Where do the 2020 draftees fit into our Top 30?

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

We just took Kjerstad #2. So that factors into my rankings,

1 - AR 

2 - Kjerstad

3- GrayRod

4- Mountcastle

5 - DL Hall

6 - Hays

7 - Diaz

8 - Gunnar

9 - Harvey 

10 - Baumann

11 - Kremer

12 - Westburg

13 - Mayo

14 - Lowther

15 - Stowers

I think Kjerstad wil be somewhere 5-10. when they start posting updates. Westburg doesn’t start in the top 15 IMO

[hoosiers]

So, the first post-draft farm system ratings are out from Bleacher Report and it has the Os moved up to 11th with only Kjerstad in our top 10.  I think we are on a nice upswing and should benefit from picking at the top of the draft for two more seasons.

One can see the talent being amassed in Detroit, Seattle, Toronto and Tampa (still the top farm system) and see who is peering out over the two and three year horizon with us in the AL.

[Frobby]

Just now, hoosiers said:

So, the first post-draft farm system ratings are out from Bleacher Report and it has the Os moved up to 11th with only Kjerstad in our top 10.  I think we are on a nice upswing and should benefit from picking at the top of the draft for two more seasons.

One can see the talent being amassed in Detroit, Seattle, Toronto and Tampa (still the top farm system) and see who is peering out over the two and three year horizon with us in the AL.

Tampa’s system is ridiculous.    Also San Diego and the Dodgers.    We are doing better, but until we are getting an average or better complement of the Latino players, it’s very difficult to have an elite farm system.    We’re making good progress there but 2021 is probably our first shot at an above average class, and those guys won’t be in our upper minors for a few years after that.    So, for me I’m not expecting we could have a top 5 system until maybe 2023.

[hoosiers]

We might not get to a top 5 system entering 2023 if our top two pitchers, AR, Mountcastle graduate by 2023.  And we've taken a lot of college bats.  Baumler, Mayo, Hernaiz and possibly Henderson could be our plus prospects plus our draft picks in 21 and 22.

Difficult to tell where our upcoming J2 class will land.  We have two fringe top 30 guys and at least one other acclaimed likely signee for this year.  Seems like it might be somewhat average or worse, hopefully not bottom five.  I agree we should expect a considerable leap in 21 and hopefully middle of the league or better after that - which would be a significant achievement in four basically four years.

[MachoMachadoMan]

On 6/13/2020 at 2:23 PM, ChuckS said:

I don't think you can grade Kjerstad's current hit tool or power over Mountcastle's.  Maybe put a higher future power grade on Kjerstad.  Mountcastle just finished a season hitting .312 with 25 home runs in Triple A.  Hard to expect Kjerstad to do better than that in two years if he has even made it to Triple A at age 23. 

I wouldn't put Kjerstad's hit or power tool over Mountcastle, but I may put him ahead of Mountcastle on a rankings list due to position/defensive value alone. Kjerstad has the speed and arm to play corner outfield. Mountcastle's value will be entirely contingent on his bat since he appears destined to play 1st base. 

1) AR 2) Rodriguez 3) Kjerstad 4) Mountcastle 5) Hall. 

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

I wouldn't put Kjerstad's hit or power tool over Mountcastle, but I may put him ahead of Mountcastle on a rankings list due to position/defensive value alone. Kjerstad has the speed and arm to play corner outfield. Mountcastle's value will be entirely contingent on his bat since he appears destined to play 1st base. 

1) AR 2) Rodriguez 3) Kjerstad 4) Mountcastle 5) Hall. 

What have you seen that makes you think he can't play left field?

 

[MachoMachadoMan]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

What have you seen that makes you think he can't play left field?

 

He could, I guess. Trumbo played right field. That didn't mean he should. 

If we're optimistic that Hays, Diaz and Kjerstad are all ML contributors, they are all better defensive outfielders than Mountcastle. Also, none of them are legit ML centerfielders. Hays and Diaz could play CF but both are better suited for the corners. I don't have a problem with Mountcastle playing first base. We don't have another one in the system anywhere near being ML ready. Don't make him learn a new position. Let the kid rake. 

[ChuckS]

5 hours ago, MachoMachadoMan said:

I wouldn't put Kjerstad's hit or power tool over Mountcastle, but I may put him ahead of Mountcastle on a rankings list due to position/defensive value alone. Kjerstad has the speed and arm to play corner outfield. Mountcastle's value will be entirely contingent on his bat since he appears destined to play 1st base. 

1) AR 2) Rodriguez 3) Kjerstad 4) Mountcastle 5) Hall. 

Mountcastle should be able to play left field adequately and is a better runner than Kjerstad.  I don’t see a whole lot more defensive value coming from Kjerstad. A 40 runner at age 21 is a plodder. 
 

Kjerstad’s value will also be dependent on his bat. I haven’t seen a single scouting report that he provides any kind of defensive value. 

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

3 hours ago, ChuckS said:

Mountcastle should be able to play left field adequately and is a better runner than Kjerstad.  I don’t see a whole lot more defensive value coming from Kjerstad. A 40 runner at age 21 is a plodder. 
 

Kjerstad’s value will also be dependent on his bat. I haven’t seen a single scouting report that he provides any kind of defensive value. 

 

Out of curiosity, where are you seeing a 40 runner? 

As one example source, MLB pipeline has him graded as a 45 runner. Also, has him as a average defender with a plus arm.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/heston-kjerstad-677008

Hit - 45
Power - 60
Run - 45
Arm - 55
Field - 50
Overall - 55

[Jammer7]

9 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Out of curiosity, where are you seeing a 40 runner? 

As one example source, MLB pipeline has him graded as a 45 runner. Also, has him as a average defender with a plus arm.

https://www.mlb.com/prospects/draft/heston-kjerstad-677008

Hit - 45
Power - 60
Run - 45
Arm - 55
Field - 50
Overall - 55

He is not a 40 runner now, but I think I saw that grade in BA. He was probably a 40/45 in previous years, but this Spring he was running much better. He worked hard and it shows. Really improved his athleticism. Look at his Spring video where he beats out an average bunt and stretches a few singles into doubles. To me, he’s a 50/55 by eye without a stopwatch on him. 
 

And I think the power is a 70, and the overall hit tool is more in the 55 range. He improved his recognition and cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone. I believe he would have had a huge jump in rankings, like JJ Bleday, if the season did not end early. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

5 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

He is not a 40 runner now, but I think I saw that grade in BA. He was probably a 40/45 in previous years, but this Spring he was running much better. He worked hard and it shows. Really improved his athleticism. Look at his Spring video where he beats out an average bunt and stretches a few singles into doubles. To me, he’s a 50/55 by eye without a stopwatch on him. 
 

And I think the power is a 70, and the overall hit tool is more in the 55 range. He improved his recognition and cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone. I believe he would have had a huge jump in rankings, like JJ Bleday, if the season did not end early. 

I happily accept ratings that exceed those I quoted

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

He is not a 40 runner now, but I think I saw that grade in BA. He was probably a 40/45 in previous years, but this Spring he was running much better. He worked hard and it shows. Really improved his athleticism. Look at his Spring video where he beats out an average bunt and stretches a few singles into doubles. To me, he’s a 50/55 by eye without a stopwatch on him. 
 

And I think the power is a 70, and the overall hit tool is more in the 55 range. He improved his recognition and cut down on swinging at pitches out of the zone. I believe he would have had a huge jump in rankings, like JJ Bleday, if the season did not end early. 

You think he jumped from a 40 runner to a 50/55 runner?  In one offseason?  That's a huge jump right?

[Jammer7]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You think he jumped from a 40 runner to a 50/55 runner?  In one offseason?  That's a huge jump right?

I think the 40 grade was a bit low for previous years, but yes, he has improved his body a great deal. Probably from a 45 to a 55. I don't have a stopwatch on him, but my eyes see he is much more explosive in his movement. 

Dave Van Horn, his coach at Arkansas, said he had been working very hard to improve his explosiveness and overall athleticism. I have been watching him since he was a Freshman. I liked what I saw then, but he was below average athletically, although a good young power bat with average defense. He has really improved. All of these journalist rankings were based on previous years reports.

Take a look at the video from this year. Look back at past years video and you can see the tremendous improvement in his body and athleticism. 

 

[hoosiers]

I believe I am with most folks who re-rated our prospects with putting all six 2020 draft picks in our top 20 or 22.  I am listing the prospects in groups of five.  It will be interesting to see who produces what stats and where between Westburn, Servideo and Adam Hall.  I remain a big fan of Adam Hall and was hoping for a breakout year in the friendlier confines of Frederick after he put up pretty good numbers in DelMarva.

AR, GrayRod, DL Hall, Kjerstad, Mountcastle

Hays, Diaz, Bauman, Gunnar, Mayo

Lowther, Harvey, Westburg, Kremer, Hall

Baumler, Haskin, Servideo, Akin, Wells

Stowers, Rom, Hernaiz, Hanifee, McKenna

Zimmerman, Bannon, Stauffer, Pop, LRod

Because of high pick and spread it around/make every pick count 2020 plan from our FO, our prospect list has improved more than most teams.  Hard to believe an early 2019 pick like Stowers could be outside our top 20.  I was looking forward to seeing the adjustments/improvements made by Stowers last off-season.

Our farm system is beginning to show some real depth.  We can sprinkle in some international prospects soon.

Two interesting questions for another thread - when will the first Elias/Perez J2 prospect make our top 30?   When will the fist Elias/Perez J2 make our top 10?  Top 5?    

[Chuck A]

4 hours ago, hoosiers said:

I believe I am with most folks who re-rated our prospects with putting all six 2020 draft picks in our top 20 or 22.  I am listing the prospects in groups of five.  It will be interesting to see who produces what stats and where between Westburn, Servideo and Adam Hall.  I remain a big fan of Adam Hall and was hoping for a breakout year in the friendlier confines of Frederick after he put up pretty good numbers in DelMarva.

AR, GrayRod, DL Hall, Kjerstad, Mountcastle

Hays, Diaz, Bauman, Gunnar, Mayo

Lowther, Harvey, Westburg, Kremer, Hall

Baumler, Haskin, Servideo, Akin, Wells

Stowers, Rom, Hernaiz, Hanifee, McKenna

Zimmerman, Bannon, Stauffer, Pop, LRod

Because of high pick and spread it around/make every pick count 2020 plan from our FO, our prospect list has improved more than most teams.  Hard to believe an early 2019 pick like Stowers could be outside our top 20.  I was looking forward to seeing the adjustments/improvements made by Stowers last off-season.

Our farm system is beginning to show some real depth.  We can sprinkle in some international prospects soon.

Two interesting questions for another thread - when will the first Elias/Perez J2 prospect make our top 30?   When will the fist Elias/Perez J2 make our top 10?  Top 5?    

I would think that Elio Prado is in the top 30.  I've heard a lot of good things.  Can't wait to actually see for myself.