Can someone explain to me the reasoning behind the shortened draft?

[DocJJ]

Why is MLB doing this?

What are the implications for small market franchises like the O's?

What are the implications for High School and college players?

 

[Can_of_corn]

9 minutes ago, DocJJ said:

Why is MLB doing this?

What are the implications for small market franchises like the O's?

What are the implications for High School and college players?

 

1. To save money.  Setting the groundwork for fewer minor league teams.
2. On the field?  Probably none.  Not like the O's are masters of hitting on late round picks.
3. The peripheral guys should go to school next year.

[hoosiers]

IMO, this decision is a combination of factors:

 - fewer players are needed with minor league contraction

 - some control/power issues between ownership and the players union

 - the heavy reduction in minor league games this year if the minor league season isn't scrapped entirely (why bring on these players when they might not even play)

 - setting up next year (possibly several years) for a very large pool of players who want to be drafted in MLB setting up a supply/demand imbalance that is likely to reduce signing bonuses.

 - there is no doubt in my mind that high school kids who in prior years would have held out for $750+k in signing bonuses are going to be begging their agents to get them drafted among these 160 or so picks for anything over $250k.  The past few years teams have used picks in rounds 6-10 mostly for senior signings anyway to enable overslot signings for some HSers.  I am not sure of the gaming going into this years draft such that there may be some senior signings in rounds four and five, but mostly expect the teams to draft HSers in these rounds who will sign for slot (when, again, they would have held out for more $ instead of going to college).

 - most teams leave most drafts with three to five high quality prospects with legit chances of making the majors so that won't change this year.

I think money has something to do with this for some teams, but not that much.  Teams may be saving a ballpark of $1M to sign 20+ fewer prospects.  It really doesn't make much economic sense.  Just in the last 10 years, the Os have drafted Josh Hader and Trey Mancini after the fifth round.  Those two produced about 6 WAR last year and over 13 WAR in their young, pre-free agent careers with many 2+ WAR years ahead for both.  So think of the total $ put out after round 5 for the last 10 years and look at the return on those two players alone and the return is pretty good.

[hoosiers]

Regarding the Os in particular, it is difficult to say how this will impact our draft.  As a team picking second in each round and, more importantly, as the team with the largest bonus pool AND as a team with a cutting edge front office who can find value later in the draft, I think a draft with more rounds would have enabled the Os to leave with incrementally more prospects than otherwise.  

That said, without getting fancy with gaming scenarios, the advantages above present the Os with the very real opportunity - perhaps even the expectation - to leave the draft with more talent than any other organization (certainly an opportunity to be in the top 3).  It will be interesting if we can save some $ on slot with our early picks to create some $ for our picks in rounds four and five.  It is a good thing the draft is over two days.  I think you will see a lot of bonus demands drop after Day  1 and we will be able to put the second overall pick on day 2 to strong use.  I think prospects/agents will call begging to get drafted.  

I think the fact that there are two top college hitting prospects at the top of most draft boards sets up this draft very well for the Os to take the Torkelson/Martin consolation prize and then grab multiple HSers.  Last year, we took two HSers in the first five rounds.  This year, I expect that number will increase.

[MachoMachadoMan]

JUCOs are going to be STACKED if baseball returns next spring. We'll see a huge surge in the number of 4-year college players entering the minors, too, because if I'm a college junior who would've gone 6-10, I may as well go back and try again next season instead of signing for $20k. 

[sylvester]

On 5/13/2020 at 10:42 AM, MachoMachadoMan said:

JUCOs are going to be STACKED if baseball returns next spring. We'll see a huge surge in the number of 4-year college players entering the minors, too, because if I'm a college junior who would've gone 6-10, I may as well go back and try again next season instead of signing for $20k. 

The players that don't get drafted out of high school can go to a 4 year college and get drafted next year.  The 3 year thing only applies to if they were taken when they were high school seniors.  That's why some kids go the JUCO route.  

[MountUrCastle]

On 5/11/2020 at 12:17 PM, DocJJ said:

Why is MLB doing this?

What are the implications for small market franchises like the O's?

What are the implications for High School and college players?

 

To save money on the draft, justify the loss of several minor league teams which will save even more money, because the health of the sport will always be second to revenue.