Comparing the AL East Farm Systems - Fangraphs’ Take So Far

[Frobby]

Fangraphs is in the midst of evaluating all the farm systems.   For the AL East, they have done Tampa, Boston and Toronto.    Their methodology is to list every prospect warranting a FV grade of 35+ or higher.  The average team has about 40 of these players.    

Tampa has 62 players rated 35+.   That includes Wander Franco at 80 (the only such prospect in baseball in last year’s ratings), three players at 60, and nine others at 50.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-63-prospects-tampa-bay-rays/

Toronto has 39 players over 35+, but decent talent at the top end with one 60, one 55 (Austin Martin) and five 50’s.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-39-prospects-toronto-blue-jays/
 

Boston has 47 players at 35+, a healthy number, but only two prospects ranked at 50 and nobody above that.   https://blogs.fangraphs.com/top-47-prospects-boston-red-sox/

I expect our system will be close to Toronto’s, probably a little above with the highly rated Rutschman and a little more depth.    But a lot closer to Toronto than the unbelievably strong system Tampa is sporting.    

[LookinUp]

I've read that Tampa has the strongest system people have ever seen. I do forget who wrote that, but he's been in baseball for decades. 

Not sure if that would hold under scrutiny, but even if it doesn't, if you're even mentioned as the best system ever you must be stacked.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I've read that Tampa has the strongest system people have ever seen. I do forget who wrote that, but he's been in baseball for decades. 

Not sure if that would hold under scrutiny, but even if it doesn't, if you're even mentioned as the best system ever you must be stacked.

But hey, it's not like their ML club can compete with ours.

[MCO'sFan]

I would have to say that the Dodgers system in the late 70s and early 80s is probably the best I've seen. They had four consecutive ROY winners and several more that were in the discussion. Of course we are in the midst of the Rays prospects so we may look back and say that they were better. I think the Rays and their prospects get tremendous hype (earned) and they get every benefit from it. That being said... I'll wait to look back in 10 years and see if the hype was correct. 

[LookinUp]

It may have been a recent article in the Athletic talking about shortstops.

The upshot of that article is that SS is insanely deep already in the majors and even more so in the minors. Tampa has a glut of legit SS prospects, IIRC, but they exist throughout the sport. 

I'm not sure if that's a relic of how everyone is calling all of their youngest guys SS's, likely meaning they're just not moving off of the position as fast. Either way, it shows that franchises are going with athleticism, IMO. The O's have a similar approach.

[MCO'sFan]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But hey, it's not like their ML club can compete with ours.

Well, they had their years in the desert and were historically bad for a long-long time. They came out of it with the pipeline and have been bold in trading away stars for future pieces. I would hope that the Os  approach that level of quality and sustainability. With all that being said, they have the same number of rings and the Os do since they've been in existence. 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Well, they had their years in the desert and were historically bad for a long-long time. They came out of it with the pipeline and have been bold in trading away stars for future pieces. I would hope that the Os  approach that level of quality and sustainability. With all that being said, they have the same number of rings and the Os do since they've been in existence. 

Did they have 14 consecutive losing seasons?

[LookinUp]

16 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Well, they had their years in the desert and were historically bad for a long-long time. They came out of it with the pipeline and have been bold in trading away stars for future pieces. I would hope that the Os  approach that level of quality and sustainability. With all that being said, they have the same number of rings and the Os do since they've been in existence. 

I'm not sure I'd want the O's to make some of those trades. They're indicative of a team that is unwilling to spend, like ever. That's part of the reason their system is so deep. I mean Blake Snell was their best pitcher a couple of months ago and they just traded him.

I actually think that was smart from both a baseball and financial perspective, but it's still got to be a tough pill to swallow in that org.

[Sports Guy]

So, let’s make trades with Tampa is what you are saying?  

[VaBird1]

The Os had 47 last time.  Hopefully that numbers gets bigger this time.

[Roll Tide]

15 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

The Os had 47 last time.  Hopefully that numbers gets bigger this time.

Yeah ...hopefully we have the second best system 

[MCO'sFan]

I don't know and I don't care. My point was only this... the O's continued to make silly decisions to make quick fixes to what was systemic and long term failures. I would love to be in the position that the Rays are in now. I just pointed out that it took them a long time to get here. They've been a strong organization since 2008 but they were laughing stocks the first 10 years. They were good from 2008 - 2013 with 2-1st place, 2-2nd place and 2-3rd place finishes. They stunk again from 2014 - 2017 with 4 consecutive losing seasons. They've never won 100 games as a franchise nor the WS. That's all I was saying. For all I know they could win 4 of the next 6 WS. That wasn't my point. 

[MCO'sFan]

1 hour ago, LookinUp said:

I'm not sure I'd want the O's to make some of those trades. They're indicative of a team that is unwilling to spend, like ever. That's part of the reason their system is so deep. I mean Blake Snell was their best pitcher a couple of months ago and they just traded him.

I actually think that was smart from both a baseball and financial perspective, but it's still got to be a tough pill to swallow in that org.

I think that TB has proven that it's better to replace them (assuming you have the prospects) than to let them go via FA. The Os will never be able to keep someone like a Snell so they need to do the exact same thing. They need to be smart about it and have the scouting and PD departments to pull it off. They have not had that in the past. I am more optimistic that Elias can/has a good PD plan. 

[LookinUp]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

So, let’s make trades with Tampa is what you are saying?  

In the off chance that they ever have a short term need that we can fill, yes!

They really can do whatever they want. It's really the argument some here make for trading everyone when they get value. Do that 2-3 more years and suddenly we're stacked [kind of] like Tampa and set up for a decade. Try to be more aggressive with buying/selling and we could even accelerate that.

I just don't think Elias is allowed to play that latter game.

[Just Regular]

With probably just 1 or 2 more punted years all left on the ledger, I guess the book is kind of closed on whether Buck Showalter a net asset or net liability for the organization?   It'd be quite something if say he were hired as a front office consultant today.

Also in the category of psychobabble, I can kind of imagine 2021 lining up like 2010 except with Adley Rutschman (and Grayson Rodriguez?) as the Buck character.   4 months bad, 2 months good; 32-73 and 34-23 makes 66-96 giving you Dylan Bundy not Gerrit Cole (uh oh...)

I think Means, Santander, etc can keep it better than 32-73, and the second half team could be legitimately interesting.   

If Norfolk Nevin can show out, I could even be sold on the notion he's a superior 2022 cost benefit value over Mancini if that ~8M can go somewhere else on the roster.   My Glass Half Full there can maaybe bat 7th and Renato for 0-3 before definitely being non-tendered for RBI's, but first there's a AAA MVP to try and defend as a matter of organizational pride.  It sucks to be a R/R 1B.

I suppose next CBA a salary floor would be bad news, requiring Rays to retain a few of their better players.   I do look for Peak Rutschman Teams to be able to defeat anyone limiting themselves to 0-4's.   Just gotta figure out getting that $250M+ badly spent up in the Bronx four years out, and outpitch those Jays.