who should we draft at #30, 39?

[DrungoHazewood]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

To flat out say that in all situations it is "beyond stupid" to not pick the BPA is incredibly shortsighted.

Beyond stupid is probably overselling it, but every pick has a higher shot at success than every pick behind it. You can probably come up with edge cases and special circumstances with overslots or whatever that plausibly could make sense to take someone else.  But in general taking a guy you have graded 6th at #2 is a bad idea.  You're hoping that buying 50 lottery tickets is going to work out better than buying 150, and sometimes it does.  But in general it's pretty stupid.

Picking amateur baseball players is like stocks.  The difference between being a genius and being lucky is pretty hard to distinguish and may not even be real.  So if it were me I'd go with the consensus best player as per my scouts and analysts almost every time, and hope for the best.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Beyond stupid is probably overselling it, but every pick has a higher shot at success than every pick behind it. You can probably come up with edge cases and special circumstances with overslots or whatever that plausibly could make sense to take someone else.  But in general taking a guy you have graded 6th at #2 is a bad idea.  You're hoping that buying 50 lottery tickets is going to work out better than buying 150, and sometimes it does.  But in general it's pretty stupid.

Picking amateur baseball players is like stocks.  The difference between being a genius and being lucky is pretty hard to distinguish and may not even be real.  So if it were me I'd go with the consensus best player as per my scouts and analysts almost every time, and hope for the best.

I have no issue with your take.

Except I would have not included the word probably.

[Jammer7]

8 hours ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

My biggest issue with Veen as the #2 pick in this strategy is he's a high schooler. If we go with this strategy, it's likely to target at least one high upside, riskier high schooler at 30 or 39. In this scenario from Jammer we're taking three high school players. I get that Elias reportedly has a long leash, but we were hoping the window for a competitive team starts to open in 2022 when we're hoping Rutschman, Mountcastle, Hall, and Rodriguez are all on the ML roster and beginning to contribute. Gonzalez, Hancock, Kjerstad could all feasibly follow in short order as part of this core. I don't know if we want to come out of this draft with our hopes kicked entirely down to 2024 before we see anyone at OPACY.

 

Yeah, Veen was an example more than the only guy. Obviously, they think Kjerstad is the way to go. Probably had a lot to do with many factors, but they wanted to save some money for 30/39. 

[Number5]

Just now, Jammer7 said:

Yeah, Veen was an example more than the only guy. Obviously, they think Kjerstad is the way to go. Probably had a lot to do with many factors, but they wanted to save some money for 30/39. 

I can see Kjerstad over Veen if you were going to do this.  Figure the guys that we are likely looking at as potential over-slot guys at 30 and 39 are probably high school guys, so a college bat makes sense for us as the under-slot guy at #2.  I liked the Vanderbilt coach saying that the Orioles will have to replace a lot of windows in the warehouse with Kjerstad in the lineup.  Hope he's right!

[dbmillertime]

At what pick does Bitsko fall too that he seems like a lock for an over slot #30?