It's time for the OH to turn the page

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

wildcard's eternal optimism is not infectious.

You still  need to wear a mask and stand 6 feet from the keyboard though.

[TommyPickles]

Could this team make the playoffs in a typical 162-game season with a 10-team playoff format? Absolutely not.

Could this team go 29-31 and make the 16-team playoff? Yea, I think they could.  

 

Let's assume they finish their series sweep of the Nats.  They'd be 8-7 after playing 25% of the season.  They could probably go 21-24, or maybe even 20-25, to finish the season and nab an 8 seed.  Then you get the crapshoot of a three-game playoff series...

 

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Could this team make the playoffs in a typical 162-game season with a 10-team playoff format? Absolutely not.

Could this team go 29-31 and make the 16-team playoff? Yea, I think they could.  

 

Let's assume they finish their series sweep of the Nats.  They'd be 8-7 after playing 25% of the season.  They could probably go 21-24, or maybe even 20-25, to finish the season and nab an 8 seed.  Then you get the crapshoot of a three-game playoff series...

 

And then you get a five game series, and then a pair of seven game series...

[TommyPickles]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

And then you get a five game series, and then a pair of seven game series...

Not saying I'm expecting a World Series win, but I think the O's have a reasonable chance of making this year's wacky playoffs.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, TommyPickles said:

Not saying I'm expecting a World Series win, but I think the O's have a reasonable chance of making this year's wacky playoffs.

Fangraphs says 6.7%.  Seems about right.

[esmd]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:36 AM, Can_of_corn said:

I think the team is bereft of ML talent and is merely playing reasonably well in a small sample size.  If they somehow get to the playoffs they have no chance to win the WS.

This.  Stick to the plan.  Trade anyone they can of value that is older than 28 or 29.

[Dipper9]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:47 AM, TINSTAAPP said:

Wasn't this team just swept by the Marlins AAA squad three days ago?

Yes, but our pitching was very good in that series.  The bats just went cold.  I'd rather lose low scoring pitching duels than the blowouts from a year ago.  I agree with Wildcard, this team is improved, and as long as they play like a contender, I won't dismiss anything in a season that is this short.  Playing .500 for two months is not the strangest thing that has happened in 2020!  

[eddie83]

If you are super optimistic ask yourself this question. Are the better than the Rays? 

I said no freaking way. So they need to get one of the two WC’s left. The West looks weak. I assume A’s and Astros get top 2 spots. Angels have started slow. 

So you have the Jays, Red Sox, one of Cle/CWS, and Texas.  Have to finish in top 2 of that 5 team mix. I left out KC, Seattle, LAA and Detroit for now and I know they have started out well. 

My guess is one WC spot goes to the AL East and one to the Central. West only gets two teams. 

[ChipTait]

Unless it's the Yankees or Dodgers, whoever wins the World Series will be considered a "fluke."  I'd like to see the O's sneak into the dance and surprise some folks by advancing to round two.  Then they can lose, and go home with heads held high.  It would be a great experience for the young guys to taste the postseason.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, ChipTait said:

Unless it's the Yankees or Dodgers, whoever wins the World Series will be considered a "fluke."  I'd like to see the O's sneak into the dance and surprise some folks by advancing to round two.  Then they can lose, and go home with heads held high.  It would be a great experience for the young guys to taste the postseason.  

The important young guys won't be on the roster.

[HowAboutThat]

The elephant in the room is our schedule. We have to play the Yankees a time or two yet, and unless we can beat them once in a while, It’s just a pipe dream, and not the fun kind either.

[Just Regular]

28 minutes ago, ChipTait said:

Unless it's the Yankees or Dodgers, whoever wins the World Series will be considered a "fluke."  I'd like to see the O's sneak into the dance and surprise some folks by advancing to round two.  Then they can lose, and go home with heads held high.  It would be a great experience for the young guys to taste the postseason.  

I saw a BS perspective recently that 1981, featuring IIRC such perks as the Reds having the best record but not qualifying for the postseason, genuinely "counted" because it was a Dodgers-Yankees World Series.

[Slappy]

On 8/9/2020 at 10:36 AM, Can_of_corn said:

I think the team is bereft of ML talent and is merely playing reasonably well in a small sample size.  If they somehow get to the playoffs they have no chance to win the WS.

Being negative is always easy, because there is no cost when you are wrong.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Slappy said:

Being negative is always easy, because there is no cost when you are wrong.

What does that mean?

What's the cost of Wildcard's optimism?

Also, I don't think what I said constituted being negative.  That's an honest appraisal of the team.    Not much of what we are seeing looks sustainable.

[Tony-OH]

I appreciate Wildcards's enthusiasm and optimism.

This season is such a wildcard because of all the variables that really anything could happen and I wouldn't be overly surprised.

Saying that, there is no reality where this is the beginning of a sustainable winning core. 

There is just as much of a chance of this team losing ten straight games as they do of keep playing .500 ball the rest of this season. 

As Drungo has point out, there are some guys who have started out this season way above their carer norms. Even if you believe Severino, Ruiz, Alberto and Nunez are breaking out as they enter their primes, does anyone think Cobb, Milone and Wojo are going to keep pitching to their current ERAs? Cobb maybe since it seems his splitter has come back, but I'm not buying long term sustainability on Milone and Hyde has used Wojo right but not letting him go more than twice through an order.