that year but they covered the outfield like a blanket.   

Last year I figured out that Finley, Anderson and Devereaux never started a game together in the OF, and were only on the field together at any point in the game 7 times.    

[Frobby]

19 minutes ago, Philip said:

 I like Mancini. He’s a bad outfielder, but he is a better outfielder for having had experience at outfielding. Mountcastle may be a better athlete, but he’s starting from zero like Mancini did a couple of years ago. Even if he’s potentially better than Mancini, and is a better athlete, he might improve more quickly than Mancini did, but that wouldn’t change where they are right now.

I didn’t read anything about Mountcastle being bad at first base, but good heavens if you can’t play first base, then how can you play anything else? 

I believe the quote was that he was “not average” at 1B.

To your point about the learning curve, the interesting thing is that Mancini hasn’t really gotten better in the OF over time.   He was -5 outs above average in 2017, -10 in 2018, -7 last year, with roughly the same amount of playing time each year.    I remember in the 2017-18 offseason, I argued strenuously that we should expect Mancini to do a little better defensively the next year now that he had some experience.    That proved to be wrong, much to my chagrin.    That’s why I think Mountcastle might quickly surpass him despite having less experience.    But of course, we’ll have to see.    

Edit: the scout quote was: “His defense at first was not average, so he’s really going to have to hit.”  https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2019/12/part-two-a-scouts-take-on-os-prospects.html

[AnythingO's]

I might be mis-remembering but didn't either Tony or Luke comment that Mountcastle's arm strength was average but his footwork and throwing mechanics at 3rd were more the problem. 

[Legend_Of_Joey]

7 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I might be mis-remembering but didn't either Tony or Luke comment that Mountcastle's arm strength was average but his footwork and throwing mechanics at 3rd were more the problem. 

I'm not 100% sure on their comments, but when he was a shortstop and I saw him in Frederick, his arm was pretty low then. Lots of "lollipop" throws.

[Frobby]

29 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

I might be mis-remembering but didn't either Tony or Luke comment that Mountcastle's arm strength was average but his footwork and throwing mechanics at 3rd were more the problem. 

From his 2018 OH scouting report (written by Tony):   “His poor arm strength (30 arm), and long arm action doesn’t allow him to come in on the ball effectively from third base and there is little belief in the scouting community that Mountcastle will be able to play a major league third base effectively.”   https://www.orioleshangout.com/2018/11/07/ryan-mountcastle-3b-2018-3-prospect/

A Luke comment from 2017:  “I’d say Mountcastle at least the arm Mancini has if not better. Mancini seems to be a very accurate thrower though while Mountcastle has a weird arm slot and struggles to hit the target consistently.  Mountcastle is a more fluid athlete, at least at this point (he may not be as he ages, gains mass).”  https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/30244-assume-we-don’t-trade-manny-and-he-walks/page/7/&tab=comments#comment-2219396

And this from Luke from July 2019:   “this idea that he can't play defense is based on his weird infield arm action that is weak and inaccurate. He moves well, he's got good hands. He's going to be fine in LF or at 1B.”   https://forum.orioleshangout.com/forums/index.php?/topic/35598-trey-mancini-or-ryan-mountcastle/page/4/&tab=comments#comment-2496823