O's hope to lose 5 of their top 30 prospects by July

[Tony-OH]

25 minutes ago, OrioleDog said:

Here's an academic hypothetical for playing around with is next year's farm better or worse?

If the Royals offered Bobby Witt for the five guys in the OP, how many backflips would you do? 

Barring an immediate rousing player development success (Stowers looking like Baby Bellinger, Gunnar laying Chipper waste to Delmarva), pick 1-2 backfilling 2020's graduates (and injuries on the downside) probably will drive most of the delta between this year and next year's rankings.

I don't know if I'd trade all five for Witt. Witt had questions about his bat and although you can't take too much away from rookie league numbers, his lack of great success there didn't clear any of that up. 

Mountcastle and Hays alone have a lot of value to me and are much closer to the big leagues with Hays already having success there last September. 

There are players like Henderson, Hernaiz, Stowers, Rom and Watson that could take jumps next year and fill some of those gaps, even before considering next year's draft. Rodriguez and Hall should both still be top 100 prospects along with Rutschman and with the Orioles drafting #2 overall, you can expect a top 100 prospects being drafted as well.

[Tony-OH]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Stole?   I thought he was traded for a crab cake lunch with Elias.     

I’ll admit, there have been a number of times in the last month when I’ve wished Luke was still here chiming in on things.   But then I just tell myself, now he’s chiming in on things with an audience that can actually do something with that information.

It would be really cool if at some point towards the end of the season we could get Luke to give us some insights into what the job has been like.    

 

Until I get that he was stolen!

We'll see what Luke can talk about after he gets a season under his belt. I'm pretty sure he's NDA'd in pretty good though.

[Tony-OH]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He was about to lose his rookie status anyway.

And he was old for his level.

Yeah, but those top 100 prospects are hard to come by!

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Until I get that he was stolen!

We'll see what Luke can talk about after he gets a season under his belt. I'm pretty sure he's NDA'd in pretty good though.

Oh, I’d expect so!     But it might be smart PR for the O’s to let an alumnus of the top website following the team toss a few generalities our way, once he’s got a season under his belt.    

PS - I looked at Luke’s profile page to see if he’d visited the site since taking his new gig.    He was on here two hours ago!   Old habits die hard.
 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I’d expect so!     But it might be smart PR for the O’s to let an alumnus of the top website following the team toss a few generalities our way, once he’s got a season under his belt.    

PS - I looked at Luke’s profile page to see if he’d visited the site since taking his new gig.    He was on here two hours ago!   Old habits die hard.
 

So when we post ideas Luke is listening.

[Frobby]

4 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So when we post ideas Luke is snickering

Fixed that for you!

But in all fairness, Luke never condescended to anyone here, even when it was obvious that he knew much more than almost all of us about player evaluation (Tony and maybe a few posters excepted).

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Fixed that for you!

But in all fairness, Luke never condescended to anyone here, even when it was obvious that he knew much more than almost all of us about player evaluation (Tony and maybe a few posters excepted).

Snickering?  Are you saying that Luke is Betty White?

[hoosiers]

7 hours ago, Pickles said:

Ok. I'll walk away and apologize. I'm sorry if I misunderstood the OP.

Everyone is here to talk about the Os, our past, current issues, and our future.  We are all Os fans and most everyone here would enjoy an engaging discussion.

Generally, yes, everyone wants a good farm system and everyone is more concerned that the prospects actually pan out then the ranking of our system.  Without sounding too parental or cliché-bound, I would say that if you don't like a thread, then either don't participate or try to turn the discussion into one that you find interesting. 

I interpret the OP as capable of starting related, but different potential dialogues that we are likely losing a lot of valued (top 10-15) prospects to graduation this year and whether we can replenish those prospects (in quantity and quality) in the next year (through the draft, internationally and via trade).  Will our system be better next season compared to the one entering this season?  And will our relative ranking compared other franchises be higher, the same or lower?  I think those are interesting discussions (related to the Fangraphs thread that Frobby brings up) as well as a recent thread that discussed when the relative ranking of our farm system will peak in the years ahead due mostly to the graduation of DL Hall, GrayRod and AR.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, hoosiers said:

Everyone is here to talk about the Os, our past, current issues, and our future.  We are all Os fans and most everyone here would enjoy an engaging discussion.

Generally, yes, everyone wants a good farm system and everyone is more concerned that the prospects actually pan out then the ranking of our system.  Without sounding too parental or cliché-bound, I would say that if you don't like a thread, then either don't participate or try to turn the discussion into one that you find interesting. 

I interpret the OP as capable of starting related, but different potential dialogues that we are likely losing a lot of valued (top 10-15) prospects to graduation this year and whether we can replenish those prospects (in quantity and quality) in the next year (through the draft, internationally and via trade).  Will our system be better next season compared to the one entering this season?  And will our relative ranking compared other franchises be higher, the same or lower?  I think those are interesting discussions (related to the Fangraphs thread that Frobby brings up) as well as a recent thread that discussed when the relative ranking of our farm system will peak in the years ahead due mostly to the graduation of DL Hall, GrayRod and AR.

It should peak next offseason with the above names and the 1-2 pick. 

[murph]

18 hours ago, Philip said:

A farm is a bank. Prospects are assets. We spend them wisely, we will have a nice house.

As long as it is not J.R house, that house was not so nice when we had it. 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Oh, I’d expect so!     But it might be smart PR for the O’s to let an alumnus of the top website following the team toss a few generalities our way, once he’s got a season under his belt.    

PS - I looked at Luke’s profile page to see if he’d visited the site since taking his new gig.    He was on here two hours ago!   Old habits die hard.
 

Isn’t it normal for a guy to go visit the old digs once he gets famous? Yes, Luke is too good for us now,  but I’m sure every now and then he likes to drive through the old neighborhood and say to himself, “God I’m glad I left those days behind.“

 Maybe he will grace us with an autograph session now and then.

:-)

[Just Regular]

5 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

We'll see what Luke can talk about after he gets a season under his belt. I'm pretty sure he's NDA'd in pretty good though.

I hope he has an opt-out clause (to talk briefly) in the event of us choosing Nick Gonzales, who I think he had in Tier A despite some consensus elsewhere he's the fourth banana.  I'll be watching Friday to see if he's playing SS now that Ortiz is a pro.

[Frobby]

On 2/10/2020 at 9:48 AM, wildcard said:

Yet Elias seems to value having a minor league system that is ranked high.

I think this quote sums it up well:

The Orioles now own a No. 9 Baseball America organizational ranking, up from No. 22. The club has had two of its young international players ranked by Baseball America among the top 100 international signings since July 2, 2019.

Elias notes these rankings and feels it’s a positive for the Orioles.

“It’s not everything, but certainly it’s a barometer,” he said. “There are now multiple, credible organizations that rank farm systems and have prospect lists. When you look across four or five of them it starts to paint a picture. It doesn’t mean they will be right or wrong about everything. But with our farm system going from a consensus bottom 10 last year, in 2018, and now at this time being a consensus sort of nine to 14, I think there is something there. The fact that all the different rankings reflect that. But we’ve got to continue to keep working. It’s not the end-all, be-all. At the end of the day it’s about individual players getting up and filling spots on the team. And coming up with 25 guys that can make the playoffs for you. But on the whole, I think farm-system rankings are something we have to keep our eye on and be realistic about as we are going through a rebuilding process.”

https://www.masnsports.com/steve-melewski/2020/02/elias-on-hyde-mancini-on-leaderhip-ruiz-on-his-second-half.html

[Enjoy Terror]