If only Elias hadn't traded the 11th best player in baseball (Bundy) for next to nothing

[Aristotelian]

By the way, I did a quick check and Mattson is in Bowie on the Alternate Site Roster. To me that is a signal that the O's wanted to keep his development going and must think highly of him. Unfortunately it is hard to know exactly what we have gotten back from a lot of these deals with the minors on hold but seems like the Orioles see "something" not "next to nothing".

http://www.milb.com/roster/index.jsp?cid=3282

[ScGO's]

2 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

What do you mean that Elias has been given more to work with? He inherited a terrible farm system with no prospects outside of Mountcastle, and one of (perhaps the) worst contract in all of baseball history. The one thing he has been given is relative autonomy, and that may in the long run be more valuable.

I don't know that DD would have had the stomach for a total rebuild. His MO seemed to be to try to compete every year, albeit without trading top prospects. Aside from Manny, Bundy, Harvey, Mountcastle, etc, he pretty much gutted the system. In the process we lost guys like Eduardo, Davies, Hader. He never seemed to consider trading Manny earlier and instead focused on prolonging the window. Of course, we will never know how much of that was DD and how much was directive from ownership. 

More autonomy is what I mean, less restrictions.  I think Dan would have liked to play the intl market and build an analytics dept.

[OFFNY]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

I think if we can all agree on one thing other than Chris Davis, it might be that Bundy wasn't going to turn it around here. Similar to how Arrieta wasn't going to evolve into the dominant starter he became in Chicago while wearing an Orioles uniform.

It's too early to tell what the return is on the Bundy trade, that's something we should be able to agree on, too.

I feel like a lot of the times here, we throw our hands up and go, "UGH!  Arrieta, how could we let him get away?  Now Bundy?  And Little Yaz? How can we keep whiffing on trades like this?!?!" But I'm pretty sure this is not a unique sports fan experience. That if you were to track down a diehard message board of the Colorado Rockies or some other offbeat team, they'd have similar sob stories of the guys that got away and how much better off they'd be if they didn't make those trades.  

Elias is fine. He's not going to "win" every trade. Some guys are going to get away and find success elsewhere, just like some guys are going to be sent here who'll end up blossoming. Ultimately what matters is if the franchise is moving forward. Our system is better than what it was when he took over. He's started an international program that didn't exist before he arrived, and it'll take a long time for some of those guys to surface. He's got a better plan than DD seemed to.  

 

o

 

Ugh !!! Why did the Mets trade Nolan Ryan for Jim Fregosi ??? ...... and Amos Otis for Joe Foy ??? ...... and Rusty Staub for Mickey Lolich ??? ...... 

 

o

[wildcard]

So a lot of posters seem to think that Elias was wrong or might have been wrong to trade Bundy.   After the 2021 season he will be a FA.  How many here want to sign Bundy for 5/100m?    How many would want to keep Bundy through his walk year next year and let him walk without getting anything in return?

Bundy had been with the O's for several years and his velocity kept getting worse.    Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expect different results.   Elias saw Bundy  was two years from FA and pull the trigger on a trade.  He probably was not getting better in Baltimore or the AL East.

[Can_of_corn]

17 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

More autonomy is what I mean, less restrictions.  I think Dan would have liked to play the intl market and build an analytics dept.

Shouldn't he have been able to fight for that?  That's part of the job right?

[Aristotelian]

17 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Shouldn't he have been able to fight for that?  That's part of the job right?

Not when Brady is his boss.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Not when Brady is his boss.

That was random, unproven and irrelevant.

To some degree the Orioles failures on those fronts during his tenure fall on him.  Part of his job was convincing ownership to spend money efficiently.  He wasn't the fry guy at Wendy's.

[Moose Milligan]

54 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So a lot of posters seem to think that Elias was wrong or might have been wrong to trade Bundy.   After the 2021 season he will be a FA.  How many here want to sign Bundy for 5/100m?    How many would want to keep Bundy through his walk year next year and let him walk without getting anything in return?

Bundy had been with the O's for several years and his velocity kept getting worse.    Insanity is doing the same thing over and over again and expect different results.   Elias saw Bundy  was two years from FA and pull the trigger on a trade.  He probably was not getting better in Baltimore or the AL East.

Bundy would have to have an incredible 2021 across a full 162 game slate to command 5/100.

But I really wouldn't want him back here, no matter the cost.  He's gone to a weaker division, better ballpark for pitching...I'm not saying his success is due to those things this year but they couldn't hurt.  

[survivedc]

3 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

If Smith ends up being a 4A player the deal would look really bad later. I dont care that he just blew a lead. With Castro you get a hard throwing guy that struggles with control. Some games he looks brilliant and some games he will look lost. A good manager will exploit that when he's on and have a quick hook when he's not.

Saying hes not good is an exaggeration that your using to make your argument. There are many MLB relievers who are worse

Smith having the potential to be a back of the rotation starter has more value to a winning Orioles team than a guy that is a suspect reliever who is a FA in 2 years. And I liked Castro.

Also, the managers quick hook doesn’t exist anymore.

[Philip]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Part of being an armchair GM is believing that if you do this one weird thing that your team will win all the trades and never let anyone go who will then have some success somewhere else.  Every team has players who leave and go on to success elsewhere.  Look at the 2020 Orioles.  Santander was left unprotected in the Rule 5 and the O's scooped him up.  Severino was waived by the Nats.  Anyone in baseball could have had Iglesias for $3M.  Alberto was waived by the Yanks and the Giants (and Orioles!) in the space of a few months.  The Braves waived Rio Ruiz.  The O's picked up Paul Fry for international slot money from Seattle (who happen to have a 6.30 bullpen ERA this year).

I think that the Orioles of the last 20 odd years have had relatively few players leave and then go on to success elsewhere because they've had relatively little talent in general for much of that period.

Hmm that’s an interesting thought. You’d have to define “success,” but Andrew Triggs and Parker Bridwell certainly had meaningful success, however brief, with their new clubs. TJ McFarland has done well with the Dbacks and now Oakland after we let him go. Miguel Gonzalez was tossed-at a time when we didn’t even have five starters, Grrr-and immediately picked up by the White Sox, and he gave them a good season. Oliver Drake has done acceptably since being let go. Nelson Cruz has done ok( But Wei Yen Chin has not)

Meh. It’s the old regime. Let’s focus on the new regime.

Mike will never make a Davies-for-Parra trade. Ever. He will never trade draft picks for salary relief. And he won’t sign a half-dozen DH types while ignoring pitching needs.
He may “lose” the occasional trade. The other GMs aren’t stupid. But he’ll never make a stupid trade. 

[Aristotelian]

37 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That was random, unproven and irrelevant.

To some degree the Orioles failures on those fronts during his tenure fall on him.  Part of his job was convincing ownership to spend money efficiently.  He wasn't the fry guy at Wendy's.

Nobody can "prove" what it was like inside the warehouse either way but there were plenty of stories about what it is like. The GM job is whatever ownership says it is. A good owner would say that it is your job to disagree with me in the best interest of the club, but we do not know that Angelos was a good owner. In fact, lots of evidence to the contrary.  

[survivedc]

3 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

What do you mean that Elias has been given more to work with? He inherited a terrible farm system with no prospects outside of Mountcastle, and one of (perhaps the) worst contract in all of baseball history. The one thing he has been given is relative autonomy, and that may in the long run be more valuable.

Not sure how you come up with “no prospects.” There were 2 guys ahead of Mountcastle on the prospect list acquired by Duquette. In fact, pretty much all the players fans are excited about now (including Hays, Mountcastle, Santander, Akin, Kremer) were brought in by DD.

In two drafts Elias has seemingly done a fantastic job adding depth to the farm system in crucial areas and we have seen a number of prospects improve. But to act like the increase in overall ranking is solely due to Elias is crazy.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Nobody can "prove" what it was like inside the warehouse either way but there were plenty of stories about what it is like. The GM job is whatever ownership says it is. A good owner would say that it is your job to disagree with me in the best interest of the club, but we do not know that Angelos was a good owner. In fact, lots of evidence to the contrary.  

Oh no, he had a tough to deal with owner!

He still should have impressed upon him that a different allocation of the same resources would lead to a superior result. 

And to not sign Davis to that contact.

[Roll Tide]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

Smith having the potential to be a back of the rotation starter has more value to a winning Orioles team than a guy that is a suspect reliever who is a FA in 2 years. And I liked Castro.

Also, the managers quick hook doesn’t exist anymore.

Castro had 4.34 ERA in 6 seasons pitching in the pen ...So lets not pretend that he's horrible.

I will be more interested in the other component to the deal and think that its pretty much a wash at this point. If Smith ends up being a 5+ ERA 5th starter or long man I am sure how much value that will have on our next winning team. But perhaps your right!

I am not a big Castro fan and dont care if he's here or not. But, I'm not convinced that the trade is the big win that some of you think it is! And as I mentioned to SG, I could give a rats a-hole about the money saved this year or the $3million next year that will be added to the Peter Angelos Inheritance fund that will never be seen again.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, survivedc said:

Smith having the potential to be a back of the rotation starter has more value to a winning Orioles team than a guy that is a suspect reliever who is a FA in 2 years. And I liked Castro.

Also, the managers quick hook doesn’t exist anymore.

Really?   Aren't starting pitchers averaging fewer innings in the last 2 or 3 years than in any era in the history of baseball?