Serious question: could Means become a TOR starter?

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

He didn't exceed six innings pitched in any start this year.  Last season he pitched seven five times.  He never exceeded seven.

The demands on a TOR guy are not what they once were but I think the occasional eight or even nine inning start is still expected.

The way I look at it, you have TOR starters and aces.  I think what you are describing is an ace.

Means won’t be an ace...he isn’t the elite of the elite.

But he can be a TOR guy depending on a few factors.

I do think it’s fair to question whether he can throw 200 innings.  I think 170-185 innings is more realistic.

[joelala]

I think John will settle into more of mid rotation role and hopefully give us a chance every time he takes the bump. Someone like Kyle Hendricks, your #3 starter for years. 

[weams]

Let's get a look at him from this angle. 

 

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

The way I look at it, you have TOR starters and aces.  I think what you are describing is an ace.

Means won’t be an ace...he isn’t the elite of the elite.

But he can be a TOR guy depending on a few factors.

I do think it’s fair to question whether he can throw 200 innings.  I think 170-185 innings is more realistic.

I agree, unless and until he proves otherwise.

[ArtVanDelay]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

His FIP was 5.59 and his xFIP was 4.45.

His ridiculously unlucky 21.8% HR/FB killed his FIP this year.

[Bahama O's Fan]

TOR is just the best pitcher in your rotation correct? Wasn't he the TOR last year? Not sure who that was this year? Means or Cobb?

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Bahama O's Fan said:

TOR is just the best pitcher in your rotation correct? Wasn't he the TOR last year? Not sure who that was this year? Means or Cobb?

I read TOR starter as a top 30 guy in MLB.

[Bahama O's Fan]

Okay. I think people use these terms differently. TOR means top of the rotation. I then always used it as the best pitcher in your rotation 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Bahama O's Fan said:

Okay. I think people use these terms differently. TOR means top of the rotation. I then always used it as the best pitcher in your rotation 

Some of the O's historic "TOR" guys wouldn't be a #3 on a good team.

I don't think anyone really questions that Means could be the best starter on next season's staff.

[thezeroes]

A TOR to me is one of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.  Some teams may have more than two of these while some have none.

An ACE would be the top twenty of those 60 pitchers IMO.

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, thezeroes said:

A TOR to me is one of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.  Some teams may have more than two of these while some have none.

An ACE would be the top twenty of those 60 pitchers IMO.

I’m a little stricter.   I want a TOR to be worthy of a top 2 spot in a decent rotation over at least a few years.    Not that he has to perform to no. 2 standards every single year, but most of the time.   When I think of a TOR, John Lackey and AJ Burnett come to mind.    Maybe a little lower down than that is still TOR.

[Aristotelian]

3 hours ago, thezeroes said:

A TOR to me is one of the top 60 pitchers in baseball.  Some teams may have more than two of these while some have none.

An ACE would be the top twenty of those 60 pitchers IMO.

Ace is like top 5 to me. You pretty much expect to win every night no matter who you are facing. Bieber, Cole, Verlander, Degrom, Scherzer. Outside of those guys I can't think of any I would call Ace nowadays. Top 20 would be so called Number 1's but not every Number 1 is an Ace, IMO. 

[DrungoHazewood]

On 9/26/2020 at 11:55 PM, wildcard said:

Sure

Exactly.  Sure, John Means could go 17-7 a year for each of the next 14 years.  Or maybe he goes 19-33 the rest of his career.  Yes, he's looked really good at times, not quite so good at others.

I did a query of guys who had 100-400 innings pitched and a FIP between 4.25-4.75 through age 27 in the last 100 years.  Means is kind of in the middle of that.  Some names I recognize: Andrew Miller, Boof Bonser, Joe Saunders, Rodrigo Lopez, Wade LeBlanc, Wei-Yin Chen, Rich Hill, J.A. Happ, Jason Grimsley, Ed Farmer, Mike Bielecki, Garrett Stephenson, Charlie Hough, Al Leiter, Mark Redman, Tim Wakefield, Willis Roberts, Paul Byrd, Jerry Don Gleaton, Tyler Wilson, Gene Harris, Tim Worrell, Jim Konstanty, Dave DeBusschere, Greneral Crowder.

Not too many top-of-the-rotation starters there, but who knows?

[jerios55]

On 9/27/2020 at 8:56 AM, Frobby said:

Too soon to know about the first issue.  His minor league track record was very good: 27, 27, 26 and 28 starts in a MiL environment where 28 is basically the max over a 140 game season.    

I take your point about getting deep into games.   I was watching in the 6th, Means still working on a no hitter at the time and Garceau mentioned he was at 93 pitches.    How does your pitch count get that high when you’ve allowed one baserunner and still working in the 6th?   Still, TOR innings per start seems to be a moving target these days.  I count 8 pitchers this year who’ve made 10 starts and thrown 6+ innings per start.   There’s only 18 pitchers in MLB who qualify for the ERA title!  (That does not include innings from yesterday or the upcoming games today, so that number will increase, but still...)
 

9 of 18 outs were K's.  As I watched there were several deeper counts and felt like there was more work than the no hitter suggested.  Still looked good, but no quick innings based on pitch counts.

[jamalshw]

The results for much of last year put him there and he has a bit more velocity along with a solid end in 2020. That said, I'm very hesitant to go there. I would honestly be quite happy if he gives us a solid mid-rotation option for the next several years. That would allow him to be a dependable anchor in the rotation as Akin and Kremer get a full year next year and we start introducing Hall and Grayson to the mix in the next couple seasons (along with Baumann, Lowther, Smith, etc.).