2021 MLB Mock Draft

[7Mo]

11 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

Watson is not a SS either, not for me anyway. The hands are ok, but the actions and arms are not quite what I would like to see. In fairness, I have not seen any video from this HS season. So maybe he is better now. He is likely a 2B or CF, but 55 hit/55 power/65 run. I love the contact, barrels the ball with ease. Really great hands and wrists. It’s hard and loud contact all day. 

I just cannot believe they would have any interest in Rocker, but ok. And Frelick just doesn’t have enough tools to me. I think some of those names are smoke screens. Davis’ swing was much better this season, and he shortened up a once very high leg kick and a severe upper cut. I would be ok with him, but Watson and House make the most sense to me.

If they go under-slot, I hope it is Cowser. That guy can really hit. If he was in the SEC, he would be in the top 5 solidly. Ford is a dude, and I love what I have read. I have not seen a ton of video on him. At this point, I am going to probably wait to watch much unless we take him. There is some talk by Callis he might slide and be an over slot in round 2. I’m not sure about that, but ok. 

Hope you post more often. Really good  stuff in here. Thanks.

You mention Rocker, Frelick and smoke screens in the same paragraph. I think there are a LOT of smoke screens leaking about now.

Grading strictly as a hitter, Cowser or Davis? By a little or by a lot? 

Cowser grades well as an outfielder, to the point that some argue he would be a good ML CF'er. I'm not at all concerned about taking Davis as a less than average ML catcher. You could catch him 1-2 times a week, DH 1-2 times, first base 1-2 times. But Cowser might bring more defensive value. If they are close based solely on hit plus power, does that make the difference?

 

[Sports Guy]

Frelick seems to be the one guy that would be a bad pick.  Not that he can’t be a successful MLer, just that he has no business being drafted #5.  I think he is the one guy I would really hate to see be the pick.

There are others I would be disappointed in compared to who is likely to be there but even those guys I think will be justifiable in many ways.

I don’t think Frelick is justifiable, at least not based on what I have read about him.

Watson seems like a good pick but I am always wary of guys who start shooting up the boards last minute.  
 

I am still holding out hope for Lawlar.

[MurphDogg]

So glad this will all be over soon. This extra month of mocks with little new info has been brutal. 

I agree with SG. You just can't take a 5'9" outfielder #5 overall. If he turns into a solid MLer, then so be it, but there has to be more upside out of a top 5 pick.

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

So glad this will all be over soon. This extra month of mocks with little new info has been brutal. 

I agree with SG. You just can't take a 5'9" outfielder #5 overall. If he turns into a solid MLer, then so be it, but there has to be more upside out of a top 5 pick.

So height determines upside?   I guess that explains why Mookie Betts wasn’t drafted until the fifth round.   

[MurphDogg]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So height determines upside?   I guess that explains why Mookie Betts wasn’t drafted until the fifth round.   

To a certain extent, I think so. There are a handful of outliers, like Betts and Altuve, but Betts wasn't drafted until the fifth round and Altuve didn't have a big signing bonus because of the general lack of great shorter players.

Hell, Marcus Stroman might be the most successful pitcher shorter than 5'10" since Old Hoss Radbourn and Pud Galvin. Stroman probably would have been a top-5 pick and in the conversation with Gausman as the top pitcher in the 2012 draft if he were 6 inches taller, but he lasted until the 22nd pick.

It is just tough to picture a 5' 9" player dominating, and even when we see it, like with Mullins this year, we keep waiting for the other shoe to drop!

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

To a certain extent, I think so. There are a handful of outliers, like Betts and Altuve, but Betts wasn't drafted until the fifth round and Altuve didn't have a big signing bonus because of the general lack of great shorter players.

Hell, Marcus Stroman might be the most successful pitcher shorter than 5'10" since Old Hoss Radbourn and Pud Galvin. Stroman probably would have been a top-5 pick and in the conversation with Gausman as the top pitcher in the 2012 draft if he were 6 inches taller, but he lasted until the 22nd pick.

It is just tough to picture a 5' 9" player dominating, and even when we see it, like with Mullins this year, we keep waiting for the other shoe to drop!

 

That isn't because he's short, it's because he's an Oriole.

[eddie83]

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-top-10-picks-july-7-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

This one has Davis to Orioles. 

[Hank Scorpio]

17 minutes ago, eddie83 said:

https://www.mlb.com/news/mlb-mock-draft-top-10-picks-july-7-2021?t=mlb-pipeline-coverage

 

This one has Davis to Orioles. 

I think I'm just fine with Henry Davis if it plays out this way. 

[Moose Milligan]

Draft is on Sunday, right?

[olddogger]

First round is.

[OriolesMagic83]

17 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

I have read that in various sources today as well. House is rated at 70 power/70 arm/50 run, and he is likely an athletic 3B, or at least a corner OF. So, I wish they would stop calling him a SS, despite the fact that some scouts supposedly said he might’ve able to stick…I’m out on that. Look at his frame. I think he fits Elias’ power profile nicely. All depends if he thinks the swing and miss that plagued him earlier is a concern. 

Watson is not a SS either, not for me anyway. The hands are ok, but the actions and arms are not quite what I would like to see. In fairness, I have not seen any video from this HS season. So maybe he is better now. He is likely a 2B or CF, but 55 hit/55 power/65 run. I love the contact, barrels the ball with ease. Really great hands and wrists. It’s hard and loud contact all day. 

I just cannot believe they would have any interest in Rocker, but ok. And Frelick just doesn’t have enough tools to me. I think some of those names are smoke screens. Davis’ swing was much better this season, and he shortened up a once very high leg kick and a severe upper cut. I would be ok with him, but Watson and House make the most sense to me.

If they go under-slot, I hope it is Cowser. That guy can really hit. If he was in the SEC, he would be in the top 5 solidly. Ford is a dude, and I love what I have read. I have not seen a ton of video on him. At this point, I am going to probably wait to watch much unless we take him. There is some talk by Callis he might slide and be an over slot in round 2. I’m not sure about that, but ok. 

Nobody knows who the pick will be. I doubt that Mike Elias has made a decision just yet. The publications said they spoke with agents the past few days and that was what they are basing this on. I am torn about Watson and House, but those are my two favorites among the most likely scenarios. 

I would be fairly certain that Elias knows who he is going to pick, based on who is there.  Most of these players have been finished playing for weeks to a month or more.  I would hope Elias is focused on who they might draft in the 5th round or later.  I would be surprsied if Elias has told anyone who he is going to pick. 

[Jammer7]

7 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Hope you post more often. Really good  stuff in here. Thanks.

You mention Rocker, Frelick and smoke screens in the same paragraph. I think there are a LOT of smoke screens leaking about now.

Grading strictly as a hitter, Cowser or Davis? By a little or by a lot? 

Cowser grades well as an outfielder, to the point that some argue he would be a good ML CF'er. I'm not at all concerned about taking Davis as a less than average ML catcher. You could catch him 1-2 times a week, DH 1-2 times, first base 1-2 times. But Cowser might bring more defensive value. If they are close based solely on hit plus power, does that make the difference?

 

It looks like Davis will hit with power, and a solid average. The plate discipline is good as well. He looks athletic enough to play a corner OF or INF position. The arm is enough for RF or 3B for sure. If they take Davis, it should be for the bat and not because of his defense at catcher. I cannot support taking a guy at 1-5 to DH him. 

Cowser is a guy you can project more power with added strength, but what is the cost to his speed/agility. More of a flat plane guy, so a swing adjustment is necessary to get more power. But honestly, I don’t think I would do that. He is going to be a high average guy. Just keep working on the swing decisions and keep the high barrel rate. More of a gap to gap guy. He can always add strength and power down the road. I am not sure he is a CF, have not seen enough to make that call. What I have read is that he should be able to stay in CF. 

[Jammer7]

1 hour ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I would be fairly certain that Elias knows who he is going to pick, based on who is there.  Most of these players have been finished playing for weeks to a month or more.  I would hope Elias is focused on who they might draft in the 5th round or later.  I would be surprsied if Elias has told anyone who he is going to pick. 

Not according to Elias. He says he never makes the decision of exactly who he wants to draft until the day or night before the draft. Information changes up to the moment. I am sure he has an idea of a small group. He is talking to the players, agents and scouts until the decision is made. This is what he has outlined since he has been here.

[OriolesMagic83]

42 minutes ago, Jammer7 said:

Not according to Elias. He says he never makes the decision of exactly who he wants to draft until the day or night before the draft. Information changes up to the moment. I am sure he has an idea of a small group. He is talking to the players, agents and scouts until the decision is made. This is what he has outlined since he has been here.

I suppose that might be based on what it will take to sign a player.  If player A can be signed for slot and player B can be signed for 1 million below slot, then player B might move ahead of player A.  I hope they just don't go for slot savings.  Not a big fan of that method, plus we have to hear forever about how Baltimore "always" goes under slot, because 1 out of 2 drafts is always. 

[joelala]

3 hours ago, Jammer7 said:

It looks like Davis will hit with power, and a solid average. The plate discipline is good as well. He looks athletic enough to play a corner OF or INF position. The arm is enough for RF or 3B for sure. If they take Davis, it should be for the bat and not because of his defense at catcher. I cannot support taking a guy at 1-5 to DH him. 

Cowser is a guy you can project more power with added strength, but what is the cost to his speed/agility. More of a flat plane guy, so a swing adjustment is necessary to get more power. But honestly, I don’t think I would do that. He is going to be a high average guy. Just keep working on the swing decisions and keep the high barrel rate. More of a gap to gap guy. He can always add strength and power down the road. I am not sure he is a CF, have not seen enough to make that call. What I have read is that he should be able to stay in CF. 

Agree with all of this. I think Cowser is a safe pick and will hit for average but yea the swing in its current iteration isn't built for a lot of power. Looks like he hits off his front foot a bit, and it’s kind of slappy. Also haven’t seen him in the field really but his gait doesn’t look as naturally athletic as some to me so I also wonder what added weight will do to him speed-wise.