Double A manager on Tillman

[El Gordo]

If you've never seen him pitch, how can you say who's right or wrong? Those of us who project him higher are going on the word of professional scouting services like Baseball America. You can trust Komminsk over them if you like. That doesn't mean we have to. Or that we're being silly (or worth your - worthless - condescension) by looking to what other folks have said.

And you project him higher based on what scouting reports? Tony seems to have a pretty good read on him and does not seem at odds with Komminsk. Look at Olson. Scouting reprts and MiL numbers would seem to make him a mid rotation ML SP. Watching him pitch this season raises serious questions about that. Scouts don't see a pitcher nearly as much as a guy like Komminsk does.

[murrayfan420]

Roch's quotes from Komminsk don't say 3rd starter - just sayin.

Just because Roch didn't put Komminksk direct quote in the article doesn't mean he didn't say that. When Roch said "Komminsk projects Bowie pitcher Chris Tillman, acquired in the Erik Bedard trade, as possibly a No. 3 starter in the majors." That means he told Roch that, and he just used that sentence as a way to keep the story going. You can't have a narrative without sentences like that.

[Lucky Jim]

And you project him higher based on what scouting reports? Tony seems to have a pretty good read on him and does not seem at odds with Komminsk. Look at Olson. Scouting reprts and MiL numbers would seem to make him a mid rotation ML SP. Watching him pitch this season raises serious questions about that. Scouts don't see a pitcher nearly as much as a guy like Komminsk does.

Just because scouts don't see him as much doesn't mean that what they see isn't valid - or more valid.

Your average season-ticket holder also sees him more than a scout. I think Komminsk is likely a great baseball guy. Doesn't mean that he's necessarily a great predictor of upside. They're different skills. Sometimes they coincide, sometimes they don't.

If the scouts at BA are calling him "one of the best pitching prospects in the minors" then that implies to me that Komminsk is - perhaps - downplaying Tillman's upside.

I've already explained why I think this isn't a big deal - which is that I think Komminsk is a "realist"/"pessimist" in his rhetoric.

No big deal. But simply calling Komminsk right and everyone else wrong - when you haven't seen Tillman pitch either - is as foolish as assuming Komminsk is wrong.

[LookinUp]

Tillman should start 09 in AA and stay there until he gets the walk rate way down. There are plenty of pitchers destined for AAA next year, so it's not like we have to promote him.

[hoosiers]

This is much ado about nothing, IMO.

As Tony has hinted, people project minor league pitchers into 1/2 types or guys with 1/2 ceiling way too often. Some baseball experts won't label a guy a 1/2 type until several successful years in the majors.

We'll see what Tillman becomes, but I have no issue with someone believing he will be a 3 right now - that seems the most realistic and likely scenario right now anyway.

[Lucky Jim]

Can somebody please explain to me how the following comments:

Can possibly be taken as anything but high praise?

It's the "possibly a No. 3" that people are uneasy about. Seems to suggest his upside is as a 3 - whether that's what Komminsk meant or not.

[Ruzious]

Just because Roch didn't put Komminksk direct quote in the article doesn't mean he didn't say that. When Roch said "Komminsk projects Bowie pitcher Chris Tillman, acquired in the Erik Bedard trade, as possibly a No. 3 starter in the majors." That means he told Roch that, and he just used that sentence as a way to keep the story going. You can't have a narrative without sentences like that.

No, we don't know that Komminsk actually said 3rd starter or if Roch inferred that from his comments - because he didn't quote him there and because he didn't specifically say that Komminsk said 3rd starter. We are left to assume, and you know what happens when people assume.

[Lucky Jim]

No, we don't know that Komminsk actually said 3rd starter or if Roch inferred that from his comments - because he didn't quote him there and because he didn't specifically say that Komminsk said 3rd starter. We are left to assume, and you know what happens when people assume.

It would be very bad journalism on Roch's part if he inferred "third starter" and wrote it as "Komminsk projects..."

[Ruzious]

It would be very bad journalism on Roch's part if he inferred "third starter" and wrote it as "Komminsk projects..."

Things get miscommunicated quite frequently, as we've seen this year. The fact that Roch did not quote him on that tells me not to assume. And I wouldn't call what anyone puts on a blog - journalism.

[Tony-OH]

Tony I see you mentioned Erbe when talking about starting pitching depth. I remember earlier in the season in a scouting report you said that you probably see him becoming a bullpen guy? Do you still see this as his destination or does he still have a shot to become a starter in the bigs?

My thought is that right now, I see him in the bullpen in the end, but that he does have the arm and ability to miss bats to suggest he still could remain a starter.

He's so young still that it's hard to judge him too harshly, but the two times I saw him this year his stuff did not overwhelm me. His velocity was way down 90-91 when I saw him and although his slider was decent at times, it wasn't consistent. He did however look like he was pitching better to location so that's a plus. I just think I'd rather have the 95-97 MPH power reliever then the guy I saw as a starter.

[Lucky Jim]

Why does every one of our prospects who starts at 95-96 end up pitching 90-92?

[Tony-OH]

I think some people get too caught up with the numbers when they see a projection.

Most people don't even know the true definition of each type of starter. To me, it's a lot easier and probably more accurate to say top of the rotation, middle of the rotation, back end of the rotation.

A top of the rotation guy is a guy who can command at least three pitches, two of which should be plus, can be counted for at least seven innings in 80% of his starts, and preferably misses bats when he needs to.

A middle of the rotation guy probably has three major league pitches with at least two being plus pitches and the ability to command his pitches. He should be able to get 6 or 7 innings in 80% of his starts.

A back of the rotation guy could have a mixture of several things but doesn't stand out at any. He most likely will either get you five strong innings or will be an innings eater guy who's going to give up runs but will keep you in games. Sinker ballers are good back of the rotation guys.

[murrayfan420]

Things get miscommunicated quite frequently, as we've seen this year. The fact that Roch did not quote him on that tells me not to assume. And I wouldn't call what anyone puts on a blog - journalism.

I don't want to turn this thread into an argument about journalism, but to suggest Roch isn't a journalist because his from of media happens to be a blog instead of a newspaper is ridiculous. 2008 isn't so bad, mind joining us?

Also, if he were to take only the quotes we saw in the blog post and turn that into him "projecting Tillman to be a no. 3 starter" then that would be irresponsible. I'm very confident he said that to Roch.

Whatever the case, I'm exciting for Tillmans' progress through the system regardless of what various pundits believe his ceiling is.

[murrayfan420]

I think some people get too caught up with the numbers when they see a projection.

Most people don't even know the true definition of each type of starter. To me, it's a lot easier and probably more accurate to say top of the rotation, middle of the rotation, back end of the rotation.

A top of the rotation guy is a guy who can command at least three pitches, two of which should be plus, can be counted for at least seven innings in 80% of his starts, and preferably misses bats when he needs to.

A middle of the rotation guy probably has three major league pitches with at least two being plus pitches and the ability to command his pitches. He should be able to get 6 or 7 innings in 80% of his starts.

A back of the rotation guy could have a mixture of several things but doesn't stand out at any. He most likely will either get you five strong innings or will be an innings eater guy who's going to give up runs but will keep you in games. Sinker ballers are good back of the rotation guys.

You forgot:

An Orioles rotation guy: Someone who may or may not have any plus pitches, without the ability to command any or get past the 5th inning in any game.

[Ruzious]

I don't want to turn this thread into an argument about journalism, but to suggest Roch isn't a journalist because his from of media happens to be a blog instead of a newspaper is ridiculous. 2008 isn't so bad, mind joining us?

Also, if he were to take only the quotes we saw in the blog post and turn that into him "projecting Tillman to be a no. 3 starter" then that would be irresponsible. I'm very confident he said that to Roch.

Whatever the case, I'm exciting for Tillmans' progress through the system regardless of what various pundits believe his ceiling is.

What the hell, dude? I didn't say Roch isn't a journalist. Blogging is NOT journalism.