We have a bunch of 4 inning starters

[Aristotelian]

Makes you pine for the old days when we had Chen and Tillman going 6, at least. A good bullpen can make up for lack of length but it's not like Plutko, Fry, Scott, and Valdez are exactly lights out if we get it to the 7th. 

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, connja said:

how about throwing 3 guys for an average of  3 innings each, with 3 days rest.  So you need 4 sets of 3, as your staff.   With one reliever who could come in when you need a 4th pitcher for any game.  

I wouldn't be surprised if teams start experimenting with starters pitching more often but never more than two times through the order.  Four man rotation, but 4-5 innings a start.

[Camden_yardbird]

Bad fastballs.  Getting through the order twice is about showing the batters something you haven't the first time.  The old adage was get through once with your fastball then show them the breaking stuff.  And while advanced statistics have blown up most old baseball adage, this one actually seems to be backed by some of the advanced stats.  Baseball savant has a lot of resources.

Harvey:  His fastball is a little slow, gets hit hard.  .308 average, .481 slugging.  14% Whiff rate is way off previous years league average of about 23-25%.  He has tobuse breaking stuff early and doesn't have a lot of variation to show hitters something different.

Zimmerman.  Is fundamentally a junk baller.  He throws his FB less than 50% of the time.  Its slow, and hitters are hitting well above .400 off of it with a sky-high 727 slg. He's actually been elite at getting guys to chase and has really improved his ability to get bad contact but it hasn't translated yet to getting through a second time due to a predictable and lackluster FB.

Lopez.  Lopez actually has an above average speed fastball but it doesn't matter.  With the exception of his curveball all his pitches move in the same direction.  He has actually probably gotten a little unlucky as his x stats are significantly lower than his actual stats which boast among other things a SLG over 1.000.  Lopez's start to the season is exactly the stat profile I would expect this "new and improved metrics run organization" to be able to fix.

 

 

[HowAboutThat]

People get angry with me when I say that Brandon Hyde needs to get somebody up In the pen to start the fifth inning.

I think it’s more important to look at pitch count then innings, but Hyde knows the limits And it is on him to prepare for the transition and he doesn’t. When a guy is approaching his count, Hyde needs to prepare and he usually doesn’t.

[jabba72]

7 minutes ago, Philip said:

People get angry with me when I say that Brandon Hyde needs to get somebody up In the pen to start the fifth inning.

I think it’s more important to look at pitch count then innings, but Hyde knows the limits And it is on him to prepare for the transition and he doesn’t. When a guy is approaching his count, Hyde needs to prepare and he usually doesn’t.

 If anything, im hoping Hyde gets less trigger happy in the 5th and starts trying to let his starters go deeper than 4+, especially if they have a lead. A starter isnt showing much if he doesn't last 5 innings, IMO. Im guessing the shortened season is playing a role in his strategy. 

[Just Regular]

I remember a Sig interview after his dugout year where he talked about learning how to have sensitive conversations with players, and my guess would be some of it was about deployment norms.

Yesterday, the Bruce Zimmermann guy can try the 5th and its small beer, but it will be interesting next year and beyond how the entire basket of now approximately 25-year old pitchers get handled.    There's plenty of sample size in Batters Faced 1-18 to prove your John Means or better quality to earn 19-27, but if you don't have it....five and dive needs some updating.   What rhymes with four or three?

Game theory wise, I think orgs need to develop eventual middle distance pitchers as traditional SP this year until a view of the 2022 CBA becomes known.  I think some of getting more balls in play could be reducing pitcher churn so pacing is more necessary.   But if current roster rules continue, deployment for 2022-2026 (or whatever the term ends up being) could creep a little faster on its path from Old Hoss Radbourn to the Rays' stable beating Gerrit Cole in an October winner take all.

[HowAboutThat]

25 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

 If anything, im hoping Hyde gets less trigger happy in the 5th and starts trying to let his starters go deeper than 4+, especially if they have a lead. A starter isnt showing much if he doesn't last 5 innings, IMO. Im guessing the shortened season is playing a role in his strategy. 

I agree with you entirely, but the fact is he’s got to work with the limits of the guys that he has. He knows how far a guy can go, it is pure fantasy to expect a guy to go beyond his limits a couple starts ago, Zimmerman had I think five consecutive innings of 10 pitches, under those circumstances, sure, let him continue, but get a guy ready anyway. I don’t remember how that game ended up, but if a guy is doing exceptionally well as he approaches his limit, an argument can be made for letting him go a little bit past that, But you still have to get somebody ready just in case.

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, interloper said:

Hyde has been quick with the hook as well. Not saying the results in the 5th have been good, but there's been at least a few games where the guy probably could have gotten that last out of the 5th. Not that I'm criticizing Hyde for it, I prefer a quick hook most times.

Actually, I appreciate that Hyde is not afraid to pull a pitcher at 4 2/3 innings if he's in trouble and he thinks he has a better matchup in the pen. Showalter liked to give the starters that opportunity to win the game even if it meant keeping a better match up in the bullpen. I much rather worry about winning the games then getting guys fairly meaningless stats like wins.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I wouldn't be surprised if teams start experimenting with starters pitching more often but never more than two times through the order.  Four man rotation, but 4-5 innings a start.

I could see this as well. The bullpens would then gain and extra "longman" who probably is better for 3 or 4 innings anyways. The problem is, if you a couple of guys who can get you 6-7 in most starts, they would need the full five days of rest. 

[DrungoHazewood]

12 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I could see this as well. The bullpens would then gain and extra "longman" who probably is better for 3 or 4 innings anyways. The problem is, if you a couple of guys who can get you 6-7 in most starts, they would need the full five days of rest. 

They'd have to do a trade-off analysis and try to figure out if it was better for those pitchers to go five innings every four days, or 6-7 every five.

[DrungoHazewood]

17 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Actually, i appreciate that Hyde is not afriad to pull a pitcher at 4 2/3 innings if he's in trouble and he thinks he has a better matchup in the pen. Showalter liked to give the starters that opportunity to win the game even if it meant keeping a better match up in the bullpen. I much rather worry about winning the games then getting guys fairly meaningless stats like wins.

I remember this game, where Johnny Oates left Mike Mussina in the game to give up five homers and seven runs, including two homers in the 5th.  It was pretty obvious he wasn't going to pull him until he was eligible for the win.

[Aristotelian]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I wouldn't be surprised if teams start experimenting with starters pitching more often but never more than two times through the order.  Four man rotation, but 4-5 innings a start.

Maybe the O's are ahead of their time. (Except for the four man rotation part). 

[jabba72]

31 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I remember this game, where Johnny Oates left Mike Mussina in the game to give up five homers and seven runs, including two homers in the 5th.  It was pretty obvious he wasn't going to pull him until he was eligible for the win.

Well that was Mike Mussina. Not exactly chopped liver there. 

[jabba72]

49 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I could see this as well. The bullpens would then gain and extra "longman" who probably is better for 3 or 4 innings anyways. The problem is, if you a couple of guys who can get you 6-7 in most starts, they would need the full five days of rest. 

I hope the game never devolves into league wide 4 inning SP's. 

[DrungoHazewood]

10 minutes ago, jabba72 said:

Well that was Mike Mussina. Not exactly chopped liver there. 

Sure, but how often do you leave anyone to give up five homers, seven runs, with just a single strikeout?  His season ERA went up half a run a game, and it was July.  Most homers he ever allowed in a game.  He was 2-3 in his career when allowing four or more homers.

So I looked up Mussina's worst starts by Game Score.  This one only clocks in at #18.  His worst start was a game score of zero, on April 21, 1999.  10 earned runs in 3.2 innings against the Canseco, McGriff, Boggs Devil Rays.