If Lightning Strikes: Whatta ya wanna do?

[AnythingO's]

Never started one before so if I "F" it up, pardon this interruption in your regularly scheduled programming. But "What If". Last year there was thread about the WAR for teams qualifying for Playoffs and my memory says if you got to 25 WAR you were fighting for a WC berth. What if: Outfield of MC, Hays, Santander, with Gold Glove-caliber defense from Mullins, is giving you 8.5 WAR. Infield: 3B, SS, 2B giving you 3 WAR, Mancini is his 2019 self and Stewart takes to DH and they combine for 5.5 War and C chips in another 1.5 War. We are at 18.5. They go with a 6-man rotation to reduce innings load and all 6 starters are healthy and producing average results and the bullpen is above average, assume that gets you to 25 WAR. Zimmerman, Lowther, Baughman are dominating AAA and Grayrod and Hall are ready to move up to AAA. It's the end of July, O's are in WC spot, 300 M have been vaccinated and crowds are coming back to OPACY to see Mancini, Felix and Harvey. Put on your Orange-colored glasses (approved by WC) and pretend you are ME,  "Watta ya gonna do"?? Sell hi and move Santander, Mancini and vet pitchers for prospects? Go out and get a piece or 2 for a run? Stand pat??

[Can_of_corn]

None of the above.

Start some clocks early.

[AnythingO's]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Start some clocks early.

Wouldn't that involve selling hi for more prospects to open spots?

[wildcard]

Well. this is highly unlikely when I look at how the infield and catchers (without Adley) are likely to hit.  If Elias thinks the team is just  going to squeak its way into the playoffs he will sell.  If he thinks they can go deep in the playoffs he will hold off trading Mancini until the off season.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Wouldn't that involve selling hi for more prospects to open spots?

I'm sure I can find a couple 40 spots without trading Santander and Mancini.

[scOtt]

We back off. Trade anyone if we get the right return. Stay the course.

I believe we were on a good course in 2012. Decent team and some youngsters in the minors with a future. (Not as good a course as now but...) And then BAM! We won 96 games and the WC. And then we traded off the future for several years for marginal upgrades to try to keep the major league team going. And went downhill fast.

Stay the course. Long term. Patience.

[AnythingO's]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure I can find a couple 40 spots without trading Santander and Mancini.

Sure but to get them on the 26 to start clocks you have to vacate spots.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, AnythingO's said:

Sure but to get them on the 26 to start clocks you have to vacate spots.

I'm sure I can find a couple of guys in the bullpen I can send down or release to make room for Hall and Rodriguez.

[AnythingO's]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Well. this is highly unlikely when I look at how the infield and catchers (without Adley) are likely to hit.  

It is a delusional fairytale based on offseason reports on Harvey rediscovering his FB, Felix and LeBlanc being healthy and MC (SS sprinting), Santander (ripped). Stewart and Mancini  already in camp.

[AnythingO's]

13 minutes ago, scOtt said:

We back off. Trade anyone if we get the right return. Stay the course.

I believe we were on a good course in 2012. Decent team and some youngsters in the minors with a future. (Not as good a course as now but...) And then BAM! We won 96 games and the WC. And then we traded off the future for several years for marginal upgrades to try to keep the major league team going. And went downhill fast.

Stay the course. Long term. Patience.

This is where I am.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, AnythingO's said:

This is where I am.

For the record I would totally trade those guys once the season ended.

[Frobby]

51 minutes ago, AnythingO's said:

Never started one before so if I "F" it up, pardon this interruption in your regularly scheduled programming. But "What If". Last year there was thread about the WAR for teams qualifying for Playoffs and my memory says if you got to 25 WAR you were fighting for a WC berth.

Not sure what you heard or remember, but over 162 games 25 WAR doesn’t get you to playoff contention.   The baseline for a 0 WAR team is 47-48 wins.    A 25 WAR team would be expected to win 72-73 games.   

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, scOtt said:

We back off. Trade anyone if we get the right return. Stay the course.

I believe we were on a good course in 2012. Decent team and some youngsters in the minors with a future. (Not as good a course as now but...) And then BAM! We won 96 games and the WC. And then we traded off the future for several years for marginal upgrades to try to keep the major league team going. And went downhill fast.

Stay the course. Long term. Patience.

Although you are completely correct in the result, the problem was that the free-agent signings were stupid the trades were stupid. Grant Brisbee wrote a hilarious and very perceptive article about the Royals and the Orioles after 2014, useless every single move the teams made or didn’t make and the result was that the Royals win the World Series and the Orioles had to struggle to finish at exactly 500, and now both teams are horrible. We could have remained good after 2014, the problem was that the moves that were made were, Almost without exception, stupid.

 

edit: https://www.sbnation.com/mlb/2018/8/31/17768472/kansas-city-royals-baltimore-orioles-bad-no-good

 

another edit: this line always makes me guffaw...

Drafting has been a miserable failure since Machado, yes, but there’s also the strange case of the Orioles and the international market. The Orioles approach the international market as if owner Peter Angelos was told by a fortune teller that he would be murdered by a prospect from a different country. 

[VaBird1]

12 hours ago, AnythingO's said:

Never started one before so if I "F" it up, pardon this interruption in your regularly scheduled programming. But "What If". Last year there was thread about the WAR for teams qualifying for Playoffs and my memory says if you got to 25 WAR you were fighting for a WC berth. What if: Outfield of MC, Hays, Santander, with Gold Glove-caliber defense from Mullins, is giving you 8.5 WAR. Infield: 3B, SS, 2B giving you 3 WAR, Mancini is his 2019 self and Stewart takes to DH and they combine for 5.5 War and C chips in another 1.5 War. We are at 18.5. They go with a 6-man rotation to reduce innings load and all 6 starters are healthy and producing average results and the bullpen is above average, assume that gets you to 25 WAR. Zimmerman, Lowther, Baughman are dominating AAA and Grayrod and Hall are ready to move up to AAA. It's the end of July, O's are in WC spot, 300 M have been vaccinated and crowds are coming back to OPACY to see Mancini, Felix and Harvey. Put on your Orange-colored glasses (approved by WC) and pretend you are ME,  "Watta ya gonna do"?? Sell hi and move Santander, Mancini and vet pitchers for prospects? Go out and get a piece or 2 for a run? Stand pat??

I think the first move is let Chris Davis go so a potentially productive player can be added to the roster.  I would also try to trade King Felix.

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, VaBird1 said:

I think the first move is let Chris Davis go so a potentially productive player can be added to the roster.  I would also try to trade King Felix.