Rebuild mode or Sell mode?

[Roll Tide]

11 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Machado doesn't play short for the Padres.

And I asked how much more they would have to offer you.

On one hand you have a playoff team on the west coast who is making big moves and on the other you have an East coast team who is in year four of win s don't matter with no end in sight.  I'd have to really prefer playing short over second.

 

I don’t know how much extra I would pay. But, in a normal year we have plenty of room since our payroll is so low. Let the, get a number from the Padres and bring it to me. Ask what it will take to sign it. Assuming it would be a 4-5 year deal and offer him an extra 2-3 million total.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

 

I don’t know how much extra I would pay. But, in a normal year we have plenty of room since our payroll is so low. Let the, get a number from the Padres and bring it to me. Ask what it will take to sign it. Assuming it would be a 4-5 year deal and offer him an extra 2-3 million total.

You misunderstand me.

You are Kim.

You have a 4/25 offer on the table from the Padres, what would the O's have to offer you to go to Baltimore instead? 

Would you go play in Baltimore for an extra 2-3M?

I wouldn't.

You'd have to go north of 30 before I'd seriously start considering it.

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

You misunderstand me.

You are Kim.

You have a 4/25 offer on the table from the Padres, what would the O's have to offer you to go to Baltimore instead? 

Would you go play in Baltimore for an extra 2-3M?

I wouldn't.

You'd have to go north of 30 before I'd seriously start considering it.

Who knows what he would take...We’ve had a couple guys come here from over there. 
 

So do you approach every opportunity with ...so and so team is interested in player X ....so why bother because we’d have to overpay or they’d fine living in that area over ours ....blah blah blah

If you feel that way we might as well just shut the team down.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Who knows what he would take...We’ve had a couple guys come here from over there. 
 

So do you approach every opportunity with ...so and so team is interested in player X ....so why bother because we’d have to overpay or they’d fine living in that area over ours ....blah blah blah

If you feel that way we might as well just shut the team down.

I asked (repeatedly) what you would take in his shoes.

I'm in favor of at least inquiring after these guys but I wouldn't pay Kim in excess of 30 million on top of the posting fee.

For most players Baltimore is going to be a considerably less attractive destination when compared to other cities.  That's reality.

As for other players coming over from Korea, I bet that Hyun-Soo Kim, Suk-min Yoon and Seong-Min Kim have nothing but good things to say about the O's.

[ThomasTomasz]

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You don't need 4+ years of top 4 draft picks to rebuild.

When you factor in what exactly needed to be rebuilt in Baltimore, yes, you do.  Consistently one of the worst farm systems out there.  A complete lack of ability to develop a "top of the rotation" starting pitcher- the only ones in my lifetime are Mike Mussina and Erik Bedard, and really, Bedard is stretching that definition a bit.  Hardly any analytics department to speak of, and a lack of infrastructure in Latin America.  

If you want a two year rebuild, you might get what we had from 2012-2016.  But look at the Padres and what they were able to do with their collection of talent- some of it came up the ranks.  They signed Machado and Hosmer.  They are now trading Wave 2 prospects for legitimate players and going all-in. Our teams in 2012-16 didn't have that kind of prospect capital to trade, and those that we did trade away ended up biting us.  

Considering the state of the Orioles when Elias took over, he deserves all of the time in the world to get this right.  We're making inroads in Latin America, something Duquette promised to do but never could.  Elias has revamped the development system, including firing/reassigning some long-term guys who I have to think were solely employed because they were "former Orioles."  We've seen investments into the analytics department.  All of that goes into rebuilding the talent pipeline which is now breaking into top 10 rankings from anyone not named Keith Law.

I want the Orioles to get the kind of pipeline that the Dodgers have.  I want to be able to always have the next guy up in the minors and have extension roots in Latin America.  I want a deep analytics department like Elias and Mejdal built in Houston.  But that doesn't happen overnight, and we need to be patient while this whole process plays out.  

[Can_of_corn]

The Padres?  They have had one top four pick (#3) in the last decade.

Might not have been the best example to use.

 

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Padres?  They have had one top four pick (#3) in the last decade.

Might not have been the best example to use.

 

I do not think you need 4 years of top 4 draft picks to compete.   You do need several very good overall drafts and other steps to acquire prospects in exchange for veterans.   

I believe one thing the Padres always had was a decent international program.  The MLB.com March 2020 top 30 for the Padres contained 11 international players, including their no. 3 & 4 prospects, ranked 25 and 27 in all of MLB.   The lack of an established international program puts a lot more pressure on the draft for the O’s.   I expect the O’s to be fully competitive in the international market in the class that follows the Jan. 21 class (which, by the way, will include a couple of potential O’s top 30 guys), but what hurts us right now is the the lack of the 20-23 year old Latin players that could have been signed 4-7 years ago.   That’s the reason our farm system is top 10 but not top 5.    

[ThomasTomasz]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I do not think you need 4 years of top 4 draft picks to compete.   You do need several very good overall drafts and other steps to acquire prospects in exchange for veterans.   

I believe one thing the Padres always had was a decent international program.  The MLB.com March 2020 top 30 for the Padres contained 11 international players, including their no. 3 & 4 prospects, ranked 25 and 27 in all of MLB.   The lack of an established international program puts a lot more pressure on the draft for the O’s.   I expect the O’s to be fully competitive in the international market in the class that follows the Jan. 21 class (which, by the way, will include a couple of potential O’s top 30 guys), but what hurts us right now is the the lack of the 20-23 year old Latin players that could have been signed 4-7 years ago.   That’s the reason our farm system is top 10 but not top 5.    

Bingo.  No amateurs, and no analytics to help turn around a player like Charlie Morton really puts a lot into hitting via the draft.  

Great organizations invest in every area.  We're on our way there, but we can't cash out now.  

[ThomasTomasz]

32 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

The Padres?  They have had one top four pick (#3) in the last decade.

Might not have been the best example to use.

 

I mean, the Astros did it, as well as the Cubs and Nationals.  If it gets us a World Series title, why not do it?  The point is, we have to be patient while the organization is essentially rebuilt from the ground up, because Elias was not given much.  A lot had to be implemented, and a lot was changed.  All of it for the better.  

[Can_of_corn]

But now that the O's theoretically have a viable system up and running they should be fine without having to continue to aim for top picks.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, ThomasTomasz said:

Bingo.  No amateurs, and no analytics to help turn around a player like Charlie Morton really puts a lot into hitting via the draft.  

Great organizations invest in every area.  We're on our way there, but we can't cash out now.  

The O's don't have analytics?  What is Sig doing here?  Or are we supposed to buy that it takes four years or more to ramp that up as well?

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But now that the O's theoretically have a viable system up and running they should be fine without having to continue to aim for top picks.

How to put this?    Having a solid international system in Year 1 probably begins to help your major league team in Year 5 or 6.    By then the 16-year olds you invested in are 21-22 and maybe some of them reach the majors.    (Yes, I realize that every so often a 19-20 year old slips in there, but we’re not banking on that.)

The players you draft start helping the team in 3-4 years if they were high school guys, 1-2 years if they were college guys.   

In all cases above, that’s pretty aggressive.   We know the median major leaguer debuts at 24.   Most, not all, of the high impact guys debut younger than that.   

I think given this scenario it makes some sense to continue aiming for high picks for another year.    But I don’t want to overemphasize reliance on top 4-5 picks.    Good overall drafts that contribute good major league players.    

 

[wildcard]

23 minutes ago, Frobby said:

How to put this?    Having a solid international system in Year 1 probably begins to help your major league team in Year 5 or 6.    By then the 16-year olds you invested in are 21-22 and maybe some of them reach the majors.    (Yes, I realize that every so often a 19-20 year old slips in there, but we’re not banking on that.)

The players you draft start helping the team in 3-4 years if they were high school guys, 1-2 years if they were college guys.   

In all cases above, that’s pretty aggressive.   We know the median major leaguer debuts at 24.   Most, not all, of the high impact guys debut younger than that.   

I think given this scenario it makes some sense to continue aiming for high picks for another year.    But I don’t want to overemphasize reliance on top 4-5 picks.    Good overall drafts that contribute good major league players.    

 

1-2 is very aggressive for a college player that is not a 1st rounder.  Mancini took until the end of his 4th year but didn't real contribute until his 5th.  Means was similar.

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

How to put this?    Having a solid international system in Year 1 probably begins to help your major league team in Year 5 or 6.    By then the 16-year olds you invested in are 21-22 and maybe some of them reach the majors.    (Yes, I realize that every so often a 19-20 year old slips in there, but we’re not banking on that.)

The players you draft start helping the team in 3-4 years if they were high school guys, 1-2 years if they were college guys.   

In all cases above, that’s pretty aggressive.   We know the median major leaguer debuts at 24.   Most, not all, of the high impact guys debut younger than that.   

I think given this scenario it makes some sense to continue aiming for high picks for another year.    But I don’t want to overemphasize reliance on top 4-5 picks.    Good overall drafts that contribute good major league players.    

 

They started ramping up international spending a couple years ago.  So some players should start appearing on the lists soon right?  Are you not expecting any returns until year seven?

I think Elias did a masterful job of setting expectations low.

[Roll Tide]

10 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I asked (repeatedly) what you would take in his shoes.

I'm in favor of at least inquiring after these guys but I wouldn't pay Kim in excess of 30 million on top of the posting fee.

For most players Baltimore is going to be a considerably less attractive destination when compared to other cities.  That's reality.

As for other players coming over from Korea, I bet that Hyun-Soo Kim, Suk-min Yoon and Seong-Min Kim have nothing but good things to say about the O's. 

I have no idea what his goal or priorities are. I’d want to be as comfortable as possible for a foreign player. I’d be asking teams what that would look like. 
 

You asked what I would offer over the contract. I said 2-3 million but might give 5 or 6 over a 4 or 5 year deal. 

I agree that if he wants more than $30 million over 5 years you walk.

For the most part players go where they can get the most money..... “that’s the reality”

 I don’t mind people saying the Dodgers or Yankees have a considerable advantage. But the Padres? Sure based on a partial season....Ok but they’ve been pretty crappy for years and years. The Orioles are rebuilding and we can agree that we have a solid up and coming farm system.

It should be obvious that management hasnt turned on the let’s win switch yet. 
 

I’m an advocate for adding young talent ....Kim accomplishes that IMO. Even if he ends up not being a star.

 

Look, I’m okay if they pass on Kim if they don’t think he’s for real.

 

But the other option was going with a rule 5 guy in an effort to ADD TALENT 

 

Iglesias added a good player that had a really good season. It netted some talent on a player that we picked up at a bargain rate. But, his achievements weren’t that big of a surprise.

IMO, you are not getting that with Galvis or any other trash heap player that is available this season