Jorge Lopez 2021

[wildcard]

Amazing what Holt has been able to do with two retreads - Matt Harvey and Lopez.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Amazing what Holt has been able to do with two retreads - Matt Harvey and Lopez.

What’s so amazing about it?  Lopez still isn’t that good and Harvey is up and down and was working at that performance center before being signed here.

I think your definition of amazing is vastly different than the rest of the world.

[Frobby]

24 minutes ago, SteveA said:

Lopez's first-time-through-the-order stats, updated:

7 starts = 63 batters 

8/58, all singles.  4 walks, 1 HBP.

.138/.213/.138

.351 OPS against

 

The question is, would he be as effective if he was entering the game as a reliever, at unexpected times of the game, instead of having the predictable routine of a starter.   

For right now, I’m comfortable leaving him in the rotation and seeing how his season evolves, bring vigilant for the quick hook when necessary.   
 

[Moose Milligan]

Lopez has a lot of potential and I am interested in seeing if the Orioles can harness it.  Maybe he's used as starting pitcher that can get you 5+ or 6+ every time out.  Maybe they use him as a stopper out of the bullpen who can go through a lineup once.  Maybe he's a swingman.

He's got better stuff than the "prospects" we're supposed to be excited about, guys like Lowther and Akin and Zimmermann.  If the Orioles can help Lopez become consistent and find a role for him that would be fantastic.  As it stands right now, I think there's a 50-50 shot of that happening.  

[wildcard]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What’s so amazing about it?  Lopez still isn’t that good and Harvey is up and down and was working at that performance center before being signed here.

I think your definition of amazing is vastly different than the rest of the world.

When I look at Lopez history there is not reason to expect Lopez to be pitching as good as he is.    I have looked at  the inherited runs that he is charged with.   If the pen had done their normally good job for him he would have allowed 4 less runs.  That equals to a 4.22 ERA.   And he appears to be improving.

Matt Harvey 2nd start and  last outing were not that good but the other 5  I think he has been good.   Again, without Holt I don't know if he does this well with another team.    

[Moose Milligan]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

The question is, would he be as effective if he was entering the game as a reliever, at unexpected times of the game, instead of having the predictable routine of a starter.   

For right now, I’m comfortable leaving him in the rotation and seeing how his season evolves, bring vigilant for the quick hook when necessary.   
 

That's pretty key.  Also, I'd like to see his stats the 2nd time through the order (not sure where to find them).  IIRC, it's the third time through the order where he starts to fall apart.  

I'm fine with leaving him in the rotation to see if they can find consistency with him, too.  

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When I look at Lopez history there is not reason to expect Lopez to be pitching as good as he is.    I have looked at  the inherited runs that he is charged with.   If the pen had done their normally good job for him he would have allowed 4 less runs.  That equals to a 4.22 ERA.   And he appears to be improving.

Matt Harvey 2nd start and  last outing were not that good but the other 5  I think he has been good.   Again, without Holt I don't know if he does this well with another team.    

So, you are cherry picking a stat to suit your argument?

You do realize that he is the one who put those IR on base, right?  

[Sports Guy]

I don’t get why people keep saying Lopez has great stuff.

While I agree he has a very good fastball, everything else is pretty blah and inconsistent.  

[Camden_yardbird]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

What’s so amazing about it?  Lopez still isn’t that good and Harvey is up and down and was working at that performance center before being signed here.

I think your definition of amazing is vastly different than the rest of the world.

I don't think its amazing but what the Orioles have been able to do is take scrapped pitchers and turn them into something that should settle around a 4.00 FIP, and thats a competitive skill.

Harvey is due for a regression, he is pitching to about a -0.80 FIP/xFIP differential.  But he also a veteran pitcher and he is keeping balls off of barrels, leading to a better than average hard hit percentage.  He keeps his walks down and that should help him out perform his xFIP.

Lopez is on the other side.  His FIP/xFIP differential is +0.80 and his ERA/xERA is almost +2.00!  Lopez has some things going for him as well.  While he is not keeping balls off barrels (39th percentile) he, like Harvey, is above average at keep the hard hit ball rate down and that has lead to a league average exit velocity.  Now you could see that as a bad thing, that eventually the barreled balls will bring the hard hits up, but Lopez is also has been above average in inducing whiffs with a 80th percentile heater that has an xWOBA of only .299 (meaning its really good).  He can set up with his primary pitch sinker and get put outs with the FB.

What Lopez has issues with is the breaking stuff.  While the sinker, FB and change up look like the same pitches (by spin) they also end up in the same places.  The velocity on the FB makes it a good put out pitch but the decreased velocity of the change up means its a meatball.  His other pitch, the curve, surprisingly also frequently ends up in the same place (mid to high outside to a RHB).  So if I am a hitting coach prepping an opposing batter I tell them look mid high outside and hit the slow stuff.  He needs a better curve that he can throw more often in the right places or to scrap the curve and pitch with his better tools (maybe improved changeup command as well).

Regardless, unless he enters a dead arm period he should improve.

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

Amazing what Holt has been able to do with two retreads - Matt Harvey and Lopez.

I don't buy "amazing." I'll buy "It could be -- and in the recent past has been -- a lot worse. Let's see how they each do in May and June."

[interloper]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t get why people keep saying Lopez has great stuff.

While I agree he has a very good fastball, everything else is pretty blah and inconsistent.  

What's interesting to me is he has unlocked 97 this year out of nowhere. I think he's got occasionally good off-speed stuff, but it's very inconsistent. 

[interloper]

Through similar innings to 2020 so far (38 in 2020, 32 in 2021), Lopez has increased his K/9 from 6.6 to 8.4. He's decreased his WHIP from 1.435 to 1.250 despite a similar walk rate due to giving up less hits. 

I still think he's probably a reliever, but I definitely want to see if he can follow this up with another decent start. To me it's about focus for him, not endurance. And the offspeed stuff. 

[Sports Guy]

https://twitter.com/mlbpitchclass/status/1396213780313432072?s=21

[sportsfan8703]

He will end up as our 2nd “best” SP this year behind Means. 

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

He will end up as our 2nd “best” SP this year behind Means. 

Not saying much. I still think he is just a bullpen arm, but we don't have anyone better so whatevs!