Jordan Westburg 2021

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

I’ve never read any of those analyses, but I’m aware they exist.   I’m also aware that lineup sequence makes very little difference in general.   

Is there any team that actually intentionally bats their fifth best hitter third?   

It seems to me that the optimal order might vary depending on the characteristics of the hitters.  For example, you have two hitters with the exact same wOBA, but one has a higher OBP and the other a higher SLG.  In theory they are equally good hitters, but there may be some advantage in putting the higher OBP guy first.   

Now take a lineup with 9 guys with different sets of characteristics.   That makes it even more complicated.   


 

You have to deal with egos and inertia, especially at the ML level.

I have no idea if any teams runs out an "optimized" lineup as a regular occurrence, I'm guessing it isn't worth the marginal gain.

But my actual point was that Grenier batting third doesn't mean the O's consider him one of the better hitters in Bowie's lineup.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

I said I wouldn't argue but I lied.  The 5th place batter won't get up as much as the 3rd place batter, and the obvious thing a team should do is get quality 1st and 2nd hitters to make it even more obvious that the 3rd place hitter is considerably more important than the 5th hitter. 

Douglas Adams had a great quote that doesn't quite fit but is good enough:  "A common mistake that people make when trying to design something completely foolproof is to underestimate the ingenuity of complete fools." 

Seriously, it's math.

Folks have done the work.

This isn't a case of me having an opinion about something.

The Book is of course, the book but here is a quick summary.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

You have to deal with egos and inertia, especially at the ML level.

I have no idea if any teams runs out an "optimized" lineup as a regular occurrence, I'm guessing it isn't worth the marginal gain.

But my actual point was that Grenier batting third doesn't mean the O's consider him one of the better hitters in Bowie's lineup.

I agree with you.   It would be interesting to know why they’re doing it (or batting him anywhere in the top 5-6 spots).   Could be to work on certain skills, I suppose.   

[Ruzious]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Seriously, it's math.

Folks have done the work.

This isn't a case of me having an opinion about something.

The Book is of course, the book but here is a quick summary.

https://www.beyondtheboxscore.com/2009/3/17/795946/optimizing-your-lineup-by

Sorry, I have preconceived notions that won't be changed.  You might as well be telling me math shows the world is flat.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Sorry, I have preconceived notions that won't be changed.  You might as well be telling me math shows the world is flat.  

Fair enough.

[ChuckS]

I don't comment much on derailments, but not since mid-way down page 3 has Jordan Westburg been discussed. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Gentile4 said:

Should Mason McCoy still be on the SS radar? Otherwise, he's taking up space at Norfolk. He's 26.

McCoy is an organizational guy. He might stick around and get lucky and get a cup of coffee somewhere, but he's not a priority play amongst the current group of SS prospects.

[Tony-OH]

29 minutes ago, ChuckS said:

I don't comment much on derailments, but not since mid-way down page 3 has Jordan Westburg been discussed. 

Agreed, let's get the subject back to Westburg.

Westburg is a priority player over everyone above him (AAA and AA) at SS but there is value in letting guys like Grenier and Martin eventually get their ABs. Martin should be moved around a lot since he's probably looked at as a utility guy though there is still some possibilities he could hit enough and end up at 2B. Martin is similar to Diaz, Hays, Santander and Stewart in that he's pretty injury prone.

Westburg is 23 years old so it would not hurt for him to get some PAs in AA over the rest of this season. AS it was pointed out, if 2020 had occurred, the hope would be that he would have started 2021 in AA so it's probably time to give him those PAs there. 

Watching Westburg, he seems much more comfortable at SS than 3B and he has the tools to stay there. Grenier is more steady overall, but Westburg has the better bat potential by far. It would not hurt Grenier to get some looks at 2B or even some looks at 3B on occasion since his bat may preclude him from being an everyday guy.

 

 

 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Agreed, let's get the subject back to Westburg.

Westburg is a priority player over everyone above him (AAA and AA) at SS but there is value in letting guys like Grenier and Martin eventually get their ABs. Martin should be moved around a lot since he's probably looked at as a utility guy though there is still some possibilities he could hit enough and end up at 2B. Martin is similar to Diaz, Hays, Santander and Stewart in that he's pretty injury prone.

Westburg is 23 years old so it would not hurt for him to get some PAs in AA over the rest of this season. AS it was pointed out, if 2020 had occurred, the hope would be that he would have started 2021 in AA so it's probably time to give him those PAs there. 

Watching Westburg, he seems much more comfortable at SS than 3B and he has the tools to stay there. Grenier is more steady overall, but Westburg has the better bat potential by far. It would not hurt Grenier to get some looks at 2B or even some looks at 3B on occasion since his bat may preclude him from being an everyday guy.

I think Ortiz is a potential competitor for Westburg.   Maybe a better glove and based on very SSS this year (.801 OPS at Aberdeen and Bowie in 156 PA), reports from Matt Blood and others, rapidly developing as a hitter.   Too bad he went down with a torn labrum, but at least it’s his non-throwing shoulder.    

[Frobby]

OPS to .900 with that homer.  

[Jammer7]

3 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

Agreed, let's get the subject back to Westburg.

Westburg is a priority player over everyone above him (AAA and AA) at SS but there is value in letting guys like Grenier and Martin eventually get their ABs. Martin should be moved around a lot since he's probably looked at as a utility guy though there is still some possibilities he could hit enough and end up at 2B. Martin is similar to Diaz, Hays, Santander and Stewart in that he's pretty injury prone.

Westburg is 23 years old so it would not hurt for him to get some PAs in AA over the rest of this season. AS it was pointed out, if 2020 had occurred, the hope would be that he would have started 2021 in AA so it's probably time to give him those PAs there. 

Watching Westburg, he seems much more comfortable at SS than 3B and he has the tools to stay there. Grenier is more steady overall, but Westburg has the better bat potential by far. It would not hurt Grenier to get some looks at 2B or even some looks at 3B on occasion since his bat may preclude him from being an everyday guy.

 

 

 

I agree with most of this. I’d like to see Westburg get to AA in the next week or two. It will be interesting to see what happens with Grenier and Ortiz, who are better defenders with emerging bats. Curious how much the organization values defense over offense at SS. 

Minor thing, but Westburg is 22.4 years of age according to Fangraphs. 

[DirtyBird]

What is going to happen here when Westburg ends up better than Austin Martin?

[ChuckS]

40 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What is going to happen here when Westburg ends up better than Austin Martin?

There will be complaints that we didn't have them both in our middle infield. 

[Ruzious]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think Ortiz is a potential competitor for Westburg.   Maybe a better glove and based on very SSS this year (.801 OPS at Aberdeen and Bowie in 156 PA), reports from Matt Blood and others, rapidly developing as a hitter.   Too bad he went down with a torn labrum, but at least it’s his non-throwing shoulder.    

My thinking is that as long as Westburg is viewed as a SS, Ortiz should get as much reps as possible at 2nd base - when healthy obviously.  It's not in Ortiz' benefit to be a competitor to Westburg, because Westburg's a higher tier prospect.  But I could be wrong.   

[RZNJ]

35 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

My thinking is that as long as Westburg is viewed as a SS, Ortiz should get as much reps as possible at 2nd base - when healthy obviously.  It's not in Ortiz' benefit to be a competitor to Westburg, because Westburg's a higher tier prospect.  But I could be wrong.   

You shouldn't put all of your eggs in one basket.   Anyone considered good enough to possibly stay at SS should be getting as many reps there as possible.   The O's have been splitting SS reps up between a lot of their prospects as it is.   Ortiz was splitting SS-2B reps with Grenier at Bowie which is fine.