Tracking Ex Oriole Thread

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Let's say Manny would have 300 homers over the next decade in a neutral park.  150 at home, 150 on the road.  For him to lose 50 homers, that would be 100 at home, 150 on the road.  For him to lose 100 that would be 50 at home 150 on the road. 

The most extreme home run split I know of (in the live ball era) is Mel Ott.  He had 323 homers at home (Polo Grounds), and 188 on the road.  63% of homers at home.  If Manny had 63% of his homers on the road in this hypothethical situation he'd have 150 on the road and 88 at home.  That would mean he "lost" 62 homers to his home park.

According to multiple sites PETCO has a HR park factor of about 86. I think the calculation works out that Mel Ott's Polo Grounds factor was 63.  Meaning Manny should lose 14% of his neutral park home home runs to PETCO, or .14 x 150 = 21 homers.  

If he'd stayed in Baltimore he probably would have gained 10 or 15 compared to neutral.  So... OPACY Manny hits 315, neutral park Manny hits 300, and PETCO Manny hits about 279.

Somebody check my math...

OK, I’ll accept that.  So call it 36 homers, the difference between PETCO and OPACY.    That’s still pretty material.   

[OFFNY]

o

 

Oliver Drake threw 2 shutout innings in the Rays' 4-0 win over the Tigers yesterday.

 

https://www.espn.com/mlb/boxscore?gameId=401075653

 

o

[Going Underground]

Kevin Gausman got rocked again. Last two games in 1 inning gave up 8 earned runs. Yesterday,5 innings and  seven runs. Now 2-5 with a 6.15 ERA.

Manny can always opt out and go to a more hitter friendly ballpark. 

[Frobby]

Manny’s latest web gem:  https://www.mlb.com/video/machado-s-incredible-diving-catch

I think San Diego’s announcers are awful.  

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Going Underground said:

Kevin Gausman got rocked again. Last two games in 1 inning gave up 8 earned runs. Yesterday,5 innings and  seven runs. Now 2-5 with a 6.15 ERA.

Manny can always opt out and go to a more hitter friendly ballpark. 

Where are all the posters who were ready to conclude we traded away a Cy Young award candidate who just needed better coaching/defense to show it?

[Aglets]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where are all the posters who were ready to conclude we traded away a Cy Young award candidate who just needed better coaching/defense to show it?

I was pretty consistent last year that although Gausman was showing good results in Atlanta his underlying peripherals were not great.   I was expecting a regression this year....although it seems like this is a particularly bad one.

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Aglets said:

I was pretty consistent last year that although Gausman was showing good results in Atlanta his underlying peripherals were not great.   I was expecting a regression this year....although it seems like this is a particularly bad one.

He’s almost always been inconsistent in the first half of the season, then gets his act together. But viewed as a whole, his performance is disappointing.   Still topping out at 98 yesterday.   He’s just not that good.   

[interloper]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

He’s almost always been inconsistent in the first half of the season, then gets his act together. But viewed as a whole, his performance is disappointing.   Still topping out at 98 yesterday.   He’s just not that good.   

From a local Atlanta site:

Quote

Gausman relied heavily on his fastball and splitter, while his slider has been more a rarity throughout the year 

Sound familiar? He's a two-pitch pitcher.

[glenn__davis]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

Where are all the posters who were ready to conclude we traded away a Cy Young award candidate who just needed better coaching/defense to show it?

Don't worry, they'll be back when he has a strong 2nd half as he usually does.  Unfortunately for him the 1st half of a season counts too.

Another name from the past, Tobias Myers, is 5-1 with a 2.83 ERA as a 20-year hold in high A.  The BB/9, K/9 and WHIP numbers are all pretty pedestrian so not too worried about that one just yet, but I'll still be keeping an eye on him.

[TonySoprano]

 

[Enjoy Terror]

On 6/6/2019 at 9:15 AM, Frobby said:

Where are all the posters who were ready to conclude we traded away a Cy Young award candidate who just needed better coaching/defense to show it?

I’m still here.

Im not wrong for concluding that the Orioles managed to screw up Gausman prior to sending him to Atlanta.

But I suppose I’d rather be wrong than living through another Arrieta.

[DrungoHazewood]

42 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

 

What's a "plug-in-play contract" player?

There have been 287 players in MLB history to reach 1000 RBI.  In value they range from Dante Bichette (5.7 career WAR) to Bonds and Ruth at 162.  Median is 51 wins.  109 of the 287 are in the Hall.  Seven active 1000 RBI players: Kemp, Encarnacion, Cruz, Braun, Cano, Cabrera, Pujols.  The last three will probably go to the Hall.

Eight players, including BJ Surhoff, got to 1000 RBI with an OPS+ under 100.  Tommy Corcoran, a shortstop active from 1890-1907 got to 1000 RBI despite a 75 OPS+ and no seasons with more than 94 RBI.

So if you retire with 1000+ RBI that gives you about a 40% chance of having had a HOF career.

[Redskins Rick]

On 6/6/2019 at 9:15 AM, Frobby said:

Where are all the posters who were ready to conclude we traded away a Cy Young award candidate who just needed better coaching/defense to show it?

I agree, totally.

I said at the time, that we didnt give up too much, when we traded him away.

Saddens me to think that, as him and Bundy was supposed to be our 1-2 punch for decades to come.

[Bubble Buddy]

On 6/6/2019 at 9:31 AM, Frobby said:

He’s almost always been inconsistent in the first half of the season, then gets his act together. But viewed as a whole, his performance is disappointing.   Still topping out at 98 yesterday.   He’s just not that good.   

I thought he could put it all together. But the further we get along, the clearer it is that he is just a two pitch pitcher and that was basically the scouting report out of college. And even the splitter isn't the most reliable second pitch. When he has the slider going, he can be dominant. But he's never developed it consistently and doesn't look like he will. 

Edited June 7, 2019 by Bubble Buddy

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, TonySoprano said:

 

 

8 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

What's a "plug-in-play contract" player?

I don’t know.   But I doubt there are many teams that would pull the plug on a consistent player like Markakis based on one cold month.   His overall OPS is still a respectable .764.    He’s been worth 0.9 rWAR this year.  

That said, the Braves have several good young outfielders and I do think Nick may start to lose playing time if he doesn’t break out of his slump fairly soon.